Partly Mocha, Bal a Bali should improve on firm turf

For better or worse, I was in a forgiving mood when handicapping Saturday’s stakes action across the country, willing to forgive what some might consider to be faults in the past performances of my selected horses.

One area of forgiveness applies to horses who raced over the Churchill Downs turf course on Oaks and Derby days, when the grass was rated “good” by the track but appeared to be better described as “yielding” or “soft,” given that more than an inch of rain saturated the course leading up to and including those race days.

This means I’m willing to give a pass to those who didn’t fire over these wet conditions, and the scenario applies a couple of times in stakes on Saturday, first in the five-furlong Mighty Beau overnight stakes on the Churchill grass with Partly Mocha and later in the day when Bal a Bali races in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita.

Partly Mocha, a two-time stakes winner this year on firm ground at Sam Houston who rallied to be a close fourth in the Grade 3 Shakertown at Keeneland on April 8, also on dry turf, was a non-factor in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint on May 5. He could offer none of his customary rally, finishing seventh, beaten seven lengths by Green Mask, a horse he was only a couple of lengths behind at Keeneland.

If one looks past that sound defeat and, for that matter, discounts the longshot runner-up finish from Latent Revenge in that race, reasoning that he handled the conditions better than most, then a favorable betting opportunity exists in the Mighty Beau.

Partly Mocha sits at 6-1 on the morning line, while Latent Revenge is the 3-1 favorite. Compare that to their odds in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint, where they were matched against a better field, with Partly Mocha at nearly 8-1 and Latent Revenge at 23-1.

As for Bal a Bali in the Shoemaker Mile, the same wet-turf reasoning applies. He won the Frank Kilroe Mile over firm ground at Santa Anita on March 11, beating What a View and Bolo, again two of his rivals Saturday, before a fifth in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, where he regressed from a 103 Beyer Speed Figurend to a 93.

Now, Bal a Bali is back on his home course and, with hot, sunny weather forecast, is likely to catch the firm ground he desires.

Beyond all that, the pace makeup of the race is favorable to Bal a Bali, with both What a View and Heart to Heart at their best racing on the lead. With those two speedy rivals drawn inside him, Mike Smith should be able to place Bal a Bali in a pocket, ground-saving trip right behind them before pouncing coming into the lane.

Union Jackson can fire fresh

My last area of forgiveness involves a horse returning from a layoff in a stakes race: Union Jackson in the Grade 3 Aristides at Churchill.

Although I am typically reluctant to play layoff horses out of action for more than three months, believing such types to be at a fitness disadvantage, I make exceptions with sparsely raced types, particularly those who have already won when racing fresh.

That’s him. The 5-year-old Union Jackson has raced just nine times, putting him in the infrequently raced category, and having won three times following layoffs, he is also proven off the bench.

Admittedly, Union Jackson has not yet established himself as a graded stakes winner, but aside from the favored Limousine Liberal, most of those entered in the Aristides don’t seem like legitimate graded horses. And even Limousine Liberal might not be as good as his win in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day suggests on paper.

That day, he sat a perfect stalking trip behind a pair of dueling rivals, got the jump on the late runners coming into the stretch, and just held off Awesome Slew, who got shuffled back early and then had to duck and dive his way through the stretch.

I don’t see much separating Limousine Liberal and Union Jackson. They were only a half-length apart when Limousine Liberal was second in this race last year and Union Jackson finished third.

With Union Jackson the better price Saturday at 3-1 on the line, compared with 9-5 on Limousine Liberal, I’m going with the better value in the Aristides.