ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, CUPID’S BEAU

FIRST RACE

Special-weight droppers HALO AHEAD and OH SCATTY OH are tough to separate in this maiden-50 turf route. The call goes to the improving HALO AHEAD, who ran well last out until deep stretch. She surprisingly set the pace, led to past the eighth pole and then tired in a race that saw the 1-2-3 finishers rally from 5-9-8 running positions. HALO AHEAD showed two starts back that she can rally from behind. Either is fine. OH SCATTY OH, like the top choice, is entered for the first time in a maiden-claiming race. Her speed figures are appropriate for this level; she has tactical speed and should be forwardly placed. LETHAL LEGACY is a 19-start maiden, but she finished in the money eight times and will be ridden for the first time by the circuit’s top turf rider Flavien Prat.

SECOND RACE

NAUGHTY SOPHIE makes her career debut in a maidenclaiming sprint, a category in which trainer Peter Miller is very effective. The past five years, Miller is 14-for-46 with debut maiden-claiming juveniles. That 30 percent win rate produced a $2.71 return for each $2 wagered. Miller won a similar maiden-claiming race two weeks ago with a colt, Big Boy Candy. SPIRIT OF SHANGHAI has a series of quick works for the John Brocklebank outfit, which typically sends its rookies out ready to roll. The filly is by first-crop sire Shanghai Bobby, 2012 champion juvenile whose early runners (five starters, through Wednesday) had yet to produce a debut win. VENICE is one of two in this field with racing experience. She finished nowhere in the first 2yo race of the season in early May, but is likely to improve second time out entered for the $50k tag.

THIRD RACE

Only six in this N2X/optional $62.5k claiming route, but it is a competitive race without a toss in the field. EL HUERFANO gets the call dropping from better races. The last time he raced at this level was more than a year ago; that was his last win. He has been running consistently well against stakes and higher-class allowance foes. The challenge is he typically runs on or near the lead, and there is lots of speed in this small field. The pace scenario benefits IKE WALKER, who won at this level in March before being overmatched in his next two starts. He might be the only closer in this speed-filled field. The race sets up for the eighttime winner. CANDY PROMISES stretched out and ran well last time, runner-up behind multiple stakes winner Soi Phet. Inside post, ability to take back and rally (albeit sprints), he figures in the hunt. CURLIN RULES, KRISTO and TAMAN GUARD have run races good enough. Small field, but a deep race.

FOURTH RACE

BELLAMENTARY can upset likely favorite PRETTY N COOL and comeback filly BENDABLE. The runner-up comeback by BELLAMENTARY was super. Running long on turf, she set a strong pace, fought back late, and held second. That was her first on turf, and designed as a prep for a return to dirt. A listed sprint stakes winner last year, and placed twice in graded races, she worked well since her comeback, turns back to one turn, and might be able to wear down the speed. PRETTY N COOL, multiple graded winner, is an improved filly this year at age 4. She followed her G3 comeback victory with a runner-up effort at Belmont behind razor-sharp millionaire By the Moon, who came back to win again. PRETTY N COOL is quick, and also versatile. From near the outside, she has options. BENDABLE has not started since October, but she won both starts fresh (debut win, short layoff win). The lightly raced filly (3-for-5) has a solid workout pattern for her comeback, she earned good figures last year as a 3yo, and seems likely to return this year as an improved filly. INVESTED PROSPECT is an invader from Emerald Downs that is 7-for-7 sprinting. CONIAH, runner-up two recent turf sprint stakes, also can dirt.

FIFTH RACE

Runner-up both recent starts as the favorite at this N1X level, KLONDIKE CREEK is the one to beat. He finished in the money all six starts on turf, ran well at this mile and one-half distance two starts back, and figures for a comfortable trip setting or pressing easy fractions. Wagering value will be negligible, however. FRENCH GETAWAY was a vet scratch from the race the top choice exits, but he returned with three solid workouts and will roll late. He finished less than a length behind the top choice when they met in April. Lightly raced CAFE FLAVOR trounced Golden Gate maidens by more than six lengths in just his third career start, and second back from an extended layoff. He might like a mile and a half. IT’S THE ICE has been stuck for a long time at this N1X level, but he finished close on more than one occasion.

SIXTH RACE

CUPID’S BEAU, romping last-out winner of a maiden20, is realistically spotted at the N2L claiming level for his first try against winners. He ran fast last time, all the way through the race, earned a big number and returns at the same six and one-half furlong distance while in light under a seven-pound apprentice. From the outside post, he can either press the pace or go right on with it. Looks like a standout. TRUE RANGER has been stuck at the N2L claiming level since last fall, but he repeatedly finishes in the money, five times from seven tries vs. similar. He has been chasing very fast fractions; the pace should be more kind this time. LOUD STALKER drops from open $20k claiming 3yos, while JUSTONETIMEBABY also drops to the bottom level for the first in his brief career. He might be ranked too low; his Cal-bred maiden-50 win three back puts him in the picture.

SEVENTH RACE

DRAMA IS OVERRATED deserves another chance after finishing fifth in his debut two weeks ago. The 2yo was showing speed in morning works, and expected to show speed in the race, but he lost all chance after the break. He stumbled, was away slowly, then rallied evenly while wide to split the field. With a clean takeoff second time out, he might be the one to catch. BOOKIES LUCK is back in with California-bred maidens after a distant third against open company. This is his third career start, probably deserves one more chance against this easier group. STAY GLAD was void of speed in his debut, not asked, but finished with run in a third-place debut that appears to have been merely a prep race. He benefits from the additional distance of this five-furlong dash. SUIT OF LIGHTS is a first-time starter from a stable that does well with these.

EIGHTH RACE

Lots of choices in this competitive $25k claiming starter turf route. LIAR’S SMOKER is the choice, over high weight MOONLESS SKY. In her last start vs. N1X fillies and mares, LIAR’S SMOKER was three-and four-wide throughout, and threw in the towel in the stretch. She finished last, in a toss-out race. She won at this $25k claiming starter level two back, and back in with her friends this time. MOONLESS SKY was in the right place at the right time last out, and inherited a stakes victory after the winner was disqualified for interference. The “runner-up finish” by MOONLESS SKY was her third successive top effort since arriving from Florida; her come-from-behind running style suits the likely pace. Looks like plenty of speed signed on. NINE POINT NINE is one of the aforementioned front-runners, but maybe her new rider can ration her speed. If so, she could get a cozy trip positioned second behind likely pacesetter. LITTLE BIT LOVELY. WEALTHY SHIPMAN is sharp, two wins and two seconds her last four starts. Deep field.

NINTH RACE

This N1X route is the perfect spot for BOY HOWDY to stretch out and post a minor upset. His two comeback sprints against California-bred allowance rivals were solid (second, win); his even-paced fifth last out in an open N1X at seven furlongs should set him up perfect for this two-turn trip. He is a better horse now than the last time he tried two turns. SHOW ME DA LUTE has not started the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity in December. He won his career debut around two turns, so he obviously can get the distance without a prep race. This is only the third start of his career. SAINT

TENTH RACE

SHE’SASHOCKER is rock solid in this turf sprint for maiden fillies and mares. Last time out, she did everything but win. She chased, dueled with a rival through the lane, put that one away, and then got collared on the wire. It was a winning effort by the downhill specialist. Outside post, pressing style, strong choice to end the week. BREATHE returns from a nine-month layoff. She finished in the money all three starts last summer as a 3yo. She is quick, drawn outside the top choice, and will keep the pace honest. Not sure about turf, however. TRUE TESTAMENT, in the money eight of nine but still a maiden, has run well on the hill and is another that will be forwardly placed.