ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, ALL FORE KICKS

FIRST RACE

GO GO GOOSE was rained off the turf in her return try but that is fine as she got what she needed from that dirt race. She is a proven turf runner that loves this sod and is facing easier. She even has some tactical speed to help with the trip. Losing Eramia helps the price. SPARTANBURG probably needed her return try at EvD. She has won on this sod before and lures Eramia who won with this gal only three back (72 Beyer). SILENT LUST has won three times on this sod, right? Works are well spaced and Castillo has won on this mare before.

SECOND RACE

ARCTIC BREEZE draws the attack post for this distance and has some speed which should make for a great trip. This horse just likes to win and at this distance. Local tab is fine and there just isn’t much pace in this race. Could this guy get an early breather for the first time in .... forever? BROTHER POPS lured Eramia previously and won as a luke warm favorite. Added half furlong and a not so hot price are the knocks. LUKIE JOE ran well off the layoff but still loses Eramia to our 2nd pick. Lack of speed is the main knock for this closer.

THIRD RACE

CHAT RAT draws inside, stretches out, has speed, and goes third off the layoff. This guy was stuck on the rail two back but that was sprinting and he broke 9th of 10. In his last race, he broke in a tangle. The blinkers go ON and that might sharpen his speed that much more. There isn’t much pace in here you know. Alas, we don’t know if he can get the distance. Lone route sib missed the board in both tries. The 5 and 7 won’t let him slow things down too much but he figures a decent price and could still steal this. PEREGRINO is the one to beat and that is that. He has tactical speed but can pass runners if needed. NITA’S GOLD DIGGER ran OK 1 and 3 back. Local tab is fine and he could work out a great trip if the 1 and 7 hook up early.

FOURTH RACE

RUNNINGUNNINRASCAL is a horse for course that didn’t get much pace help in his two return tries. That changes today as race flow is above average. What if 8 1/2 furlongs is a tad far for this guy? He might love today’s cut back to 7 1/2 furlongs and he is 6-4-1-0 when doing so. Mora/Loetscher are 42% locally. COUGAR BAIT drops in class and wants to pass runners. A better post than our top pick. WHISKEY BIZ has speed. If all stay in, then there is plenty of other speed in here. Turf figs from 2 and 3 back make this guy the absolute one to beat.

FIFTH RACE

ALL FORE KICKS is the lone deep closer in a race full of speed. Folks, it doesn’t get much better than that. Plus, she might be the most talented runner in the field no matter the pace. Eramia can’t climb aboard this filly fast enough. FLASHY HOLIDAY has some speed as does everyone else but they can’t all gun for the front end. Someone is going to sit just off the early pace so why not this mare who can then save all the early ground. SISTER JUANITA gets back to routing and this barn is 17% on the stretch-out. This mare has passed a runner before. Does this outside post force an off the pace try?

SIXTH RACE

Why not QUICK COUNCIL? He should be a good price simply due to lack of info. Sire is a new sire. Her dam never raced and this is her first foal. That screams good price, right? Trainer is the owner is the breeder and this looks to be his first runner as we see zero trainer stats. It was a while ago, but that April 15th work was sneaky good. If this filly can relax early, then she gets some pace to chase. CARMENS GOOD KARMA just ran better missing a Beyer top by only two points. HATTIE MAE NOT has some speed and draws the rail. Eramia lands here.

SEVENTH RACE

ZARBS SAMBA DANCER has speed and gets in light today. That front end try only three back would fit nicely here. A good turf barn calls the shots. PICOT is bred to love the green while lone turf try was a Beyer top (two back, 53). It is no surprise that Eramia land here. The one to beat. TAPNOW is by a 19% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the turf. Lone grass sib is 4-0-0-0. We like that this gelding ran evenly in both starts to date. CLEAREDFOR TAKEOFF is by a 11% debut turf sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green and

this is her first grass foal. DIPPER PINES is by a 7% debut turf sire. His dam went 11-0-1-0 for 10K on the weeds. Lone sib never tried the green. MOSTLY SUNNY is by a 6% debut turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-1 for 3K on the sod. Of 6 sibs to try the grass, 2 won and both beat winners. AFLEET SPRING is by a 13% debut sire and a 13% debut turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0 and never tried the grass. One of two sibs won and it beat winners (lone turfer went 2-0-0-0). LEVEL TEMPER is by a 0 for 3 debut sire and a 0 for 2 debut turf sire. His dam went 4-0-0-0 with half of those on the green. Of 5 sibs to race, 3 won and 2 beat winners (0 for 2 on the grass).