ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, BATTLE OF MIDWAY

FIRST RACE

Notwithstanding 12 losses since her maiden-claiming win two years ago, BLONDY’S REWARD gets the call to upset likely favorite AWARD IT in this turf route, restricted $25k claiming. BLONDY’S REWARD finished fourth last out vs. similar, and actually ran okay. Three- and four-wide much of the trip, lost considerable ground into the lane, still finished well in a race dominated by the co-favorites. ‘BLONDY is reunited with the rider that rode her to a respectable runner-up finish two starts back at this level; she should get a ground-saving trip and adds blinkers. Tough to trust a mare whose most recent win was July 2015, but the alternative is not very attractive. That is AWARD IT, curiously dropping to claiming with a pedigree that seems worth more than the $25k tag. Sired by Tapit, with a top female family (including G1-winner sibling Persistently) AWARD IT has the top figures and only lost by three lengths last out when fourth in a N1X. Her odds are likely to be unattractive; on numbers she is the one to beat. HENNESSY STORM was rank and keen early, then split the field in the same race the top choice exits. That was her first on the Santa Anita turf after decent efforts at Turf Paradise. She could get a good trip behind stretch-out sprinters AVAUDREY and MAGICAL LUCY.

SECOND RACE

Slim pickings in this sprint for maiden special-weight fillies and mares. The experienced runners are modest; this is an ideal spot for a first-time starter with sharp workouts and a winning stable. SO I SANG fits the description. Her pattern includes a solid six-furlong gate move here last weekend; trainer Jerry Hollendorfer can get the rookies ready to roll. Six and one-half furlongs is a potential challenge, but she gets in light with the streaking apprentice rider Evin Roman, and meets an average group. POINT STREAK finished third in her debut, a turf route last summer. This is her first start since. Trainer Bob Baffert usually sends out the comebackers ready to roll, yet maiden fillies and mares returning from long layoffs is a surprisingly soft category (1-for-15 past five years). CANDY SWIRLS finished an okay third in her debut, a $100k maiden-claiming sprint at five and one-half furlongs. She benefits from the additional furlong, and though moving up in class, this field might not be much tougher.

THIRD RACE

RED LIVY should be tough to catch in this maiden-50 turf sprint. She set a blazing pace last month in her special-weight comeback, led to inside the furlong pole, and then got swallowed and finished sixth. Second start back, dropping in class, drawn outside, short price to wire the field. AMARANTA has an upset chance, second start on the hill. She finished fourth vs. similar last out while improving over her debut, and could get a good trip positioned second behind the favorite. If the pacesetter falters, AMARANTA could be first to attack. FLOWER HEART DEER chased slow fractions and finished an okay third last out while improving on her debut. She is headed the right direction. First-time starter ENGLISH TALENT is a stablemate of the top choice. She is bred for a longer distance.

FOURTH RACE

BATTLE OF MIDWAY towers over this field, and should be tough to beat at a short price. Third in the Kentucky Derby, runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby, he has trained well since returning home, and basically “outclasses” this Grade 3. He has tactical speed, is versatile, runs fresh, and enters with only one knock. That is, price. BATTLE OF MIDWAY is likely to start at low odds. He also is likely to win. TERM OF ART has not quite put it all together, but he has been in some tough spots in races that did not unfold in favor of his closing style. One of these days, he will get a collapsing pace to run at, and rally for the upset. It would not be an upset here, however, because only five entered. TERM OF ART finished last in the Preakness; he was 46-1 and possibly positioned too close to the pace. ARMS RUNNER tries two turns and dirt, both for the first time, after a pair of sharp turf sprint wins. His pedi-

gree is okay for dirt (sibling to Calculator). If he wants the lead, he can have it. Come and catch him.

FIFTH RACE

This turf sprint for Cal-bred fillies and mares almost seems like a prep for the Fleet Treat Stakes for Calbred 3yo fillies July 30 at Del Mar. SPIN ME A KISS is the choice to win right back, following a decisive maiden win on this course. The 3yo filly was hounded through fast fractions (her pace rival finished seventh), and ran away to win by more than four. The knock is the race turned out non-productive; six runners ran back and produced only one maiden-claiming third. That is not the fault of SPIN ME A KISS, of course. She is sharp, copes with pressure, and should fire right back. TANGLED UP IN JU, a 4yo, will keep the top choice company while moving to grass for the first. In the money twice recently at this level on dirt, TANGLED UP IN JU figures if she handles the footing. At minimum, she could be a pest for the top choice. CORDIALITY is the late threat, first start since September. She was a N1X/optional claiming winner before going to the sidelines. If the top pair get in each other’s way, CORDIALITY looms an upset candidate from the back of the pack. LADY ESPIONAGE beat the top choice two starts back, but then regressed while the top choice improved.

