ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, DRAGO’S PEARL

FIRST RACE

HOT YANKEE is returned to her preferred surface on dirt after running fourth at Fair Grounds on the grass, on which she is now unplaced in eight starts. In contrast, she is 23-4-5-8 on dirt; can win on the lead or from just off the pace and a favorable trip looms from her outside post. DUSTEM CAROLINA is regularly a factor but has twice as many seconds (14) as victories (7); fits on form and gives the impression of a stalker that should enjoy this seven-furlong trip. KATE N ABS REWARD doesn’t appear as classy as others, but gave a good account when a close third vs. males at the $7,500 claiming here May 2 after setting the pace, earning a competitive 66 Beyer; likely to stalk on the cutback to a sprint.

SECOND RACE

SEEMS A FORTUNE chased the leader last month at Keeneland, took command, and held off a classy closer in SUGAR CUBE; envisioning a similar trip today with her laying off stretch-out sprinter KENTUCKY DANCER; ‘FORTUNE should transfer her form to Churchill based on two prior thirds here in as many starts. SMELLY CAT won her first two races of the year before a third last out at Oaklawn for a $20,000 tag, a race from which she was claimed; 6 for 12 on dirt and obviously formidable. SUGAR CUBE is 7 for 15 in 20162017 but was beaten by the top choice last out at Keeneland at a short price and was also upset by LUCY’S REVENGE, a longshot in here, in January at Oaklawn; fond of the Churchill strip (8-4-2-0).

THIRD RACE

ZODACIOUS chased the pace and faded to fifth in somewhat of a disappointment first out but starts to an elite 2-year-old barn, that of trainer Wesley Ward, and should relish the chance to run for a maiden claiming tag; like the angle of a 2-year-old filly facing boys early in the year. TIGERBEACH was fourth of 10 first out a Keeneland in a faster race than the one in which ZODACIOUS started. He also starts for a successful early-season 2-year-old trainer in John Hancock. GRITTER MAN adds Lasix after a fourth and a fifth in two starts at Keeneland; exits a quick contest and looks ready for his most competitive race to date.

FOURTH RACE

RECOUNT is in peak form, having won two in a row and four of his last six; also possesses tactical speed and is perfect in two starts at Churchill Downs. BLACK BEAR chased fast pace in the Count Fleet and understandably backed up to be seventh; excuse that race and he won his preceding start in a comparable optional claimer at Oaklawn. WILBO is wheeled back on short rest after running fifth in a Grade 3 sprint on the grass on Oaks Day; seems a better dirt horse and is particularly fond of Churchill, where he is 3 for 4 on the dirt here.

FIFTH RACE

HIGH MULTIPLE is in good form and appears the principal speed; on the board in four of six races on dirt. ENDURING HONOR ran poorly as the favorite after a troubled break Apr. 28 at Keeneland but has enough early quickness to sit close to what should be modest splits. EITELJORG outran his 34-1 odds when third across the wire in an Apr. 26 race at Keeneland, only to be disqualified and placed fourth for interference. With that effort he proved he could run on dirt after previously racing on Poly at Turfway.

SIXTH RACE

ICE FREEZE has made steady Beyer progress with each start, most recently finishing third at Keeneland with a career-best 58 Beyer after setting the pace; only missed second by a nose that day. REWARD’S GIRL finished fourth in the same race, 2 3/4 lengths behind the top choice; keeps moving down the maiden ranks in search of her level; the

primary threat to the top one. MY SUGAR has been badly outrun in two starts, but starts for the highpercentage Brad Cox stable and plunges from maiden $40,000 to maiden $10,000 company.

SEVENTH RACE

Seven-time winner GAGAOVERYOU looms a standout in this first-level allowance going five furlongs on grass, having been first or second in five consecutive races; slight cutback from 5 1/2 furlongs should be to her benefit. A DIXIE TWISTER was claimed last out for $40,000 by a barn that does well with such types, particularly when it comes to placing them on the grass; good enough to break her maiden in a grass sprint at Fair Grounds in February before a fifth and a second in a couple dirt races. TIZAHANDFUL is speedy and likely better than what she has shown in her last two races in fading to fifth on both occasions; still, just one in-the-money finish from six attempts at this class level.

EIGHTH RACE

Many of these first-level allowance horses are prone to seconds...that includes KISMET’S HEELS, who rates on top for having kept challenging company since breaking his maiden last fall at Keeneland. DAN THE GO TO MAN has been the runner-up in six straight races, four times over that stretch as the favorite; fits on form and figures but a questionably desire to win. BIG RED ROCKET is a cut below the top two in terms of Beyers, but at least is relatively lightly raced with six starts and hasn’t proven he’s stuck at this level.

NINTH RACE

Taking a price shot in the nightcap with MSW dropper DRAGO’S PEARL, a lightly raced 3-yearold with seemingly more room to improve than others. Sixth first out when racing against eventual Illinois Derby winner Multiplier at Fair Grounds, he then ran fourth at Keeneland while showing improved speed; 8-1 morning line price is appealing. PITCH COUNT seemed perfectly spotted in a May 2 race here for maiden $40,000, and, as he has done many times, didn’t close the deal in the final furlong and ran second. SUMMER O FIFTYFOUR has run third in three of four starts and adds blinkers after showing speed and tiring May 2. Although horses can improve with blinkers, it is many times reflective of a trainer feeling a horse isn’t performing to its capability. The biggest result from their addition is usually lower odds.