ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, SPOTTY ZEALOUS

FIRST RACE

SWEETRAYOFSUNSHINE a 17-time winner now looking for three in a row for her third different barn, this time for a trainer who has been finding the right spots for his horses since arriving in NY for this meet; tactical speed goes a long way. JEMMABELLE a closer who will need some pace to develop in front of her, but there is at least a chance of that happening, and she is two-for-three in claiming company on dirt; drops back down and turns back. SPUN COPPER back to a more appropriate level after trying tougher in the mid last time, and she has been in good form for this trainer; defeated SWEETRAYOFSUNSHINE two back on the square.

SECOND RACE

MADAME AMBASSADOR ran well in her first two starts, and don’t think she got the best trip in the world last time when taken back and kept down to the inside behind horses for a long way in a race that was taken wire-to-wire; drops. GRANDE BESO back quickly after having her last race rained off and then getting left behind by a blowout winner; better on turf for a dangerous trainer, and thought she may have run a little better than PANA ELIANNE when just failing to catch her for 2nd last time. PANA ELIANNE was green in her Gulfstream debut, but she also didn’t do all that much running; dropped to this level for her NY debut last time, and was no match after a good trip, and she just held 2nd over GRANDE BESO.

THIRD RACE

SIDING SPRING dropping out of a couple of tougher races, where he ran well enough, and he projects for a nice trip here right up there either on or near the lead; went well in winning both allowance races at GP over the winter, including that upset over likely favorite here TOMBELAINE. TOMBELAINE seems to prefer the shorter one-turn races he gets around here, and he did look good running over that field last time once turned loose at the top of the stretch, and then holding off a good horse in Get Jets late; no real excuse when held off by the top one at GP, and he looks likely to be a little overbet here. JAN’S RESERVE couldn’t reach after a three-wide trip when back on turf in evenly-paced race last time; chances improve with some pace, and he will occasionally come through with a race that would get him something here. Not a huge DOWSE’S BEACH fan, but he has tactical speed from the outside, and Cox has some pretty strong numbers off the claim.

FOURTH RACE

CLEO dropping off the layoff for 3yo debut, but that seems logical based on her two starts last summer, and this is the right kind of field if she can improve a bit; liked that she was showing some early interest on the stretch out last time, before taking back after heading wide to the first turn, and that was a pretty good field. RARE GEM logical here on her typical stuff, especially on turf, though she has lacked any real punch in the stretch right along; don’t really care about that dirt try last time, but do like that Castellano, who sticks, sent her off to the lead, as that may give her a better chance, assuming they try those tactics again. FISCAL DISCIPLINE is another who got into contention but couldn’t find a finish in her turf routes out of town; back to turf after failed dirt sprint try off the claim.

FIFTH RACE

SPOTTY ZEALOUS won easily despite stumbling at the start when in for the price for the first time vs. maidens, then actually ran pretty well in a tougher spot despite getting outrun to the lead off the claim; got a crazy bad ride last time when making the lead up the rail on a day when inside speed was strong, only to rip back out of there to

concede and then chase from the outside, before unsurprisingly getting wired by an near impossible horse. LIFELONG DREAMER hasn’t run a fast race yet, but this is only his second start as a 3yo, and he has flashed some pretty good speed out of town; trainer going good here lately. CONDO KING can beat these on memory; question is: How much did he need that first race back where offering only a brief chase and then tiring out in the stretch while on a precipitous drop? AMERICAN PIONEER another with a couple of races that would lead to a big win here, but his recent form is not good. POSSE NEEDED debuted in a pretty strong race last summer at Saratoga and earned a solid figure while racing on late for a piece after lacking the early speed to sprint; liked the way she was staying on off the layoff in sprint that may be better than the figure makes it look, and she is bred to handle the distance. Expect DANCING ALL NIGHT to be over-bet here off sloppy track debut at Chruchill where she nearly overcame a poor start to prevail; bred to handle the stretch out for Shug. DEFROCK has a layoff to overcome, but she improved when stretched out on turf last summer, and her lone dirt start came over a sloppy track sprinting on debut, and she was just left alone after getting outrun early in that spot; Lasix on. PRESUMPTUOUS a threat if she can reproduce 86 Beyer from her last race, which came over this track and trip behind Holy Helena, who was a few lengths ahead of POSSE NEEDED in that April sprint; want to see her do it.

SEVENTH RACE

SAMMY WONDER STONE dropped in class and dominated three-life claimers here last time, but thought he went well with a less-than-ideal trip at this level one start prior, and he is clearly a fit on figures, having earned three of the top numbers in the field from his five 2017 starts; back up off the claim for a dangerous trainer (Arriaga 3-for-9 off the claim over the past year, $5.60 ROI). PLANET TRAILBLAZER cutting back to sprint for first time since winning his debut from last-to-first at a price, though should be noted that that race featured a fast pace that completely fell apart at the end; has been pace-compromised right along as a router, so don’t mind him cutting back here looking for some pace to develop. Nothing too flashy about CINDERELA EL CROME, but he is racing in good form right now, and has some speed to put into play; everyone in the field, save lightly-raced 3yo I GET SMOOTH, has run faster than his best at least once to this point.

EIGHTH RACE

PINCHBECK didn’t get much of a figure for her maiden win last time, but liked the way she finished that race off, and she had a couple of trips vs. open company on turf at Tampa prior to arriving. TABLE FOR SIX hasn’t hit the wire first since taking her debut back in the summer of 2015, and she was a frustrating follow last year while going 0-6, and hitting the board in all six races; has to be ready off the layoff, then needs a trip. TIZ A KITTEN switching to 7lb. bug after game effort for 2nd last time behind a winner who received a perfect trip; in form right now for Maker. ALABAMA BOUND can win here, but she was not good off the layoff, and she had one soft trip after another while compiling a solid 2016 record.

NINTH RACE

SKEET SHOT has caught a couple of wet tracks since decent debut at this level on the inner, including that sloppy track last time when trying to stretch out off the claim, and he stumbled at the start before getting out-finished for 2nd as the favorite two starts back; one more chance turning back in wide open finale. FILIUS SCAT one of three interesting firsters in this kind of field, and his trainer in underrated with first time starters (21%, $3.76 ROI over past five years); now 4yo was preparing for a summer debut last year before being put away, and he is a half to 10 winners from this dam, including stakes winner Swag Daddy. SOURCE CONTROL was part of a solid pace for the level last time, and he can easily win here, though he has had his chances already, and he is not one who appears to leave it all on the track at crunch time. GIROLIRA debuts for relatively new trainer who is 2-for-4 with first time starters since starting out on his own; both of those debut winners got bet, so the board may offer some clues with this one. 2150 Hempstead Turnpike Elmont, NY 11003 (718) 641-4700

Main track: One and one-half Mile, oval. Widener turf: One and 5/16 Miles, 27 Feet. Inner turf: One and 3/16 Miles, 103 Feet. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,097 Feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick Four, Superfecta and Grand Slam wagering: 24% ■ Pick 5: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering: 24% (15% on non-carryover days)