ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, GOODBYE SORROW

FIRST RACE

GOODBYE SORROW easily owns the best Beyer’s in the field, attracts Gaffalione, and will be a short price with the drop into a conditional claiming race. COQUIVACOA ran a big race in her first try on the turf at Tampa and considering both of her wins came sprinting she won’t mind the cutback in distance. INDOMINUS showed good speed before clipping heels in a $30K conditional claimer and fits better here. She figures to be in the mix right from the start and could round out the exacta with a clean trip.

SECOND RACE

FORMAL is stepping up after getting beat in Tampa but he romped the only time he ran over this track and the shape of the race could work for him. He also makes his first start for Bennett who the past five years has a 23 percent strike rate and $2.30 ROI with new runners. AMERICAN TZAR ran an improved race in his second start for Joseph who is winning with 40 percent of his starters at the meet. Toss his race on turf two back and he has a win and a runner-up finish in his last two starts on dirt. FLYING TO HONOR, who almost took them all the way but couldn’t hold off HAIL TO VICTORY April 21, could be sitting on a big effort in the third start of his current form cycle. He will have to deal with other speed, though.

THIRD RACE

AMEN ALLEY hasn’t raced in a while but he has a solid set of works behind him and the past five years Casse has won with 23 percent of his starters that were coming back from a layoff of a year or longer. His two races on turf were solid and the horse he beat in his last start in a key MSW race on the main track at Oaklawn won his next three with 80, 82, and 89 Beyer’s. LOVE CONQUERS improved dramatically when he moved to turf two back and he’s had a decent interim work since he finished a close third at this level and distance in his latest. He has decent speed and if the top pick doesn’t fire he should be able to set moderate fractions. TOAST THE KITTEN will appreciate the easier company with the drop and the last time he ran in a claiming race he won.

FOURTH RACE

BAL HARBOUR is by a below average debut sire but all three of his siblings won as juveniles and one of them, Casino Call, won his debut. Pletcher needs no introduction and we will expect BAL HARBOUR to come out running with the leading rider aboard. ROCKY STRANGE is the only horse in the field with a race, which was a good one, and with a sharp interim work he should move forward with the experience behind him. Both of his sibs to race are winners but neither won at two. ALWAYS A DREAMER is by a decent debut sire and has been training forwardly for Gleaves who can have them ready to roll first time.

FIFTH RACE

One of my favorite plays is blinkers off a speed horse and that is what we have with TWO STEP BLUES who is coming of a runner-up finish at this level. She looks pretty tough without the equipment change and if she responds the way Pinchin hopes, she could be a handful. SISTER DRAMA was in a striking position early but faded when she debuted in a $50K maiden claimer April 14. Her only sibling is a full -sister who is a 2-time winner on turf and she could take a big step with the blinkers going on. NILE’S ANGEL made a strong middle move in the same race Drama exits and could do some damage if she runs back to her runner-up finish in a $75K maiden claimer two back.

SIXTH RACE

ENTANGLED ran an improved race when blinkers were added for his second start and he could be sitting on a big effort here. Four of his five sibs to race are winners and adding to his appeal is the sharp half-mile move May 3.TELLING YOU TWICE has been working well enough and the past five years at Gulfstream Hawkes has a 19 percent strike rate with horses debuting in MSW races. TELLING YOU TWICE is by a below average debut sire but all

three of his sibs are winners the best being stakesplaced Jump Two who won her 2-year-old debut.

BLINDING was coming off a layoff and running on Lasix for the first time when he finished third as the chalk in the same race ENTANGLED exit. Nobody should be surprised if he takes a big step forward for a hot trainer.

SEVENTH RACE

AQUEMINI goes for the hat trick and she overcame a pretty wide trip in her latest win in a $50K starter optional race for 3-year-olds. This will be her first time facing older horses but this could set up nicely for her and she has yet to run a bad race. WILD CHATTER owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure which she earned in a key race where the first two finishers won next out - the winner won her next two with 85 and 86 Beyers. WILD CHATTER has been freshened and could be sitting on a big effort in her third start for Ziadie who is winning races at a 41 percent clip at the meet. CALI CAT is trending in the right direction and should appreciate the shape of the race. HOTTY TODDY should also be rolling late.

EIGHTH RACE

Undefeated NICK THE CARDSHARK, who easily owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure, was gunned to the lead in his second win but he looked comfortable during the early stages when he was sitting just off the speed in his debut. With plenty of gas drawn inside of him he should get a similar trip breaking from the outside post. CHATIMENT won two straight before another solid effort in a $75K stakes restricted stakes where he rallied to finish second behind the heavily favored Classic Rock. He should be rolling late in a race where speed will be coming back to him. FRANCESCO APPEAL won two of three starts as a 2-year-old and in his only loss, a third-place finish in the $75K Birdonthewire, Grade 2 placed $808K Three Rules was the winner and $1.1 million Grade 2 winner Gunnevera finished fourth. He could fire fresh for Pilotti who has solid stats with horses coming off lengthy layoffs.

NINTH RACE

SISTINE SISTA was the runner-up at this level on a sloppy track and the winner earned an 80 Beyer Speed Figure when she lost by a nose in a $35K optional race on the lawn last Sunday. SISTINE SISTA should be tough to handle with the move back to her favorite surface. BAHAMA KITTEN was up against it after the front-running winner of her latest set slow fractions under no pressure. They should be going faster here and Kitten should appreciate the easier company with the drop into a conditional claimer. nd QUEBEC comes off a solid effort in the same race SISTINE SISTA exits. Use her in the exotics along with KENITRA who has finished in the tri in five of her seven starts at the distance and will appreciate being back on the lawn after having a hard time handling the sloppy conditions in her latest.