ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

POISON ART finished behind KISS THE CROWN and AWESOMENDENSOME in her latest but it was her first start since Aug. 26 and she may have needed the race. She also got hung out a bit on the turn. KISS THE CROWN goes from outside to inside and should be in the mix right from the start with the leading rider retaining the mount. AWESOMENDENSOME almost pulled off a huge upset in the same race and she probably would have won if she could have gotten through along the rail after a quarter instead of having to steady. The 2 for 25 5-year-old isn’t the most consistent horse around so not sure if she can come back with the same kind of performance.

SECOND RACE

WATHNAN broke a half-step slow and then rushed up to engage the leaders while going three-wide before tiring in the deep stretch. It was the first time he went this short and he could take a big step forward with the experience behind him. He also sheds 7-pounds with a live apprentice picking up the mount. ULTIMATE DUDE just missed as the chalk in the same race and nobody will be surprised if he makes amends in the third start of his current form cycle. TWISTCAT CANDY, who could also be sitting on a peak effort in his third start back, should be included in any exotics ticket.

THIRD RACE

MARE IRISH DANCER earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure when she debuted on dirt at Churchill Downs last June and this will be the first time she’s been on the main track since. She runs for a tag for the first time and she could be live with the blinkers going on. CHARLIE’S SECRET flopped as the chalk in her latest but she could be sitting on a big effort in just her third start. Considering she is a half-sister to three sprint winners, one on dirt, this just might be what she really wants to do. ONE DIRECTION SONG also failed as the favorite in her second start and she may have had an excuse as it looked like she was a bit intimidated while being stuck in traffic early. She could win this if she runs back to her debut. PRINCESS AKRIS is by a decent debut sire and comes out of a barn that has solid numbers with first-time starters.

FOURTH RACE

The rail can be intimidating for a first-time starting juvenile but R PAPER CHASER comes out of a live barn and her half-sister Historical Tablet won her debut as a 2-year-old last year. Her only other sibling is also a winner. MINAJ didn’t break that sharply in her debut but at least she’s had a race and she came back with a sharp half-mile move. She is the first foal out of a $444K stakes-winning mare who was a 2-year-old winner. GO ASTRAY adds blinkers for her second start, drops into a maiden claiming race, and comes out of a barn that is hitting on all cylinders at the meet.

FIFTH RACE

VEDELAGO has a win and a runner-up finish from two starts this year and is coming back for the same price after being taken by Fawkes who the past five years has a 16 percent strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time. He drew a tough post but he’s versatile and Leyva should be able to work out a trip. FAN BASE didn’t have any luck at Tampa but he loves this course and distance so it is easy to imagine him turning things around in this spot. DOMINATE ran like a horse that could use a race and he figures to move forward for a trainer who has solid stats with horses making their second start following a layoff.

SIXTH RACE

LITTLE BALTAR will appreciate the easier company with the drop into a claiming race and he should get a nice trip sitting just off CHARLIE MOPS who will be the one they have to catch. CHARLIE MOPS took them a long way in his first start in over five months and should be tighter for this. He could be gone if he breaks alertly with Zayas riding. HAMMERS TERROR finished third as the chalk at this level in his second start following a lengthy layoff and could be sitting on a big effort in the

third start of his current form cycle. It’s also his first after being reclaimed by Maker and there should also be an honest pace to set him up.

SEVENTH RACE

REFER won four straight before finishing second in a race he may have won with a better trip. He had to wait for room on the second turn and then went wide while the favorite made his winning move along the rail. He’s coming back at the same level and goes from one good trainer to another with the claim. CARIBBEAN makes his first start as a 4-year-old and he showed some promise last year. Horse that was the runner-up in his race May 6 won his next start and then earned a 94 Beyer when he was the runner-up in the $100K Quick Call at Saratoga. Expecting him to come back with a strong effort for Pletcher who excels with horses returning from lengthy layoffs. BLUE HARBOR shows up just about every time and at the very least should be part of any exotics ticket.

EIGHTH RACE

CAPE DYNASTY ran well both time he ran for a tag and drops to a new low for his first start as an older horse. Nice set of works, Casse has solid stats with horses coming off this kind of layoff, and the leading rider is attracted. ARPINELLA is trending in the right direction, gets in light, and should get a cozy trip from his inside post. LEROY’S IMAGE will be rolling late and should be used in the exotics. First-time starter SIORNO is a half-brother to Grade 3 sprint winner Zavata so not sure this is what he wants to do. Plus, he cost $210K so it isn’t encouraging to see him show up for a tag. Nonetheless, the past five years Biancone has a 30 percent strike rate and $4.26 ROI with horses debuting in maiden races so nobody should be surprised if he comes out running.

NINTH RACE

ATLANTIC GUSTO took them all the way at this level last time and being the only 2-time winner in the field is an obvious threat to repeat. She will have to deal with other speed but seems capable of stalking if she doesn’t break on top. WALKING PRIMROSE is coming of two solid efforts in New Orleans and being lightly raced could have upside potential. She’s had three sharp works here and could get a nice trip sitting just off what figures to be a fast and contested pace. WILDCAT WAVE appears to have one way of going and she almost took them all the way in a similar race April 28. Other speed makes her task difficult but she could hang around long enough to be part of the exotics.