ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, STARR OF QUALITY

FIRST RACE

RYE PATCH and SKY PREACHER, a pair of sharp geldings that won their most recent starts, are tough to separate in this $50k claiming turf route. The slight edge is to RYE PATCH, whose forwardly placed style should lead to a cozy trip positioned second behind the speed. ‘PATCH was claimed off a last-out win for $40k; he will be positioned in front of his main rival when they turn for home. But SKY PREACHER will be rolling. His last-out win for a $50k tag was flattered when runner-up Poshsky returned to win a N2X/optional $62.5k claiming race. ‘PATCH and ‘PREACHER are a couple honest veterans that will slug it out in the opener. HOLLYWOOD DON is the aforementioned speed. He stretches out following a runner-up finish in a $50k claiming turf sprint. He will be winging out front, with a chance to steal it. ABBEY VALE moves back up in class following a sharp $32k claiming win.

SECOND RACE

The Cal-bred homebred BOOKIES LUCK faces a pair of fast-working and expensive 2yo auction purchases in RUN AWAY and HONEYMOONZ OVER in this maiden sprint. The debut by BOOKIES LUCK was a disappointing third at even-money, but he showed enough run to suggest he can move up second time out. BOOKIES LUCK was wellbacked facing state-bred maidens, but lost ground racing wide, raced greenly and went one-paced. He came back with a sharp half-mile work since raced; trainer Jeff Bonde popped last week with a second-start maiden filly (Ismelucky) that showed run in her losing debut against Cal-breds before winning second time out against open company. Same pattern with the colt BOOKIES LUCK, sibling to a pair of 2yo stakes winners (Only You Babe, Can Can Babe). RUN AWAY worked fast at the Barretts preview (10.0 seconds), and was purchased for $325k. His sharp works have continued for trainer Simon Callaghan at Santa Anita; looks like he is ready to roll. A similar comment applies to Doug O’Neill-trained HONEYMOONZ OVER, who also worked fast (10.0) and was purchased for $360k. Both 2yos appear “live” first time out.

THIRD RACE

Most of the familiar faces in this N1X turf mile are stuck at the level, having lost the first condition multiple times. It might be a good spot to take a shot at a price with UNAPOLOGETIC. He won a starter allowance first start off the $40k claim by Bill Spawr in February, but then hit a tricky patch on the turf course next out in a N1X and did not finish. He returns two months later at the same class level, with the same rider, for a stable that has had a banner 2017. The presence of three stretch-out sprinters suggests the pace will be enough to flatter his late kick. UNAPOLOGETIC is poised to upset. TEMPLE KEYS and DIPLODOCUS are a pair of evenly matched Richard Baltas trainees with figures that fit at this level. TEMPLE KEYS shortens to the mile distance of both career wins; he has been facing decent company. DIPLODOCUS has not started since December, but Baltas comebackers often are ready to roll. DADDY D T stretches out with apprentice rider Evin Roman aboard. Speed and weight break probably means he will try to steal it.

FOURTH RACE

STARR OF QUALITY was in tough last out in a $200k sprint stakes; she drops back into a starter allowance and stretches back to the mile distance at which she won two straight in winter. Freshened since early April, returning to the claiming/starter allowance level, in light under apprentice Roman, STARR OF QUALITY looks like the most probable winner on the card. ROAD TEST has improved each successive start. She was claimed from a maiden-50 win last out. The runner-up Jill Madden up returned to win with a sharp 71 Beyer; fifthplace finisher Online Request came back to win a maiden-20 next out. The point is, ROAD TEST beat a good field of maidens. She fits in this starter allowance. PISTOL PACKIN ROSE is another that has improved each successive start. She finished second last out on turf, earning a big number for this level, 78 Beyer. Any surface will do, she will be forwardly placed throughout.

FIFTH RACE

TRUE VALOR makes the first start of his 3yo season in a $30k maiden-claiming sprint; it is an optimistic signal his connections employ the “ineligible-to-be-claimed” waiver. The colt’s form in New York and Kentucky at age 2 was decent; he finished in the money both maiden-claiming starts. Furthermore, his closing style should play well in a field with plenty of suspect speed. Although trainer Keith Desormeaux is not known for firing off long layoffs, the past three years he is 3-for-11 with maidens off six months or more. That stat, and the no-claim waiver, suggest TRUE VALOR is ready first start back. First-time starter BLOODLETTING has speed in his pedigree, and a stable that occasionally fires with maiden-claiming first-timers. MAGICAL MORE returns to the conditions of his two best races. Those were dirt sprints in February-March. In a race likely to unfold at a strong pace, his closing style should play well. TIZ INDY is fast, and so is MY FARMER. The latter is probably the speed of the field. He could steal it, although his sporadic workout pattern since his most recent start three weeks ago is hardly a sign of confidence.

SIXTH RACE

RAINBOW SQUALL cuts back to a sprint after a sharp runner-up finish around two turns. He finished more than two lengths clear of third while earning the best figure of his career. The gelding has enough speed to be forwardly placed behind the pace in this downhill sprint, and should be in the right spot to pounce at the dirt crossing. SOUTHERN KEYS bombed last out, under the same conditions as this starter allowance. However, his maiden-75 victory two back makes him a legitimate threat. Have to believe he had an excuse for finishing last; trainer Mike Machowsky brings him right back at the same level. The difference is he drew the advantageous outside post this time. Last out he set the pace from the rail before he backed up. PROFESSOR CINCH finished a solid second last out in his first start of the season. He has speed, but does not require the lead, and could get a comfortable trip just off the pace. Also-eligible SUPER ECHELON was claimed from a daylight maiden-50 win. He is an improved 3yo this year since he was gelded.

SEVENTH RACE

OLD MAN LAKE stretches out two weeks following a comeback sprint that was simply too fast for him to keep pace. The veteran gelding can handle a one-mile distance, this $16k claiming race is an easier spot. DYNAMIC SCORING backed up in both recent starts, but those races were on turf and synthetic. His three career wins were on dirt; he returns to preferred footing for this and drops from $25k claiming to $16k. PRESIDENTSKY meets easier and will be rolling late. FRAC CANDY and SUDDEN SAM are stretch-out sprinters that will keep the pace honest.

EIGHTH RACE

BLAME JOE faced good special-weight maidens last year as a 2yo, and was not quite good enough to get the job done. He has changed trainers to meet leader Peter Miller, drops to maiden-75 and makes his first start since he was gelded. MILHAUD went too fast on the front end, and tired to third while making his first start since winter 2015. Like the top choice, he drops from specialweight and can improve with a comeback under his belt. First-time starter MR. BRIGHTSIDE makes his debut for trainer that has won with four of his last 10 first-time starters.