ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, BIG WORLD

FIRST RACE

AUDREY’S DOUBLE has move-up potential first off a claim in this turf race after running a distant third against cheaper June 2 when racing on the main track. She is more experienced racing on turf rather than dirt and seems to be a little more honest on this surface; capable of running Beyers in the 73-78 range on the lawn. PLAY THE BREAK won a $30,000 N2L race at Gulfstream in December before running sixth in a starter allowance and fourth in N3L $30,000 race like this one last out at Gulf. The criticism is that she is unraced for over four months, though a lengthy worktab alleviates some of the concern about fitness. LEELOO’S JOURNEY is back with females after finishing ninth in a race against males June 1; expecting her to regress off the last-race 71 Beyer she earned last out. Prior starts against her own gender this meet resulted in Beyers of 64 and 62.

SECOND RACE

HIGH MULTIPLE came alive at Keeneland with a win and a second in two starts there before finishing seventh at Churchill May 29 when racing wide and being a little ambitiously placed against $30,000 stock. As a developing 3-year-old, he is statistically more likely to match or exceed his prior figure top than the older horses in this race. SILVER WRAITH possesses early speed in race in which he and HIGH MULTIPLE appear to be the only legitimate pace players; still, yet to finish better than fourth in five dirt starts. Stalker LITTLE B is stepped up in claiming price after a just getting up to be second in a race against bottom-level $8,000 N2L runners May 16

THIRD RACE

MESOMA dominated conditioned claimers in fast time over this surface June 3, and though he faces a tougher group of open runners in this spot, he has the back class to suggest he can contend on the rise; Lanerie also sticks around. CERRO has won 11 races, including 2 of his last 3. He won last out at Indiana Grand in the mud, conditions he may have handled better than others. Starters for his barn tend to do better at the B-level tracks in this region than at A-level ones like Churchill and Keeneland. TOASTING MASTER could very well be the classiest horse in the field, but he has been out of action since being claimed Nov. 2 from an optional claimer, and after so long on the sidelines might need a race to regain peak fitness; also acts like a horse that prefers running at a mile to a mile and a sixteenth, making this sprint seem like a prep race for a route down the road.

FOURTH RACE

KISMET’S HEELS is returned to the grass after five straight races on the main track, but showed enough quality earlier in his career on the turf to suggest he can be a force. He deserves a pass for running fifth at Churchill May 12 when fifth in a slow- paced mile race in which he had a wide trip. KASSEOPIA joins the Mark Casse stable after running below expectations in four allowance starts over the past year, though in races stronger than this one; been training quickly at Churchill, though Casse tends to let his workers rumble more so than former trainer Graham Motion. RACE ME HOME was stakes placed a little over a year ago in the Easy Goer stakes on the Belmont undercard but though unplaced in two subsequent starts, he had excuses for those losses. One race came when outclassed in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, and then might have needed his last start when sixth in a comeback race on dirt May 12. An Irish bred, this colt has the pedigree to like the move to the grass; training swiftly.

FIFTH RACE

A multiple graded winner dropping after an eighth in the Kentucky Derby, MCCRAKEN holds a significant class edge in the Grade 3 Matt Winn. He won the first four starts of his career, and went into the Derby

as one of the favorites even despite running third in the Bluegrass. COLONELSDARKTEMPER was a determined allowance winner May 29 in a sevenfurlong race after finishing eighth in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile. Perhaps a little better going one turn than two but seems as good as any beyond heavily favored MCCRAKEN. EXCITATIONS is another that is a question mark going 1 1/16 miles, having also done his best work in sprints; perhaps can excuse an 11th in the Pat Day Mile when catching an off track on Derby Day. All of his fast-track efforts have resulted in on-the-board finishes.

SIXTH RACE

KASAQUI, in the third start of his current form cycle, looks poised for a peak race after a second in the Mervin Muniz and a fourth over a wet course in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Derby Day. Although this is also a very good race, it is not on par with the Woodford Reserve. PLEUVEN won this race last year over the top choice, and is just as good in 2017 if not better. He just took the Opening Verse here May 4 in what was a prep for this graded stake; first or second in all four local starts on this course. CONQUEST PANTHERA is another that exits the Woodford Reserve. He seemed to struggle over the wet going, finishing eighth - not anywhere near the kind of performance he put forth when a close third in his preceding start in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile on firm ground.

SEVENTH RACE

BIG WORLD and FOREVER UNBRIDLED are the leading contenders in the Fleur de Lis, but preference goes to the former due to being fit and in the best form of her life after winning the La Troienne, compared to the latter being out of action this year. That noted, obviously FOREVER UNBRIDLED is the most talented mare in the race, a filly with earnings of nearly $1.6 million that ran third when last seen in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. CARRUMBA has slowly come around with each start in 2017, going from fifth to fourth to second. The second came in the DuPont Distaff, however - a Grade 3 race in which Terra Promessa ran away to a dominant victory over an outclassed group.

EIGHTH RACE

GUN RUNNER has to be considered one of the elite older dirt horses in the country not named Arrogate. Winner of the Grade 1 Clark over this track, he won the Razorback and ran second in the Dubai World Cup in two races this year; promising local works leading up for his first start in a little less than three months. BREAKING LUCKY was away poorly and ate a lot of slop when fifth in the Grade 2 Alysheba on Oaks Day, which had followed a fine near miss in the New Orleans Handicap when he uncharacteristically went to the lead and grew tired after getting pushed into a demanding pace to be second, beaten a neck by HONORABLE DUTY. The latter, much improved over the past six or seven months, was the top older handicap horse at the Fair Grounds this winter and then ran second in the Alysheba over this strip; incredibly honest.

NINTH RACE

PROCTOR’S LEDGE stayed even paced over wet ground in the Edgewood on Oaks Day, running fourth, but just seemed to be unable to quicken over the soggy turf. Previously showed promise on firm ground at Gulfstream and Keeneland earlier this year. SWEEPING PADDY finished third in the Edgewood, three quarters of a length in front of the top choice, but may have simply handled the soft turf better than her; quality early speed but prone to getting outfinished in the stretch. CHUBBY STAR rallied to finish second in a stake against the boys at Pimlico on the Preakness undercard, which had followed a half-length victory ndover SWEEPING PADDY at Keeneland going this 1 1/8-mile distance. A stalker, she could get hung wide from the far outside post.

TENTH RACE

MISS KENTUCKY improved second out with a runner-up finish at Churchill Apr. 29 after setting the pace. The 82 Beyer she earned is head and shoulders above the top numbers of the opposition. WHAT A STAR has run second in each of her two sprints, even doing so with a troubled trip May 13 over this track; not as fast as the top one with a high Beyer of 68. GOLDEN AMBER has underachieved relative to her short odds in two starts with a fourth and a third in as many races; did at least show improved speed last out when chasing a fast pace before fading to third.

ELEVENTH RACE

PORTAL closed well to finish second, beaten a head, in a fast maiden race May 29 going a mile; 80 Beyer from that race stands above those of his rivals; seems likely to appreciate being stretched out from a one-turn mile to a two-turn 1 1/16-mile race. TAPSOLUTE has been competitive in four straight races, and was second most recently at Keeneland in the mud behind runaway winner Meantime, a colt that is now graded placed. LEADING CAUSE has run well in two races this year despite wide trips, running second at Keeneland and third here May 28; came up a little empty in the lane but now goes in a shorter route.