ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, STRAIGHTAWAY MAY

FIRST RACE

LIPMAN is kin to four winners, including multiple stakes winner Beso Grande (4 wins, $230K earnings) and his works suggest he’s ready to roll for trainer Kelly Breen; especially dangerous if he has a little speed, as this race lacks obvious zip. VALENTINO’S DAY adds blinkers and exits sprints, and that should mean an edge if he can stay close early on; note the barn’s incredible record with horses making this equipment change. BRITISH BULLDOG has been away since a very dull effort in his last appearance in November but he could prove a threat if he’s able to run to his best figures in his return; tendency to run 2nd makes him easier to use “underneath”, however.

SECOND RACE

WILLIEGIMMEMORE is an absolute and emphatic guess in a completely puzzling maiden claiming route; he has been working decently and he adds blinkers, so perhaps he’ll improve off that nonthreatening debut sprint. SPIDER JOHN has some of the better figures in the field and he should be prominent from the start as he stretches out off the layoff. MATCH THE POT gets back on the main track and he does seem to prefer dirt.

THIRD RACE

STELLA STREET looms a heavy favorite under Bravo but she’s tough to go past here given her clear edge in Beyers, and hailing from the barn of Chad Brown; does needs some pace help but she should get at least an average tempo up front. VEBLEN GOOD has back figures which give her some credibility, and she could be in line for her best effort yet in her third start off the layoff; 2nd as the favorite in a race switched to dirt last time but she’s better on the grass. MISS BOB likely stayed in that same race despite the fact that it was moved to the main track because she needed a race off the layoff but she can be expected to move forward today back on the green.

FOURTH RACE

CEE BEE GEE BEE was no threat in her first start off the layoff but a slow start cost her, as she does some of her best work when she’s close up from the start; this race is not long on speed and she figures very tough here with a forward trip, assuming she gets away cleanly. GOLDEN EARRINGS comes off a route try but she has the speed to contend from the start in this sprint, and that should give her an edge, as there’s not all that much speed in this field. FAKERY turns back to a sprint but she’s another who should still be prominent from the start given her natural early speed.

FIFTH RACE

LEONARDO DA VINCI stopped despite a loose lead in his latest but this is a sizable drop in class, and he could prove much tougher to catch if he’s allowed to again get clear and set his own fractions; he can also rate if need be, as he could face some pressure from GEORGE CROSS or others. NOBLE ROAD prompted the pace before tiring in that last one but he has license to improve here in his first start for trainer Jorge Navarro; clearly not the horse he was last summer, when he ran in the United Nations over this course, but he merits respect off those back figures. GEORGE CROSS is another making his debut for the top barn, and that means he is eligible to move way up in his first start off the layoff.

SIXTH RACE

MODEL CITIZEN might be the main speed in this seemingly paceless race, and though he failed

when last seen he didn’t have the easiest of trips/setups; first start off the Navarro claim.

CUADRANTE could prove to be the one to catch; he faltered badly in his latest but he was also involved in a race-long duel through a quick opening quarter. D’MARIN loves this track and may appreciate getting a dry strip, if he in fact does get that on Saturday; tactical speed should mean he’s well spotted behind the pacesetters.

SEVENTH RACE

LUCKY-STRIKE DEL COCO benefited from a favorable race flow when 2nd in her most recent try but she may be in a similar situation here as the main speed in a race which lacks an obvious race flow; chance to steal it for a barn which excels under these circumstances. WELL COMPOSED is widest but she has enough early zip to stay close, and that’s a big plus if this race does in fact feature a moderate tempo; she’s winless on the year but she ran some solid races in defeat this winter at Tampa. RHYTHM QUEEN disappointed in her firsts tart off the break but she deserves another chance with that race under her belt; positional speed and inside post a plus.

EIGHTH RACE

TRUE ROMANCE does like to run 2nd, and that’s a concern, but she also has proven that she can be tough when allowed a loose lead, as she did in that win two back at Keeneland; she’ll need an alert break from the fence but given that she figures to shake loose against this short field. APRIL GAZE was going longer before she was shelved last year, and while that suggests this sprint is a prep for a route she is not without a shot here, as she could get first run at the top pick; barn has solid stats with horses off an extended break. LITTLE CHERIE might be the main stretch threat; she ran well in most of her races at Tampa this winter, several times when in against deep fields.

NINTH RACE

LEAD INVESTOR and HAT IN THE RING come out of the same race where they both were at a pace disadvantage, trying to close ground late in race light on speed and controlled by the frontrunners. Both stand to move up here with a more favorable set up, but the latter gets the nod only because she has more upside and the latter could be overbet some based on the barn. BOBBY THE BOSS was 2nd in that same race, and while he took advantage of a forward trip he does have consistent Beyers.

TENTH RACE

MAJESTIC AFFAIR has been away nearly a year but he’s been training forwardly toward this return and trainer Chad Brown, who wins with nearly all types, sports typically strong numbers with horses returning from a break of over six months; tactical speed could mean he sits just off likely pacesetter RED DRAGON TATTOO. The latter has the speed to get clear in the opening stages, and he should be able to use the rail draw to his best advantage; lone loss came in a race at Laurel where he dueled for the ndlead from the start and the closers held the edge. NAME CHANGER has some of the better Beyers in the field, including that last one, where he earned a 96 Beyer despite having to try to close in a race which featured little pace and a very strong favorite in winner Shaman Ghost.

ELEVENTH RACE

STRAIGHTAWAY MAY has two turf sprint tries to his credit and he ran well each time, especially in his most recent, where he showed a good late kick despite modest fractions up front; likely to come back running off the short rest for exceptional barn. LIL LOVE MACHINE tries grass for the first time after a near miss in his latest, a race rained off the turf; he was very game there, dueling for the lead from the start and dropping a tough decision while between horses on the wire, yet he could run even better here for trainer Hugh McMahon, who does well with turf sprinters. HARLAN’S QUEST usually goes two turns but he has to be respected on his turf Beyers nonetheless, as he has some of the best figures in the field.