Pace setup favors Honorable Duty

Stakes aficionados might have to adjust their racing schedules Saturday since the big Stephen Foster Handicap program at Churchill Downs is an evening one. The Grade 1, $500,000 Foster tops a card that also includes four other graded stakes. And Santa Anita has a Grade 2 stakes doubleheader consisting of the Summertime Oaks and the Honeymoon, which are worth $200,000 each.

Stephen Foster Handicap

This edition of the Foster might be a matter of Gun Runner being that much better than anyone else. The 111 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in winning the Clark Handicap three starts back over the Churchill Downs main track and his 110 Beyer from the Razorback Handicap two starts back in his first start this year are higher than any figure earned by the rest of this field in 123 combined career starts.

Moreover, there was nothing wrong with Gun Runner’s second-place finish to the sensational Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup last out. Sure, Gun Runner was soundly beaten, but he finished far ahead of the 12 others in that race, and Arrogate, after all, is one of the best horses we’ve seen in years.

That said, Gun Runner seems to be a different, far more effective horse when he controls the early pace. That is not to say that Gun Runner can’t run well when he’s not cruising in front early. But the Clark, Razorback, and Dubai World Cup were easily the best races he ever ran, and he essentially had easy, uncontested early leads in all of them.

This is noteworthy because it does not look like Gun Runner can control the pace Saturday without paying a heavy price in the form of fast fractions. Bird Song has speed and the inside post, and he has no chance if he doesn’t go early. Stanford is another horse who needs to be close early – I believe he is clearly at his best when he has the early lead – and must go from his outside post.

Maybe this quality pace competition won’t matter to Gun Runner, and he’ll win anyway. But I feel that Gun Runner will see a far less favorable pace scenario than he did in his excellent recent efforts.

I’m taking Honorable Duty for the upset. Honorable Duty deserved better than to finish second to Bird Song in the Alysheba Stakes on the Kentucky Oaks card because Bird Song got totally loose on an easy, unmolested early lead and stayed close to a rail that was golden that day.

In fairness, Honorable Duty also raced near the inside much of the way before having to move outside in the stretch. But Honorable Duty was highly compromised by the slow pace and projects to get a much more favorable pace setup Saturday night. In fact, the pace setup might prove to be much like the one he got when he won the New Orleans Handicap two starts back with a 105 Beyer that makes him tough if Gun Runner does not fire his best shot.

Regret Stakes

This race follows the Foster, and I’m hoping trainer Brendan Walsh pulls off a natural double. Walsh trains Honorable Duty and my choice here, Proctor’s Ledge. I don’t mind leaning on Walsh. As of this writing, he’s batting only .387 at this Churchill meet.

Proctor’s Ledge’s fourth-place finish in the Edgewood Stakes last time out might seem like a step back, but her effort was better than it looks on paper. Not only was she four wide around both turns, she was also too close to the early pace, which muted her late kick. Proctor’s Ledge’s late kick was on display in a solid third in the Appalachian Stakes two back and in an impressive win at Gulfstream three back, and my hope is that she returns to a deeper closing style Saturday night.

Summertime Oaks

Faypien won her last two races with good Beyers and has trainer Bob Baffert’s momentum behind her, but she’s routing for the first time Saturday. So, I’m going with Majestic Quality.

Majestic Quality has taken a long time to come to hand, but she’s a true two-turn horse who romped last time with a fieldbest Beyer, albeit over maidens. She had trouble two back in the Santa Anita Oaks, but her second-place finish three back in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes says she’s more than a mere last-out maiden winner.