ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, VOODOO SONG

FIRST RACE

SALORI’S BANK has been on the improve right along this year, and last was best yet when finishing strong to close down a similar field; appears to be plenty of pace in this race to give her a chance right back. SUMMER OF JOY did not appear to be a horse who liked the turf when switched over off the claim, but she sat a nice trip when back to dirt in that last one before coming up empty in the stretch; better than that, and like her tactical speed. BELLELARAMA shows pair of wins that are dressed up a bit by circumstance, but she may be the best speed in this field, and can prove to be tough to catch of she can shake free; no match for three-life claimers last time, but Wildcat Belle is a better horse than anything she faces here.

SECOND RACE

Don’t know what the story is with that last one from FAIR REGIS, as she was outrun right from the start and never made a move, but she has been laid off since by new connections and will return with an equipment change; thought she ran well enough in her debut to have another chance, and it’s hard to argue with the field she lands in. HANSEN’S HELP ran well enough to win this in her debut, though she did have a nice trip that day, and that was a sloppy track, and she didn’t exactly back it up in her next start; good spot with fresh lasix, just has to be ready off the bench, which has not been a strong suit for this trainer: past five years, 180+ day layoff, 4-for-59, 7%, $0.74 ROI. DIAMONDS N STONES chased all the way and raced on through the stretch to just miss 2nd in her debut at this level; unlikely to have to improve much in this spot.

THIRD RACE

GIOIA STELLA didn’t produce immediate returns upon big sticker price, but she was a 3yo who was starting to get good at the end of last year, and thought she ran really well before getting out-finished late in the Winter Memories to close things out; don’t mind her staying in and showing some speed over that sloppy track off the layoff. PENJADE endured frustrating 3yo campaign where she frequently ran well without quite working the right trip; didn’t exactly get a perfect one off the layoff, either, but she fired a good shot down the lane to close that race down. SQUEEZE was impressive in going two-for-two from off the pace last year for Clement; tough spot, but interested to see what we get off the layoff.

FOURTH RACE

MIKADO improved his position late in lone start last year on turf; switch to the main track off the layoff may work for gelding whose second-dam won multiple stakes on dirt, including the Canadian Oaks, before getting a shot in the Grade 1 Test as a 3yo. BASIC HERO hasn’t improved all that much from the beginning of his career up to now, but he is the clear horse to beat while getting an overdue drop in class, and he should be using his speed right from the start. SPRING EMPEROR lands in a good spot for first career start, and he goes for underrated debut trainer (Ryerson 8-for-48 with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past five years (17%), with a $3.89 ROI. WON’T BURN improved his figure enough in that last one to make him competitive right back, but it’s hard to watch that race and not think that he should have gotten it done there; tries again.

FIFTH RACE

LOVER’S KEY has won three straight on turf since adding blinkers, and she has been impressive in all three; has to sprint this time, but she held her own in lone prior NY start on turf, and her new trainer, who wins at a high percentage, has had only one other starter on this circuit over the past five years, that a close runner-up effort in the Hill Prince with a 39/1 shot. VERY FASHIONABLE made a favorable impression in her Saratoga

debut when clearing the front with the best speed, and then finishing that race off in the stretch; layoff the concern, but she can clearly get fit off of workouts. MISS FREEZE made lone 2yo start in a stakes race, and she came through with an impressive performance to easily handle that field with a solid figure; don’t love this sire on turf, but there is some grass on the dam-side (dam herself was a two-time winner on grass), and that debut suggests that she has some ability. WONDERFUL LIGHT one of four exiting that sloppy track maiden wired by Blessed Halo here last month, and he appeared to go greenly through kickback in that race after winding up last early, before racing on gamely late down on the inside; half to the good sprinter By the Moon eligible to improve quickly with that one behind him. SWITZERLAND was also in that race, where he got off to a very awkward start before appearing to really dislike those conditions en route to third consecutive loss as an odds-on favorite; difficult to want to go right back to him, but am not as against him as I could be considering that last one, and the fact that he did seem at least a little unlucky in each of his first two starts. JAVELIN took a good try in his debut before settling for 3rd with a solid figure, then chased that front-running winner over the slop last time; breaks from the rail again. SPECIAL INTENTION of interest shipping in for sharp trainer to make his debut; well-bred colt brought $500k at auction, but his dam turned out to be better on turf & synthetic.

SEVENTH RACE

VOODOO SONG makes return to turf for first time since impressive score over maidens as a 2yo where he eventually settled after pulling hard early on, and then fired a good one once clear in the stretch to run over the leaders; hasn’t done much running on dirt since then, but is eligible to improve back on this surface, which he will have to do. VINTAGE MATTERS second back off the layoff after landing in fast-paced race last month, and racing on late to land a piece; posted easy win over fellow NY-breds after a nice trip to break his maiden over this course, then just missed going back-to-back when losing out on an unlucky bob. CLUTCH CARGO has developed a late-running style that, while suited to this surface, has been leaving him with too much to do recently; prefer him on this surface, and he should be racing on at the end.

EIGHTH RACE

While all eyes in the Wild Applause with be on RUBILINDA, perhaps with good reason, I’ll take a shot against with TALAAQY, who has run well in all four career starts to date, including that last one when closing down a sensible pace from last-tofirst; a little light on figures on the way in, but don’t think that tells the whole story regarding her efforts to this point. RUBILINDA caught everyone’s attention when closing down that field on debut after racing very greenly through the opening stages, before leveling off in the stretch to produce an eyecatching run; has to stretch out, and is likely to be over bet in this race, but she may turn out to be a runner. RUM GO took a big step forward to produce a new top figure after a perfect trip in her first start for this trainer; good trip coming from the inside, and did she really run all that much worse than likely much shorter price LULL in last year’s Jessamine? LULL a major contender with an apparent pace advantage, and don’t mind the mile for her, but don’t love that Soaring Softly she exits as a race, overall.

NINTH RACE

TASIT endured a long layoff following his impressive win at Keeneland early on as a 3yo, and while his first two starts back don’t exactly suggest that he has returned every bit as good, he did make a run into a good setup after a wide trip in that first start back, and think he was compromised in that last one in a race that, while featuring a fast pace, was never coming back to him after he was taken back to last; one more try as he takes on some added distance. MONTCLAIR has no distance issues, and he has been badly compromised in each of his two starts up here, first in pace-less race dominated wire-to-wire by Roman Approval, and then that last one when staying in for the stretch run and getting completely buried behind horses; needs a trip from the outside if in. SOLUBLE stretched back out and was forced to take a very wide run around horses before coming up a bit short in that last one; tough post, but think he’s okay. CALL PROVISION a NY-bred with some ability for leading trainer, and he showed that he can stretch it out before hitting the sidelines last year; can be a difficult ride, but may ultimately prove to be better going longer.

TENTH RACE

KIERLAND appeared to need that debut while racing in spots early and then flattening out readily late after making a run to contention along the inside; blinkers on in good spot to take a step forward. BATS CLEANUP has had a couple of good trips in a row that he couldn’t really do much with vs. better horses; class drop makes sense for horse who is unlikely to find the right field at that level this time of the year. THE GREAT SAMURAI didn’t catch much pace to run at in his first start back this year, which remains his only turf start since last November; closer needs some pace, but he figures tough as he makes his first start for a tag on turf. WONDERMEISTER got caught