ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, MAGSAMELIA

FIRST RACE

City Zip filly SWEET AUGUST LADY was looking turf for her debut, but got rained off and raced greenly through the mud before winding up a distant 3rd at the end; figures to improve with that one out of the way, assuming she can get to the surface she seems intended for. WAY SMART gives away experience, but Tizway filly is out of a dam who posted both career wins on turf, and her full sister Tizzelle is 2-for-3 on grass to begin her career. PIQUET the horse to beat based on first two races where she came out on the wrong end of close finishes both times, but it’s not like there are legit excuses for her to fall back on, especially in that last one where she made the lead in the stretch and just failed to finish it off.

SECOND RACE

18-time winner SWEETRAYOFSUNSHINE has already handled most of theses at least once, and she is back to the level of the claim for this after handing what was arguably a tougher field than this last time. MY WON LOVE was secondbest to SWEETRAYOFSUNSHINE two starts back at this level, then tried contesting the pace and shortened late over 7 furlongs last time; needs her best. LIL RENEGADE only 3-for-33 lifetime, but a bit better than the bare accounting indicates; can get a piece.

THIRD RACE

MAGSAMELIA tends to do her best running sprinting over Belmont turf, and she was impressive when going back-to-back here last October, before trying to stretch out over better horses at the end of the year; out-finished as the favorite in a similar spot off the layoff, but she appeared to be a short horse in that spot, and she goes off the claim for a top trainer this time. Like the top one, AWESOME QUICK is at her best sprinting over Belmont turf, and she is back to the level of her win off the layoff after trying a tougher spot, and acquitting herself well, last time; handy running style allows her rider options. AMBER MORNING rallied through some traffic after settling back last when behind AWESOME QUICK off the layoff; closing sprinter needs some pace, but she is capable of kicking this field down with the right kind of trip, assuming she takes a step forward in her second start back.

FOURTH RACE

MISSBIGTIMES by a solid sire, and her dam was a fast sprinter in her day, winning the first two starts of her career by open lengths with Beyers of 92 and 88; Englehart underrated with first time starters, and he already has 2 wins and 3 seconds from 10 runners making their debuts so far in 2017. We’ll see what we get from the Graydar’s as time goes on, but his firster KENZIE is the first foal from Cluster of Stars, who won all seven of her career starts, including a couple of Grade 2’s, for this trainer; Asmussen solid first time out, as well. STREAM OF GOLD goes for Pletcher, and she is the first foal from her dam, who handled all three surfaces, but wound up becoming a stakeswinning sprinter by the end of her career. DREAMS ARE PAZIBLE needs a couple of scratches to get in, but she is one who could easily improve after a wide trip in her debut, where she raced greenly; will have blinkers for her second start, but she will also have the far outside post once again.

FIFTH RACE

JUPITER RISING went evenly in pair of 2yo starts on the main track; half to the good turf horse Nedjma, from a dam who posted both of her career wins on turf, drops and switches to grass for first start back. JEGOS FIRE got a look at the leaders in mid-stretch after a wide trip in his first start at this level, then got held up in some traffic in that last one, before altering course late and finishing gamely to get up for 3rd; usable at any good price. MR. CAT sat a nice trip in behind the lead, and had room down inside all through the stretch while getting out-finished in his debut; wouldn’t want him at a similar shorter price off that effort, even when considering that Linda is excellent with

maidens after a start, as she has really excelled with her second time starters on dirt.

SIXTH RACE

FREUD’S FRIEND went well in both turf sprints as a 2yo, including placing in that $100k stake at Saratoga, where he was really no match; appeared to be looking for a pace-tracking trip in that first start back from the layoff, but wound up chasing three-wide before getting a bit tired late. HEAVY MEDDLE was getting short at the end, but he survived to take a field wire-to-wire over a route of ground in his turf debut as a 2yo; had speed from the inside and contested things all the way before coming out second-best sprinting off the layoff. HERE COMES TOMMY has concentrated on dirt for most of his career, but there was a cluster of turf races on his card a few years ago which suggest that he is at least as good on this surface, even if he doesn’t win often; worth trying. SHIRAZ has disappointed in his last two starts as the favorite; better than that last one, but he is tough to go back to now, especially if he takes money once again.

SEVENTH RACE

Won’t advocate too hard for VOUCH FOR KITTEN off her 10 Beyer when returned to dirt last time, but she is clearly quite a bit better than that, even if (fast) dirt turns out not to be her best surface; don’t mind her turning back off the claim, especially with her speed. PARTY MINT STAR and MARY PRAY FOR US are logical contenders in this field, for whatever that’s worth; neither one is particularly compelling at shorter prices, but the alternatives to the logical runners are limited in this field. Perhaps OLA GATITA is the right new face as she drops way down in class for her second NY start; had some speed out of town, and will add blinkers for this.

EIGHTH RACE

BOOS makes 3yo and stateside debut off a layoff after getting in nine starts as a juvenile in France, including runnerup effort in Grade 2 company, and then splitting a very tough Criterium International field; won that allowance race last September with ease, and gets Lasix for first start back; will give her the chance to improve in field without a standout. MISS KATIE MAE forced her way out of traffic and finished gamely to win the Alywow on the turn back last summer, then didn’t win again while holding her own in some tougher races through the end of the year; better sprinting, and mild late rally off the layoff should have her set to come forward. RUMBLE DOLL caught traffic behind an impressive winner on the layoff, then rallied over yielding ground and came up short when cut back a furlong last time; back out to distance she handles with plenty of back races to contend with these. LADY ALEXANDRA disappointed a bit after taking all the money in $100k stakes last time; better than that, but wouldn’t want her at another short number.

NINTH RACE

KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER came back to grass in a much tougher race last time, and faded readily after chasing a front-running winner from the start; got a heads-up ride to wire a field over Saratoga turf last summer after missing the break in his prior start, and his effort in that starter allowance here last September was solid. MADE IN DETROIT figures tough with this class drop, which is not really a negative considering overall mark; speed plays from the inside post, but he has to get away from there alertly. SILENT WATERS looking to rebound out of a poor performance at Churchill while also taking a significant drop here, his coming along with a trainer change; has held his own with some better competition since switching to grass last year.