ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, DEFIANT HONOR

FIRST RACE

MIGHTY ZEALOUS went to Finger Lakes last summer to recover his form and won four of six starts, then carried his improvement back to this circuit, even while catching series of wet tracks that don’t necessarily move him up; game effort last time when chasing the speedy Bustin In all the way en route to new top figure. SARATOGA HEATER likes a wet track, but he was also up against it chasing Bustin It when returned to NY last time; has posted four of five career wins over tracks with moisture, but don’t think he needs it to perform to his best. TIMBER knocked out a couple of wins while up in class in April and May, then raced on gamely from off the pace behind a couple of these in one of Bustin It’s recent wins; chances improve of he can get some hitting up front, but he doesn’t require it.

SECOND RACE

THERE THEY GO turf-to-dirt and dropping back down in class after getting in over his head on grass a couple of weeks ago; raced greenly before putting in a fine late rally on debut, and he was finishing gamely once again in that off-the-turfer two back after catching a bit of traffic on the turn. LOVE YOUR BUTTONS was off slowly in that first career start last month, before making a solid four-wide run around the turn and then flattening out in the stretch; type of debut he can easily build upon. BRITAIN dropped to this level last time following unsuccessful turf try, and got outrun by a dominant winner right from the start; likely just isn’t that good, but he should have no trouble with the added distance of this race, which may not be the case for some of his competition.

THIRD RACE

BELLAMY WAY has so far been more of a two-turn horse, but he has run well over this track on occasion, and has mostly faced much better horses here; that will be the case once again, though he is catching some of them at the right time, and am willing to give him a chance to back up that impressive win off the layoff back in February, after chasing that enterprising pace in the Excelsior last time. VOLUNTARIO dropping back down off the layoff after losing his form a bit early on in the year; fits here with his best effort, and is likely to have some pace to run at it, which helps his chances. TESTOSTERSTONE keeps hitting hard for this trainer, though he is another who may be more comfortable with the two-turn routes available at Aqueduct. WAKE UP IN MALIBU capable of a race that would make him tough here, and his trainer is excellent off of layoffs, dangerous speed if ready to go.

FOURTH RACE

SELENITE right back in for the 40 off the claim after getting away easy on the lead and powering away from a similar field here last month; doesn’t have to win here at a short price, and Toscano is just 2-for-28 off the claim on turf over the past five years, but she is better than these horses if even close to her best once again. MADDIZASKAR got good on the main track over the winter, but she fits at this level on turf, as well, where she is a threetime winner; didn’t run poorly at all vs. a much tougher field when returned to grass two starts back. MORE THANAWARNING is slow from the gate, which puts her up against it every week, but she runs at the end, and she will do better at this level and over this shorter distance after trying to stretch it out again last time.

FIFTH RACE

MORE THAN TREASURE dropping all that way down after giving way on turf off the layoff; effort on lone start as a 2yo at Saratoga is better than it looks after contesting a good pace in the faster division of 2yo MSW for fillies, and doing so in a race that was won from last-to-first. JEANNE’S SPEIGHT back to dirt and turning back while also dropping to lowest level yet after failing to improve enough on grass; debut at Santa Anita came vs. better in a race where she couldn’t cope with a fast pace, and she caught slop off the layoff. DIAL M FOR MUGS looked like she needed that Keeneland

debut where she was off slow and outrun, before catching up to that field, and then tiring in the stretch; forged on for a piece over a wet track at this level last time.

SIXTH RACE

SON OF OAHU has had his chances already, but he has done his best vs. starter allowance rivals to no avail, and needs this class drop; was an easy winner in his only other start for a tag on turf, and he has the kind of positional speed which could lead to a nice trip in this race. Don’t think SNAG is all that good, and he is going to drop all the way back in distance for this after making each of his last seven starts going longer, but this is a huge class drop, and that alone makes him a contender. ACOUSTIC managed to grind out a win when finally back to turf at Laurel two starts back, then raced on gamely late after catching a few spots of traffic at this level last time; lacks for early pace, and doesn’t have much acceleration, but he should be racing on late.

SEVENTH RACE

HE’S CHEEKY down to the right level after failing to make an impact from last vs. better last time; has been progressing on turf from the start, and liked that win two back vs. horses that he fits with, which appears to be the case once again here. UNION RICHES chased the pace and tired on off-the-turfer at this level last time, but he is clearly a better horse on grass, and his win two back at Tampa was solid while holding off an odds-on favorite to the wire. TIN DRUM stayed on the outside of that field behind UNION RICHES last time, and closed them down late while failing to change leads; has to improve his figures, but he is lightly-raced, staying at the right level after winning two of his first three career starts, and is a half to six-time turf winner Native Wave.

EIGHTH RACE

DEFIANT HONOR just back off the layoff and perhaps giving away some fitness to several rivals who have already had a race this year, but she has the look of another good turf filly from this family, which includes Soaring Softly, Plenty of Grace and DEFIANT HONOR’s full-sister, Recepta; took a nice step forward to win her second start easily after getting in a useful debut, and she was best in that ridiculously-run Jimmy Durante with debris all over the track. SILVER DOLLAR DIVA had all the best of it while controlling a modest pace vs. maidens when last seen, but she was clearly best there, and her debut was also a good effort, that one from off the pace. WIND TARTARE arrived from France with decent form, including stakesplacing behind her now-stablemate Rymska; didn’t do nearly enough with a good trip off the layoff, but she raced on to the finish there, and is eligible to do better. DANCELAND is progressing for Shug, and she was up against it last time in race dominated on the front by Grade 1-winner Victory to Victory.

NINTH RACE

TUG OF WAR returned to form in pair of closelyspaced starts off the Rudy claim back in April, including that last one nd when going up to contest the pace early, only to be closed down by a perfectly-ridden winner; distance no problem. MOTOWN SOUND a solid fit at this level, and he has been in good form since getting class relief he needed late last year; no match for TUG OF WAR back in April, but he has improved his figures in pair of subsequent starts. POINT HOPE off the claim for trainer having success at this meet, and he is also a good fit in this kind of race; needs a little pace to develop.