ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, TAPNOW

FIRST RACE

SEASIDE SURPRISE has yet to get a decent trip in two starts to date. We really liked her debut when off slow yet only losing by four lengths. A slight regression second out or the lost ground or running against a small bias are all viable excuses. This is the first time she draws outside. EASTER is by a 7% debut sire. Her dam went 13-1-2-3 for 16K. All 6 sibs won with 4 having beat winners including full sister Fourteengunsalute (33-6-5-5, 84K, 0 for 1 in dirt sprints). This race is paceless so any first time starter that has zip has an advantage. LITTLE DIXIE K wasn’t that far off the pace in a few of her Oaklawn tries so maybe that puts her up close and personal today if zero firsters pop the gate. Some good figs before the break and notice the troubled trip in most recent. BLAME FREE is by a 16% debut sire. Her dam went 12-3-0-1 for 70K. Of 4 sibs to race, 3 won with all 3 having beat winners. She gets a late start to racing as she is a 5YO.

SECOND RACE

HOODUE had a poor trip last out but still got a 57 Beyer. That was a good try three back when chasing a slow pace and then possibly he bounced two back. He did run well on this sod last year and regular rider from then gets a leg up today in DelCid. Race flow is above average and that should help this closer. Plus, speed hasn’t fared well on this sod to start the meet at least. TAYLOR is by a 7% debut turf sire. His dam went 4-0-0-1 on the green for 3K. Of 9 sibs to try the grass, 2 won. Hard trying colt draws the rail and might show some speed. MADDY’S PRO is by a 9% debut turf sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0 in lone turf try and this is her first grass foal. A 22% turf barn calls the shots and we like that more than anything.

THIRD RACE

We spy three runners with good speed and that should set the table for TAPNOW. It is never easy to debut at 7 furlongs yet this guy finished third. Two of three sibs beat winners. Lots and lots of local works for this new gelding. New jock has to relax early and wait to make closing move. ZENS SECRET is by a 11% debut sire. His dam was un-raced. Of 4 sibs to race, 3 won and all 3 beat winners. Please note that bullet work on the 28th. ELLIS THE RED did little in his debut but we can forgive anyone’s first start. These special weights are light years from those at Oaklawn. New jock in Kevin Smith so if on track quiz as to hydration levels (a scary scene last meet when a dehydrated Smith had to hold a horse to...prevent injury). Expect speed from the 1, 2, and 6.

FOURTH RACE

RULERS HONOUR is a horse for course that gets back to his favorite surface. We only see two listed works but we’re more than willing to trust this barn that is 19% on the grass and show a flat bet profit. VALSE has some tactical speed and maybe that helps with the first turn. Popular runner ran great for this barn only three back and it came on the lawn at fudgy (Fair Grounds). ZARB’S BELL is 3 for 4 on this sod. Need we go on? OK, not so sure about his price and he will have to beak in a new jock. The good news is a 20% turf barn.

FIFTH RACE

JONAS G. is by a 13% debut sire. His dam went 26-8-9-4 for 104K. This is her first foal. Works are well spaced and there are lots and lots of them. Curious as to price while lamenting the fact that way too many first time staters are terrible prices. TIZ COMMANDER should find the front end and possibly and early breather. Lone local start was best to date so maybe this guy just likes it here. CAJUN DADDY should be content to sit second early on while chasing the 4. Best start to date came here but for a different barn. RUN MY PAL is by a 8% debut sire. His dam went 16-1-2-2 for 14K. Both sibs won.

SIXTH RACE

A HE’S AN O’PRADO draws inside and has some tactical speed but we see a ground saving, stalking, trip today. New connections find a great spot where this gelding can’t be claimed. This gelding is simply a hard trying turf runner that has won 7 of 11 career turf starts. New sods aren’t a problem. RUNNINGUNNINRASCAL has never missed the

exacta on this sod. OP tries on the dirt two and three back were OK. Win rider returns. SALUTE

THE LTJG is another horse for course at 5-3-1-0. Recent form isn’t so hot but that will help today’s price. Tactical speed to help with the trip.

SEVENTH RACE

IDE CLARE SHA is a homebred so bonus points for that. Sire gets 8% debut winners. Her dam went 36-4-6-1 for 35K. Of 5 sibs to race, 4 won with 3 having beat winners. We only see one work but we’re guessing that this filly is working somewhere. DIXIELAND FLASH tries easier and puts the blinkers ON. She did go favored in her debut down in New Orleans. CLEVIUS has a penchant for 2nd and 3rd. When last seen at this down and distance, locally, she finished 3rd.