Breaking Lucky can fill exacta in Foster

Watching Breaking Lucky get bumped, squeezed, and shuffled back into the first turn of the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes on Kentucky Oaks Day, I made a mental trip note, eager to forgive his distant fifth-place finish and bet him in his next race.

A little more than six weeks later in Saturday night’s Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs, that wagering time has come, though I won’t be following through in the win pool, as I had originally intended. Not viewing him as being in the same league as the favored Gun Runner, one of the elite older handicap horses in North America, I instead will focus on using Breaking Lucky underneath Gun Runner in the exacta.

A straight Gun Runner-Breaking Lucky exacta, if successful, still would result in a legitimate payoff with contention outside of the favorite running deep.

I suppose there is a chance that Gun Runner might need a race and an upset could occur, but based on his recent training, affinity for Churchill Downs, and history of running well fresh, it seems risky to bet on him going off form.

Back to Breaking Lucky: He is an interesting trip-handicapping play in that he is coming off consecutive troubled runs. Prior to the Alysheba, things didn’t work out for him in the New Orleans Handicap, where he was beaten by Honorable Duty.

Typically a stalker, Breaking Lucky ended up on the lead that day and performed well given the circumstances to finish second after getting hounded into demanding splits of 46.63 seconds for a half-mile and 1:10.35 for six furlongs. He had every right to lose badly but didn’t, finishing only a neck behind Honorable Duty.

As of Thursday, forecasts called for partly cloudy skies and just a 20 percent chance of rain Saturday, strongly suggesting that the main track will be fast. And that’s the kind of track that Breaking Lucky wants at Churchill.

He has gone unplaced twice at Churchill on wet surfaces but was second on a fast track to Gun Runner in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap on Nov. 25. And that’s an outcome I wouldn’t mind seeing reoccur.

Big World offers value in Fleur de Lis

One race before the Stephen Foster, a good wagering opportunity exists – this time in the win pool – on Big World in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis.

Although her accomplishments and speed figures don’t compare to those of the favored Forever Unbridled, she has a recency advantage, being fit and sharp, while Forever Unbridled hasn’t been out since November, when she was third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

It is not unreasonable to think that Forever Unbridled might need a race to return to top fitness after a layoff of 7 1/2 months and surgery for an ankle chip in her left front, and if that proves to be the case, this race is more competitive than how the public figures to bet it.

Although Big World enjoyed a favorable trip in winning the La Troienne earlier at this meet on the lead, and against a field that seemed soft by Grade 1 standards, it is important to realize that she made her own luck in terms of trip. A filly with tactical speed, she often finds herself in a sweet spot, either close to a slow pace or stalking when fractions are quick.

A 6-1 shot on the morning line, she looks far more deserving of odds of 3-1 or 4-1 in the Fleur de Lis given Forever Unbridled’s time away.

Kasaqui can end drought

Another horse who seems likely to slip through the wagering cracks Saturday is Kasaqui, a 6-1 outsider in the Grade 2 Wise Dan, a one-mile turf race in which little seems to separate the leading contenders.

Although winless since taking the Arlington Handicap last July, he has run well on a number of occasions since then. He was a surprising second in the Arlington Million last August and this year ran second in a couple of graded stakes before his fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day.

Breaking from the inside that day – which was not the place to be on that soggy turf course – he ran solidly to be fourth behind Divisidero, Beach Patrol, and Oscar Nominated and ahead of a number of classy turf horses.

As well as he ran, he is probably a little better on firm ground, which he should get Saturday. His two wins since being imported to the United States and his highest Beyer Speed Figures have come on firm going.