ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, FLYING TIPAT

FIRST RACE

CINEMA DOLL is a candidate to improve in her second start, which follows a sixth-place finish in an eight-horse field when debuting vs. straight maidens; now in for maiden $40,000. IN THE MOOD was a rare Wesley Ward trainee that broke slowly in her debut, running fifth after a tardy beginning; just not sure how to interpret the massive fire sale that is going on with Ramsey-owned horses. ROSE CANDY debuted with a second in a maiden claimer before being stepped up into a straight maiden race and running fifth; based on her debut run, fits vs. maiden claimers.

SECOND RACE

YOOOU DEN starts for connections that excel with claiming stock, and enters this race with promising low-end claiming form; 5 for 24 on dirt and leading rider Corey Lanerie up. DADDY’S MEMORY didn’t fire last time for $10,000 but had previously been in good form at Oaklawn and Indiana Grand; threat with a return to her best. HOLD ME TIGHT was ambitiously placed in her last two starts against starter company and $25,000 claimers; scored the last time she raced in a spot somewhat comparable to this one, winning an $8,000 N3L race at Tampa in April 23 three starts ago.

THIRD RACE

MOON GATE WARRIOR is dropped from $25,000 to $16,000 claiming after being competitive in recent starts against better. Barn is having a quiet meet but could get things going here. ZANDER ZONE starts for the always-dangerous Amoss/Moss connections but was disappointing first off the claim when sixth on turf; perhaps better on the way with the move to dirt, particularly at Churchill, where he is 2 for 6. KAPELLMEISTER was a brave winner for $30,000 last out, though in a N3L claimer in which he surprisingly found himself on the lead; aggressively spotted after clearing the N3L hurdle last time and now running in an open $16,000 race.

FOURTH RACE

BLACK WATER, by speed sire Bodemeister, debuts for Asmussen, who is the king of the juveniles at Churchill Downs in the spring; drawn far outside but a very long run to the turn in this six-furlong race, a very long 2-year-old race for this time of year; a half to Grade 2 winner Broken Sword. HOLLYWOOD STAR sold for $550,000 at auction last year at action, and has trained forwardly for Romans, who has already struck with a couple of first timers for these owners at the meet; related to one minor stakes winner and another stakes placed runner. ARRIVAL is a son of Tapit and a half brother to BC Classic winner Bayern that fetched $800,000 as a yearling; works are a quick, though that is par for the course for Casse.

FIFTH RACE

JILL’S FIREBIRD hasn’t started since last summer but showed promise in that race by showing speed and only fading late to be fifth; returns off a lengthy worktab for Maker, and drops all the way to the maiden cellar, $10,000. TOP TIARA just ran second at this class level after previously showing speed and repeatedly fading vs. classier. DIN’S FIRE had a troubled trip when fourth for this tag and seems capable of better with a smoother run; no published works after being claimed over a month ago.

SIXTH RACE

ALL UP IN LIGHTS ran well for $50,000 last out on dirt, setting a pressured pace and only yielding late to be fourth, beaten 2 1/4 lengths; now in the third start of his current form cycle and drops to his lowest tag, $30,000. MARINE PILOT owns respectable Beyers in the 70s, though he has not hit the board over his last four starts; prone to minor awards when he does fire. La-bred SHEER MAYHEM won first out and then ran fifth in a soft stakes race; fittingly dropped into a $30,000 N2L claimer by trainer Brad Cox.

SEVENTH RACE

FLYING TIPAT seems the best filly in the race and might get loose on the lead in a paceless race. The well-bred WESSEX was a sharp N1X winner but seems to be a filly that is best rated off the pace, perhaps the wrong style in a race with an

absence of speed. BEAULY overcame a troubled start in her U.S. bow to run down first-level allowance horses and now takes on more accomplished N2X runners.

EIGHTH RACE

PRECISELY PONTI is returned to her claim level of $8,000 after being outrun when fifth for $16,000. This level suits her properly, having run second the last time she raced for this tag. FIRSTRATE PROPOSAL sat out a month to return at the same $8,000 level after being claimed for this price May 26; sharp form over her last two starts. LIKE A HAINT is erratic but fast when she puts it all together; won two back before being outclassed and finishing eighth most recently vs. $16,000 stock.