ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, QUIET SCORE

FIRST RACE

PROUD TO LIVE FREE bombed first off the claim, but should rebound off that failure against lesser in his second start for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox; on the board in two prior starts for Asmussen and coming off a sharp half-mile in 48 3/5 seconds May 7. LITTLE BIT IRISH enters this off a pair of thirds after a close fourth to begin the year; only has a top Beyer of 51, but is among the most consistent runners in the field. LIVE ROUND should appreciate the drop to the maiden claiming cellar, the $10,000 level, after getting badly outrun after poor starts in each of his two races; very quick half-mile in 47 2/5 seconds leading into this race.

SECOND RACE

The first maiden claiming race for 2-year-olds of the spring go in today’s second race .... giving the edge to those with experience: THERIGHTTOBEARARMS and LULLINGSTONE. The former was well bet first time vs. straight maidens and flashed speed after a slow break before fading to fourth. LULLINGSTONE was also a distant fourth first out after having some early trouble. Her trainer, “Big John” Hancock, had a successful Keeneland meet with youngsters. DIVORCE has fired a few bullets at The Thoroughbred Center in Lexington leading up to her first race, though the quality of horses stabled there is second-rate relative to what is at Churchill, making a bullet easier to post.

THIRD RACE

10-time winner EUFAULA seems to be rounding into form once again after a few disappointing efforts this year after a 2016 campaign that saw her win six of eight. YOOOU DEN is dropped in class for winning claiming connections, and must be respected; has underachieved relative to her odds at betting windows since being claimed, however. CHEYENNE BLUES is an honest sort that looms a major factor first off the claim; showed a liking for this track with a four-length win here last fall for this nickel tag.

FOURTH RACE

QUIET SCORE is in sharp form, having been second in two straight, including a near miss at Keeneland last out, and gets a favorable pace setup to be on or close to what should be a slow early pace. BUDGET CUT runs for winning connections and is dropped in class, but is a filly that seems to want to settle for minor awards, often at short prices. LADY AMERICA figured to need her last race when fifth in a comeback against better at Tampa; inferior speed figures but as a lightly raced 3-year-old, she is eligible to become faster.

FIFTH RACE

GUILTY STREAK is the current class, and though 8 of his 12 starts have come on surfaces other than dirt, he appears capable of handling it, judging by a couple fourths on it earlier in his career; possesses the tactical speed to enjoy a favorable trip from the outside post in this one-turn mile. MY BOY LANE co owns the top last-race Beyer, a 57, with GUILTY STREAK, though LANE’s body of work over his seven-race career isn’t as good; prior to running fourth last tout he had not finished closer than sixth. DUBLINYOURMONEY is in poor form but is dropped in claiming price and showed promise earlier in his career.

SIXTH RACE

GOODS GONE WEST had a troubled trip last out vs. better and ended up fifth; look past that race and he was first or second in three straight over the winter and early spring at Oaklawn, albeit in restricted Arkansas-bred company. MORE THAN SHIRL is returned to the claiming ranks after failing to keep pace with starter company most recently at Keeneland; not as speedy as the top choice. GREEN GOLD broke poorly last out and gets a pass for that defeat; is erratic but dangerous when he puts things all together and gets a forward position on or near the lead.

SEVENTH RACE

The lone allowance and turf race on the card, the seventh race appears well suited for the comebacking DECENT. Freshened after a disappointing fifth to end his 2016 campaign, he now returns fresh and has the speed and consistency to suggest he will be a force; runs well fresh. HOLD ME BLACK

has run one very fast race, coming in a blowout maiden win on dirt Mar. 23 at Fair Grounds, but none of his other races earned him more than a 66 Beyer; handled turf last year in a grass sprint when second but nevertheless was defeated at odds of just over even money in a Virginia-bred stakes race. KIDNAP won at first asking on the grass by 7 1/4 lengths last summer at Gulfstream, and then ran fifth after getting bumped early when returned in an allowance last month at Keeneland in the mud; likely fitter for this and returning to his preferred surface on grass.

EIGHTH RACE

PROPER DECORUM battled for the lead from his inside post last out at Oaklawn and faded to fifth late in a race that was better than it looks on paper; seems more effective stalking from midpack - a style by which he showed his lone victory; lowest tag of his career. BIG COMMISSION stumbled at the start and lost his river most recently at Oaklawn but excuse that effort and he has been somewhat of a threat in most of his races against N2L claimers; lacks speed, which has contributed to him being prone to pieces. PROMISE ME FREEDOM seems to have even less early quickness than BIG COMMISSION, being a deep closing type that can fall 10 or more lengths off the pace; trainer and jock can be dangerous with price horses, though this one is likely better suited to a one-turn mile than seven eighths.