ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, SPRING FOLLY

FIRST RACE

RUDY’S BOY has finished last in pair of dirt sprints to start, most recently in the slop where he showed some brief early speed; may want more ground than this, but he is bred to improve on grass as a son of Midshipman out of a dam who took a couple of starts to improve, but picked it up to eventually win her turf debut, and then become a stakes winner on grass. FAST BOAT a City Zip colt debuting for Clement, who is strong with first time starters overall, and in this situation (2yo first time starter, turf sprint, NYRA: 8 for last 31, 26%, $2.70 ROI). MORRISON goes for trainer who can win first time out, and he is by strong turf influence The Factor; wish there was more turf on the dam side. WALK AND TALK got in a run chasing the pace on dirt here two weeks ago; bred to improve on grass.

SECOND RACE

WEKEELA likely targeting some better races down the line, but you have to start somewhere after over 300 days away, and she is better than these horses if ready; something clearly went wrong in the Diana, but she had run quite well in her first two starts over here, also vs. Grade 1 competition, and she arrived with group form from France. BOREALE a maiden on turf, but a solid synthetic horse in France; unlikely to be able to go with WEKEELA if that one is ready, but Motion wins with these horses: Past 5 years, foreign shipper off trainer change, turf, first Lasix: 19 for 57, 33%, $3.57 ROI. DESIREE CLARY has disappointed a bit overall since arriving with decent form, but she is okay, and can benefit from the drop out of graded stakes company.

THIRD RACE

SPRING FOLLY gets a little more ground to work with after promising debut where she always traveled well from off the pace, but caught some traffic in the stretch before getting through between horses late & finishing well at the end; tough here with any improvement. BARBIE ON A BUDGET makes somewhat surprising switch to grass after pair of good starts on the main track without winning, the first of those after completely blowing the break; most of the performance in the immediate family has come on dirt, but second dam Antespend was a very good turf horse. No real excuse for LOUISIANA LADY on the turn back last time, though there was really no reason for her not to stay outside to try her stretch run; better going shorter, and has run some decent races on grass. SWEET AUGUST LADY debuts for Chad, whose record with first time starters sprinting on turf is okay, but better with 2yos than it is with older horses; dam went 0-5 in her career but is a sister the multiple Grade 1 winner on dirt Hollywood Story.

FOURTH RACE

DIAL M FOR MUGS was off slowly at a big price in KEE debut, but caught up to that field and raced four-wide around the turn before tiring in the stretch behind a blowout winner; obviously needs a break this time, but she’s an unknown in a race where it’s hard to have any confidence in the one’s we are familiar with. FEISTYLOULABELLE has yet to run a competitive race, and she is returning from a long layoff at a tough distance, but this represents a nice class drop for her on the main track, and her trainer is underrated. MAMA’S RED HAT never wins, but she can be around it when properly spotted (5 in the money finishes from 10 NY starts vs. maiden claimers sprinting on dirt).

FIFTH RACE

TOO FAST TO PASS failed to get involved in NY debut nine days ago, but he also didn’t get the most aggressive ride in the world after breaking with the leaders and then giving away position in a race where the 1st and 3rd finishers were both part of the pace all the way around there; 13-time winner moves outside off the claim and picks up Castellano, who never gives anything away. LOS BORRACHOS steps back slightly after coming with a game finish for 3rd into a fast pace on 5/3; has acquitted himself well as a dirt sprinter, and