ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, A GREAT VICE

FIRST RACE

FANCY THIS gets back to the dirt and might find the front end in this spot. This barn is good with their dirt runners and maiden claimers (26% and 29%). That recent turf try was actually promising. EAGLE RISING tries easier but lone route try wasn’t so hot. Distance breeding isn’t the best either. Top connections only hurt the price. The good news is that he doesn’t have to beat much. ALMAGEST is a bomb. We can forgive anyone’s debut especially if two turns on the turf. His dam was a multiple winner when routing. All 3 sibs are winless though.

SECOND RACE

FOREST DANCER has some prior turf tries that were decent. An electrifying effort only three back for Kevin “stay hydrated” Smith. Maybe, just maybe, this mare finds the front end while getting a weight break with JR up. DIVINE SIS has turf speed so maybe this mare will want the front end and put our top pick into chase mode. Local tab is fine and she does draw inside main pace foe. Are double layoff lines a thing of the past now? ADDY’S FLOWERS just won on this sod and did so gate to wire. We gotta think that this gal just isn’t as quick as a few others so a stalking trip is more likely than not. This barn is 1 for 11 with repeating winners but that sample size is rather small.

THIRD RACE

SOUTHERN WIND just ran a Beyer top when first for new barn (Broberg). That 6 1/2 furlongs was no cinch off a layoff and this filly never got a breather. She likes this dirt and figures a nice trip off the two speeds drawn inside (1 and 3). OH NO PETRINO is the rail speed that comes in fresh. Fresh speed is often the best speed. Eramia figures to send and we can’t blame him. I HOPE can pass runners. She has missed the board on this dirt only once in four starts. Her most recent was a Beyer top. New barn has positive R.O.I. stats across the board.

FOURTH RACE

A GREAT VICE is by a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam went 5-2-0-0 on the grass and won 35K (won her grass debut). Of 5 sibs to try the grass, 4 won and 2 won their grass debut. The Wallace barn is 2 for 3 with debut turf runners. We would think that this filly is forwardly placed. If entrymate declares out then we like this filly even more. STROLLIN SOUTH just won on this sod and looked good doing so. This post is a bit out there but she does have some tactical speed. What if she improves second time on this turf? BOLD EMBRACE has a nice even running style in turf sprints and maybe she will like two turns. The Stall barn is 42% with new runners. Sample size is 24 so its legit. Distance breeding is very good. With Eramia up, we have to think that this filly is the one to beat.

FIFTH RACE

UNCLE DROSSEL looked good only three back when winning at Sam Houston. Fudgy foes a tad tough two back and then he caught a sloppy Joe track last out. Now can he get the distance? He is bred for it but then again he is 5-0-0-0 at a flat mile. A good inside post to save a little early ground. CASTLEDERG often fires off a layoff and did go favored last out. Yet to try this dirt and we’re not so sure about price. THISCATSATALKIN has big figs of late. Win rider stays put. Fast works continue. Hello favorite.

SIXTH RACE

TEMPRANO is by a 11% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-2-1-0 on the grass for 33K and won her grass debut. Lone turf sib is 2-0-0-1 for 3K. Who doesn’t like a stretch-out runner with speed that draws the rail and is bred to like the green? PADDY O’LIONEL has never run poorly on the grass even if having only tried it twice. Recent tries are solid and they did come against state-bred stakes foes. BOX KNIFE is stuck outside. This gelding broke his maiden on this sod and it was his turf debut. The blinkers go ON and maybe that shakes this guy up a bit.

SEVENTH RACE

SO SILLY LILLIE has some speed and puts the blinkers ON. Both local starts last summer were very good. We see other speed so that is where this rail draw comes in handy. TOOMUCH can stalk a nice trip. We think she is better with a target and if so then that helps explain most recent. Class drop is noted. TAKING TIPS gets blinkers today and that is a good move for this barn. Off the pace style is fine as race flow is more than fair.