SIXTH RACE

If he starts, COLLECTED is the one to beat in this G3 route. He crushed a minor stakes in his April comeback, and then followed with a decisive G2 victory that was validated when runner-up Follow Me Crev returned to finish second in the G1 Gold Cup. Sharp recent works by COLLECTED suggest he can pick up where he left off. He is 5-for-5 on “fast” dirt, including three graded wins. ACCELERATE has maintained top form for an extended period, in the money his last nine starts. His spring-summer campaign was interrupted in April when he got sick after shipping to Oaklawn, but he recovered quickly and finished a solid second last out in a N3X. The winner Danzing Candy returned to win a graded stake at Lone Star. ACCELERATE has aimed to this race for weeks, and would be a worthy favorite if the top choice defects. CAT BURGLAR is a 7yo seeking his first graded win. It is uncertain if he is as fast as he was one year ago, but he certainly seems to be working well. KEANE is a Group 1 winner from Argentina making his U.S. debut; DONWORTH has not started since a pair of tough trips in spring 2016.

SEVENTH RACE

MY BOY RUDY finished sixth by 11 in his debut, yet he gets the call to win second time out while dropping to maiden-20. He was off ndslowly in his debut, was climbing and visibly uncomfortable, made a little run wide on the turn and into the lane, and went flat. If he improves second time out, he can reel in the tiring speed. There should be plenty of that. BLOODLETTING dueled inside, sucked back, then “re-rallied” in a strange-trip seventhplace debut. He moves to an outside post; maidens from this stable often improve second out. CAL CAL LI GOWCHIS is pure heat, dropping in class, shortening in distance and making his first start since changing trainers. He is the speed of the speed. HOPPITY and SECOND GEAR also have speed.

EIGHTH RACE

Taking a shot again with UNAPOLOGETIC, who perhaps did not have a fair chance last out when third in a similar N1X turf route. He lost ground four-wide on the far turn and into the lane, then drifted in at the head of stretch to get behind runners before extricating himself and finishing evenly outside without being hard-ridden. It might have been a better-than-looked effort. Or maybe, he just was not good enough. This race came up relatively soft, UNAPOLOGETIC gets the call once again to post an upset. CROWN THE KITTEN is a legit late threat, while possibly facing an easier than the $32k claiming race last out in which he finished second (dq’ed to fifth). He will be running late, although he has been unable to finish the job. Since his most recent win in fall 2015, he has seven runner-up finishes, and a pair of thirds. RECORD HIGHS ran super in the same race the top choice exits. He set a blazing pace, stuck in there to deep stretch and missed by just slightly more than two lengths. He is the best of the speed, though stretch-out sprinter TEXAS TWO STEP could keep him company. RYE PATCH is a tough old pro that fits perfect, except for post 12 of 12 in this mile turf race.

NINTH RACE

First-time starter MOONLITE MADNESS, a fast-working Papa Clem filly produced by multiple graded winner Sweet August Moon, is ready to fire first time out in this maiden sprint for Calbred fillies and mares. Bullet works at Los Alamitos, seven-pound weight break with the apprentice, all systems go. Her sibling, the choice in race 10, was eased in his debut and then won second time out. HAILEY RACHELE ran well in her debut, runner-up after pressing an honest pace. She worked well since. PRINCESS DORIAN, runner-up twice as the favorite, is the high-figure filly although her Beyers are merely 61 and 62. COALINGA HILLS was a vet scratch May 28; she posted two sharp works since.

TENTH RACE

SIR SAMSON, sibling to race-9 top choice Moonlite Madness, looks like a standout in this starter allowance turf sprint. He pressed a blazing pace last out in a N1X/optional $40k claiming turf sprint, stuck in there to deep stretch, and finished a close fourth. He faces much easier here, is drawn comfortably outside, and should be tough to beat. CHIEF HOSA is the speed of the field. Blinkers off; his runner-up finish two starts back on this layout makes him a threat to wire the field. GIRO CANDITO found two turns too far, and finished fifth. But that was his first against winners and first on turf. He might benefit from the cutback in distance. RAINBOW SQUALL will be running late.