ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, THERESAS CANDYROSE

FIRST RACE

INVESTIGATOR taken from most recent start by trainer who doesn’t claim much, but has success when he does reach in (8-for-33 off the claim past five years, 24%, $2.43 ROI), and his form has actually been solid since stretched out and dropped in class; has the speed to put himself in play from the start, and he is a game fighter in the stretch. BATTERY got buried in the Mr. Sinatra off the claim, and promptly drops all the way down for Jacobson, who does seem to drop to win with success; only other start for the tag came in race dominated up front by a loose Lord Commander. STREET HEAT wasn’t particularly inspiring on the class drop when last seen, though that was a wet track; suppose we could see a better performance off the Rudy/Dubb claim, but it’s not like his prior form was all that great, and his new connections attract money.

SECOND RACE

ST. LOUIE may be getting in a bit tough at this level, but he is better than he looks, especially off his last two where he didn’t get the run of the race either time (buried in traffic two back, and somehow wound up last behind a slow pace most recently, before closing ground too late); can factor for dangerous trainer if he can get a better trip, and if he can see out the distance. RICHMOND STREET couldn’t close down SILVER BEACH when they met early last year, but he may have run the better race that day after coming around wide and then somehow missing a close photo; has experience over longer distances, and he held his own vs. some pretty good competition last year. SILVER BEACH lightly-raced and holding some talent, but also returning from an extended layoff that took away almost all of the 2016 turf season; factors if ready for good layoff trainer.

THIRD RACE

ANALYZEYURSPENDING has experience for trainer dominating the early juvenile racing around here, and she actually went well in that first one after enduring a tough trip behind her winning stablemate; tough if building on that first run. I STILL MISS YOU just getting started, but she starts for a trainer who quietly does a good job with his first time starters, and she is the first foal from this dam, who won 16 times in her career (all sprints, and 10 of them for Englehart), and is also a sister to three stakes winners. STREAM OF GOLD debuted in same race as the top one, and she raced on late after getting off to a slow start and then swinging wide from last to the stretch; can improve. Pletcher’s firster, DREAMS ARE PAZIBLE a threat with Castellano; dam did win her debut sprinting on dirt, but she turned out to be more of a turf/ synth horse, and there is much more turf on the dam-side of this pedigree.

FOURTH RACE

DR. KOY has a layoff to overcome, and it may not be the best sign for him that he starts back on the drop, but this is a good spot for him assuming he can run as well as he did as a 2yo, especially in that first start where he was badly compromised by a slow pace; starts back as a new gelding with Lasix on. OUTRAGEOUS BET disappointed as the favorite when dropped to this level for his 3yo debut, and while I won’t make an excuse for his lack of a finish in that spot, he did lose position with rivals crossing over on him early, and was held up behind horses for a long way before getting clear; shorter distance around one-turn could work. COLONEL ANDY lacked the excuses that one would look for in his last two starts of 2016 - though there was yielding ground in the last one - but he did have difficult trips in his two Saratoga starts, and he holds some of the best turf form in this field.

FIFTH RACE

$25k claimer is all about which one of the seven can get back to one of their good races, as they all have the back form to win this. THERESAS CANDYROSE going off the claim for Rudy/Dubb, which may help her turn things around, though worth pointing out that winning off the claim on turf is not one of Rudy’s strong points (past five years: 5-for-53, 9%, $0.69); tough trip behind a moderate pace when last at this

level on turf. GAME GIRL won three straight after being claimed last year, including her turf debut, where she was able to get loose on the lead; makes 4yo debut back at the level of that claim and should be forwardly-placed. MORE THAN AWARNING pace-dependent as a one-run closer, but may be better than these horses if she catches a set up; no chance when last at this level in race that was run at a slow pace.

SIXTH RACE

DRIVEN BY THUNDER seems a typical improver at GP for this trainer at first glance, and he had the added advantage of being comfortably in control of that pace last time, but he looked green in his first two starts, and didn’t run poorly at all when finishing well after a slow start in one of the stronger maiden claiming fields you’re likely to find on debut; tough right back if experience and blinkers did the trick. TOGA CHALLENGER has run well in all three starts to date, including last one when gamely chasing Mr. Buff (88 Beyer) all through the stretch before settling for second-best; turns back with blinkers on. CINDERELA EL CROME may have to improve a bit in this field, but he’s underrated, and being drawn outside allows his rider some options; new gelding off the short layoff.

SEVENTH RACE

SILLY NUMBERS and MADAME AMBASSADOR exit the same race, and could have made either one the choice here after they both prepped well with little chance considering the way things played out over at Aqueduct. SILLY NUMBERS may wind up being the better price of the two, and she actually ran well in both starts as a 2yo (she was working her way into contention through some heavy traffic in the stretch before clipping heels in her debut), and she had little chance once taken back to last from the outside post last month. Liked MADAME AMBASSADOR’s lone start as a 2yo, and she was rated wide to no avail off the layoff; big rider change for second start back. CATCH YOUR

DREAMS got in just the one start last year, but she took plenty of action for that Saratoga debut, and was gamely second-best in a race where the experienced Alabama Bound got absolutely loose on the lead. TIZZA TEMPER just missed in sloppy sprint that was falling apart late on debut, and she was ridden as though something were amiss when last seen; starts back on turf with a little pedigree, and may be better than she looks.

EIGHTH RACE

Interesting feature a turf sprint full of accomplished dirt horses. ALL STAR RED one of those, but he has some turf experience, and he appeared to run a pair of races on turf back in 2015 that matched up well with his dirt form at that time; he’s improved quite a bit since then, and he did well in the Carter to close some ground over a track that was favoring speed. VISION PERFECT an accomplished turf horse, but one who lacks much sprint experience; good effort over seven-eighths last year, though that course had some “give” in it, which he really prefers. BIG ROCK cam up with a couple of nice performances sprinting no turf at Saratoga last summer, before failing to match up with Grade 3 company at Keeneland; second off the layoff after game try at GP back in March.

NINTH RACE

TAPCEPTIONAL the lone firster in full, though uninspiring, field of maiden claimers to close things out; trainer can have one ready to go right away, and this filly is by a sire who has been excellent first out, and from a dam who was a good dirt sprinter with speed. GIANT ENDING ran well enough to win this in her first two career starts, the only two times she has sprinted for a tag; turns back and switches from turf to dirt in a proper spot. PARTY MINT STAR got going too late to factor in race that was taken wire-to-wire by longshot Double Mane when dropped for the first time last month; don’t really want to be too forgiving of that effort, but she clearly fits well in this field.