ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, YOUR LOVE

FIRST RACE

BREAKIN DAYLIGHT was over 10 lengths behind at the finish of his debut, but he actually ran pretty well in that spot behind a very sharp winner; switches to turf with some pedigree being a More Than Ready from the family of Grade 1 turf mare Dress to Thrill, and a half to Glory, who was a two-time turf winner and multiple graded stakesplaced on that surface. RUDY’S BOY appeared to be doing some prepping on dirt, then had his most recent start rained off, where he wound up chasing a heavily-favored winner all the way; bred for turf. MORRISON by a sire who is finding success with turf runners to start, though there isn’t much grass on the dam-side; Sharp 5-for-32 (16%) with 2yo first time starters on turf with a positive ROI.

SECOND RACE

JETER has been in deceptively good form lately while catching wet tracks, and bumping into the speedy Bustin It in three of his last four - and getting wired by H Man in the other; best with some pace to run at, but he is facing a field full of horses here that seem to prefer routing. LUCKY LOTTO was turned back off the claim and raced on without real threat late after getting rated back off the early pace; solid claimer gets a little added ground to work with. OUR CARAVAN trying to sprint for the first time in his career; rebounded to a better effort last time, and he will be racing on late.

THIRD RACE

LUZ MIMI has six 2nds from 12 career starts, but she went back-to-back late last year, and she improved in her NY debut when coming up the rail to duel with favored Wildcat Belle, only to be closed down late. HONOR WAY earned top figure in this field when defeating maidens last time, though there wasn’t a whole lot of running going on behind her in that race, and she did run well two starts back when wired by a sharp winner off the layoff; be no surprise, but not sure how short she should be. ASIAN’S WAY back to dirt off the claim after failing to handle turf on a class drop in her NY debut; not sure about the seven, but she is versatile for trainer who is strong with new acquisitions.

FOURTH RACE

GAME FACTOR went well in her first two starts, then took a step back last time, though she got headstrong in that race before coming up empty; lands in good-looking spot for trainer who excels with turn backs on turf. FOREIGN AFFAIR has a layoff to overcome, but like her starting back on turf, and her career debut was a solid effort while trying to close into a moderate pace. ETERNAL VOW debuts for Hushion, who had a good year with his first time starters in 2016, including a pair of debut winners in turf sprints; stakes-winning dam won four of her six career starts, including her only try on turf, and her first foal went 2-for-2 on grass.

FIFTH RACE

Wide-open turf route for NY-bred maidens doesn’t have to chalk out, but it certainly could. YOU LIKE THAT is a price, but he is better on turf based on his two starts over this surface so far, the first while racing greenly and wide on debut, and then most recently when trying to close ground, and doing so, into a slow pace; needs a trip. APPEALING BRIEFS back in with NY-breds after facing tougher open company foes in his last two starts, and acquitting himself well; closer needs some pace to develop. MINSKY MOMENT will be hard to deny here is transferring his dirt form over to turf, and he does have the pedigree on the dam-side as a half to two multiple winners on grass, though I don’t love the Flatter’s on this surface. MILLIES PARTY BOY a bigger price to include off the layoff, as he ran a big race in his lone start as a 2yo while trying to sweep that field with a five-wide run

before only just getting out-finished late. Wanted to take ZONIC on top, as he has shown some run on dirt, and has the pedigree to improve on this surface (dam is a sister to 2 Grade 1 winners on turf), but he has had a lot of chances already, and has drawn a tough post.

SIXTH RACE

YOUR LOVE a full to Economic Model, and she made a highly-promising debut when traveling willingly throughout after a good start, and then finishing strong to close down her similarly wellbred stablemate while well clear of the rest of the that field; takes next logical step and is perfectly drawn on the outside. ASPEN HILLTOP stepping back out of pair of disasters in graded stakes company while now in the position of having to prove that she can still run; liked her debut last summer when closing into a fast pace, and think she is going to be better off sprinting. KIRBY’S PENNY stepping up off pair of fast wins on dirt vs. lesser in Kentucky; figures to find this tougher, but has some speed, and is fastest on the way in.

SEVENTH RACE

PERDONA the kind of turf turn back I usually don’t like, but she has speed and has sprinted effectively on grass in the past, including pair of game tries down the hill vs. stakes-quality rivals Nite Delite and Dreamologist; threat if she can keep herself in range. ANIMAL APPEAL has lost a couple of races that aren’t exactly easy to excuse, but she is a fast sprinter when she’s right, and she can come forward in her second start back after failing to make the front over a softer course at Pimlico last time. BATTLEMENT had nothing to offer in stateside debut going longer despite taking some money, then switched to dirt last time in a move that didn’t exactly show a lot of confidence in here; better sprinting over there.

EIGHTH RACE

LUBASH sat a trip and finished an even 3rd in the Kingston over yielding ground that doesn’t always agree with him, but he had shown in his prior two starts that he still has what it takes, including that Miami Mile where he was finishing hard into a fast fraction after trailing a slow pace. PROJECTED just one of three for Chad, but he is the horse to beat based on first three starts over here, all of them solid performances; sat a trip, but was finishing gamely in that Dixie after a horse who just game him no chance to catch. BALLAGH ROCKS dropping out of pair of Grade 1’s, including new top figure try in the Maker’s 46 off the layoff; has been improving right along for the best of trainers, and he kicks hard at the end of his races. CATAPULT a contender with his good race, though he never really panned out after a promising start; tends to get headstrong early in his races, so this might be a good spot to send him along, as there is a clear lack of pace in this race.

NINTH RACE

READY FOR RYE looking for first win since September on his 3yo year, but he has kept exclusively to stakes company since then, and has held his own right along; likely to need his best off the layoff, but it may well be good enough if he can bring it, and he won’t be the favorite. THREEFIVEINDIA the horse to beat based on 3yo form that saw him get multiple graded stakes placings while improving his figures from race to race; flattened out after taking a bold run at the lead as a heavy favorite off the layoff, but he appeared to need that race. CANDID DESIRE may find the top two to be a little too tough, assuming one or both show up, but he continues to race in career form; don’t love that he has turned himself into a bit of a one-run closer lately.

TENTH RACE

Class drop for RUNAWAY POSSE may not be the best sign in the world, coming as it does off an effort where, wired or not, he was a no-show, but he is going to be tough on this field if he can rebound, and he is a much better horse over these shorter distances; needs some pace. RAPSCALLION dropping back down off a bit of a layoff, 2150 Hempstead Turnpike Elmont, NY 11003 (718) 641-4700

Main track: One and one-half Mile, oval. Widener turf: One and 5/16 Miles, 27 Feet. Inner turf: One and 3/16 Miles, 103 Feet. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,097 Feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick Four, Superfecta and Grand Slam wagering: 24% ■ Pick 5: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering: 24% (15% on non-carryover days) and returning to a turf course where he has fired almost without fail since concentrating on shorter distances. ROMANS PARADISE has found a tough field for the level, but his best race brings him close, and he tends to run it off the layoff; has posted each of his last two wins right off the bench, including one over this course and distance last June.

designates graduate of Keeneland Sale