ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, HONOR WAY

FIRST RACE

GRAN THE MAN, an MTO, gets the nod if this comes off, having romped over more expensive $12,500 foes in slop here May 5. Should it stay on turf, however, LITTLE BAKER gets the call. All 5 turf wins have come on this course at this trip and he comes off a very smart 2nd (beaten just a head) for $12,500 here April 7. He has the speed to get position but can still finish and pass horses. DUBAI BOB rattled off 3 straight wins after being gone 2 1/2 years, and the last 2 wins came on this course at this trip. He then dueled and faded here March 8 and again on April 14 but on each occasion was facing tougher. Today’s drop may get him back on track, and his speed works well with the rail draw.

SECOND RACE

LITTLE CHRISTINA looks primed to bust through and get her diploma. After a dull dirt debut she’s posted 2 strong turf sprints here at this trip, finishing 2nd each time beaten by a neck and a nose. This looks like her day. She’s kin 2 turf winners. OUR PRECIOUS debuts with super works for Fawkes who has wonderful debut-win numbers (15 for last 41, 37%). Just 1 of her 3 sibs is a winner, Warren’s Knockout (11 wins, $457K, 4 SWS, 4-time SP but off the board in 3 turf starts). ORECCHIETTE showed talent in her debut last Sept. 2 when a sharp 2nd at SAR on turf at this trip. She then was no factor Sept. 25 at BEL and hasn’t been seen since. It’s nice to see she returns with no tag attached.

THIRD RACE

This is a real puzzler. MIZZENMYHONEYMOON may rate the slight edge having posted a couple nice 3rds on TAM turf at this distance early in the year. Her last 2 there in March weren’t too hot but all that came vs. more expensive. She’s been freshened and drops. LAKE OF THE ISLES has shown ability on turf including finishing 3rd for $20K here April 8. She dueled and fell apart at this level here April 30. If she can avoid a duel she can fare better. She’s kin to 2 turf winners including Barney R (10 wins, 2 on turf, $96K). INTERMISSION has been facing more expensive and a slow start didn’t help her last time at TAM. That was a good heat, though (produced 3 next-out winners) and her lone sib has run decently on turf (6-0-3-1).

FOURTH RACE

EXPRESS JET has been knocking on the door and may be ready to bust through. He comes off a couple smart 2nds vs. state-breds, but he’s handled open foes before. MCFLY was 3rd, just a neck behind EXPRESS JET when they met last time out here April 22. His tactical speed can have him in the hunt from the bel. DANCIN IN THE HEAT has been a popular claimed item as he’s been haltered in his last 3 starts, which were all smart. Ziadie took him for $16K off a good 4th (beaten less than a length) here March 9. Ziadie is not only sharp off the claim (2 for last 6, 33%) but is having a monster meet (8 for first 18, 44%). He’s freshened him and it’s most encouraging to see him bring this guy back in a spot where he can’t lose him via yet another claim.

FIFTH RACE

ADIOS CHIC has had more than enough chances, yes (19), but 5 2nds show she’s got some ability and much of her best form has been accomplished in recent months here at this level at this type of trip. She’s been a trial maiden, yes, but maybe today is her day. BELLA SUNRISE has yet to make much of a dent in 5 starts, though all came vs. tougher. She has her value cut in half for this and maybe that can get her on track. She also returns to dirt which may be key, as her 2 best races came on dirt. PLANET ROCK came back after 6 months to be dull (10th) on TAM turf March 19 but she

then dropped in for $8K there April 26, moved to a dirt route and put up easily her best race, finishing 3rd beaten less than a length. Could be they’ve found her niche, and the value increase encourages.

SIXTH RACE

SAMBROOK EDGE looked super blasting maidens by 7 3/4 lengths at this trip here Feb. 26. His first 2 starts vs. winners, both at this tri and level, weren’t bad and he was claimed out of each. New trainer Barboza Jr. has phenomenal off-the-claim numbers (8 for last 20, 40%) and is pushing all the right buttons this meet as well (8 for first 40, 20%). ATTACK ZONE made a strong move to grab the lead vs. $8K N2L foes at TAM April 23 but couldn’t sustain his run, finishing 4th. That was a nice bounce-back after a dull run prior and routing is his best game. ICONO ran 3rd 2 1/4 lengths behind the top pick here March 31. That was a nice move forward after a couple dull outings so this level may suit.

SEVENTH RACE

HONOR WAY came back after 5 months off to be a nice 2nd here April 9 (was DQ’d to 4th for drifting out). In spite of her antics that was a good run as she finished 6 1/4 lengths clear of 3rd. It’s nice to see no layoff since for Pletcher, who continues his strong meet (11 for first 40, 28%). WHO’S CALLING has shown talent in her first 3 starts, finishing 2nd twice at GPW and then 3rd (albeit well beaten by 13 1/4 lengths) here April 23 after 5 months off. It’s nice to see there’s not another layoff and she worked wonderfully here May 7. All 3 sibs to race are multiple winners. TRICK MINT debuts with some very nice works, indicating she has speed. Her 3 sibs to race are winners including full-sis Larocco (6 wins, $167K).

EIGHTH RACE

VENOM GIRL dueled as the 3-5 favorite going a mile at this level here April 30 but tired a bit late, finishing 3rd. She was claimed that day by Nicks (29% off a claim) and he shortens her up a furlong, which may be just what the Dr. ordered after she’s faded in the final furlong going longer in her last few. LADY MASTER stalked the pace but ended up 6th going 6fs at this level here April 2. She was claimed by Zerpa who’s an amazing 7 for his last 17 (41%) off the claim. A return to her big winning form here March 11 makes her scary. SOLFATARA has speed and the rail for her first start since she set a brisk pace and faded to 4th as the 4-5 favorite going a mile at this level here March 25. She’s not only run well fresh but today’s furlong shorter trip may help.

NINTH RACE

SHES GOT THE LOOK certainly had the look last August here when she won her debut in a laugher by 16 1/4 lengths. She hasn’t been since which is worrisome, but she’s worked well for new trainer Pletcher, who of course is well known for his offthe-bench prowess (30% off this kind of layoff). She does have to deal with the layoff while facing winners and elders for the first time. SWEET TOOTH HAVEN won her debut here last August in smart fashion as well, actually out-Beyering the top pick (79-75). That was enough to earn her 2 stakes shots. Those didn’t go so well. She hasn’t run sine but has worked well for her return. MONEY OR LOVE won gamely here April 13 and was then a well-beaten 3rd (7 3/4 lengths) vs. open optional claimers here April 29. She shortens up a furlong and moves in against state-breds only, both of which may help.

TENTH RACE

VENEZUELANTREASURE appears headed the right way and may be ready to break through. She was no factor in her first 8 starts but when dropped to this level on turf here in April she posted her 3 best efforts (2nd, 3rd, 2nd) so she appears to have found her niche. MS ELEGANCE was no factor in her first 2, both vs. much more expensive but she moved down in price and posted 2 improved outings here recently. She moves down further and that may do the trick. CLASSIC ACT ran on well to be 3rd going 5fs on this course at this level here May 3. She gets another 2 1/2fs with which to work and that may be just what the Dr. ordered.