ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, CIRCUMNAVIGATE

FIRST RACE

SUPER PSYCHE dropped to pick up long overdue first win on the inner dirt three starts back, and has since caught a pair of sloppy tracks, which he does not seem to care for; dropping to lowest level yet with enough speed to pull a trip. AUGIE’S COMING returned from a long layoff to run his race back in April, though it is hard to excuse a loss to Sir Maurice, who was posting just his second career win from 48 starts, and he came back to be defeated at a short price again; Rudy is strong off the claim with dirt routers (past five years, 38-for95, 40%, $2.67 ROI) which is the most appealing thing about this horse. LOWEN WARRIOR has earned a couple of figures that make him competitive here, and he posted his lone career win from a stalking position; no excuse last time when getting out-dueled by a longshot.

SECOND RACE

LOVELY LIVIA dropping for second start after racing greenly and getting outrun early on in her debut, but she was racing on some through the stretch, and won’t have to improve much in this spot; adds blinkers for new trainer who has had some success from limited starters. GRAND BANKS was a bit late to get going and then was pushed wide before racing on gamely in her return from the layoff, then stepped back up in class to chase and tire; drops to lowest level of her career looking like the horse to beat. GRANDE BESO caught some stretch traffic at this level on May 2nd before just missing 2nd at the end, and she has headstrong being rated early last time, before racing on gamely in the stretch without threat; seems much better on turf. PRIMA ATTRICE was also strongly rated in that last start at this level, and she too was racing on gamely in the stretch in an improved performance with new blinkers.

THIRD RACE

HISTORY SUPREME has a lot of distance on the dam-side of her pedigree, but she is a Speightstown, and like the way she has been breezing steady half-miles right along, though firsters from this barn can be a tough read; Ortiz 2-for-4 riding 2yo first time starters on dirt for Kiaran over the past couple of years. RADIANT BEAUTY brought $260k following 10.1 breeze back in March, and she looked like a bigger-type filly in that work; bred to go a little longer being an Orb out of a dam who was best routing on both surfaces, but Rudy very good first time out. SHE’S THE BERRIES has some speed on both side of her pedigree, which is surprisingly rare in this field, and she goes for a trainer who counts a pair of debut winners among his eight meet victories to date.

FOURTH RACE

CIRCUMNAVIGATE has made his last two starts going longer on turf to no avail, but he isn’t really bred for that surface; like him returning to dirt on a turn back, which appears to be his preferred surface, as his career debut was a solid effort while only second-best. NUT NUT came wide into a contested pace and just missed to a rail runner two starts back at this level, and he got held up behind horses last time as blowout winner Shadow Surprise was opening things up on the lead; has had his chances already, but he appears ready to break through. THE ORPHAN MIRACLE has hit the board just once from first six starts, but he has been facing better right along, and he gets a needed class drop for his first start of the year; 66 Beyer earned for second career start makes him fastest on the way in.

FIFTH RACE

PORTANDO switched to turf for the first time here last month, and he saw off his pace rivals in the upper-stretch before gamely holding a late closer who appeared to have the momentum on him down to the wire; tough right back if able to run as well off the claim for Linda. BASELINE will likely need to improve off of his recent maiden score to win here, but liked the way he came through a very tight opening to prevail in that spot, which

was only his second start on turf; new trainer doesn’t claim a lot, but has success when he does, though not so much on grass yet from a limited sample. DR. EDGAR improved to go 2-for-4 when switched to turf last summer, and he came up just short in most recent start at this level; trainer is excellent off of longer layoffs like this, especially in turf sprints: past five years, 180+ day layoff, turf, sprint, 3-for-11, with two 2nds and three 3rds, $4.12 ROI.

SIXTH RACE

DIVINE CAUSE went well for second-best in lone try sprinting on turf as a 2yo, and she was up against it off the layoff last time, not just for being sent out by a trainer does not excel in that situation, but because she was chasing wide on a day when the railed were down on the inner turf for the first time in a while; drops with speed, and Weaver tends to do much better second off the layoff. MY FIRST GAL also dropping for the first time, she off the layoff and with a trainer change; made her first turf start in that same turf sprint that the top one debuted in, and thought she went deceptively well there after being rated to the back of the field, and then having to angle wide for much of the stretch run while staying on. RECONSIDER IT likely to be a big price once again, but she was also outside in that 6/9 race behind DIVINE CAUSE, and she did run deceptively well in her first two career starts; can have one more chance to try to spice up the exotics. PATTY PERMITS a firster for Rudy with some pedigree for grass, being out of a dam who is a sister to turf millionaire War Dancer.

SEVENTH RACE

RECTIFY has improved for this trainer since claimed out of New Year’s Eve win for $25k, most notably in his most recent three starts, despite having only one win to show for it; game try before tiring in tough edition of the Affirmed Success last time, and while I would like to see them gunning for the lead here, he has proven to be successful from a tracking position in the past. CAPITAINE made a promising debut in a race that looked good at the time last summer, and he definitely improved to win his next start while contesting things from between horses all the way; stumbled in the Nashua, and don’t think the sloppy Smooth Air has to be held against him. POP THE HOOD facing tougher in this spot, but there are plenty of question marks in this field, and he has, if nothing else, been in good form since returning from the layoff. TAKAFUL starts over sprinting after disappointing as a dirt router in stakes company; impressed first time out in fast win, and chance remains that he just wants to sprint.

EIGHTH RACE

SPIGA made first two turf starts as a 3yo in allowance company, then buried maidens when dropped in class in August, before going on to hold her own in stakes company at the end of the year; landed a nice trip once she finally settled in her stateside debut, but was just no match for the impressive Grand Jete, and meets no one of that caliber in this spot. VAGABOND was okay while progressing as a 3yo for Shug, and she was unlucky when second to Puca over yielding ground in her final start of the year; no excuses in her first start back after a good trip, but she can come forward now. SEAFIRE a Godolphin castoff who was picked up for just over $42k in December; starts back going shorter after making all three starts last year over 10 furlongs, and she looked fine over there while pulling nice trips.

NINTH RACE

WITH EXULTATION a nice fit at this level, and he has been holding form recently vs. some better horses in Florida; appears to be plenty of pace to set up his run for trainer who, while he has struggled here, has also been a little unlucky. HIDDEN VOW draws poorly on the outside once again, and do prefer him going a bit shorter than this, but this is the right level, and he does not have to go after the pace in this spot, which may have been his undoing last time. POWERFUL INSTINCT has never been a prolific winner, but he can still go at this level, and any pace that develops helps him as much as anyone; got in too tough last time on that stretch out.