ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, MIKO

FIRST RACE

STRAIGHTAWAY MAY owns top three Beyer Speed figures in this field on the way in, and he cuts in half for his NY debut after getting stuck in a wide trip while contesting the pace at Keeneland last time; projects for the right trip this time with only one speed-type to his inside, that being HARTACK JR, who is making his first start back from a 483 day layoff. HARTACK JR raced very greenly after a poor start first time out, and returned to show more speed in his second start, only to blow a clear stretch lead late; 5yo has made just the two starts to date, and has the long layoff in his way. THIRSTY ACTOR was clearly second-best without threatening at all when turned back for the first time in March, and has since picked up a couple more checks without threatening to win; out-finished READ MY LIPS late in spill-marred race last time.

SECOND RACE

STORMY ALEXIS has some hang in her, as might be surmised from her overall record of one win and seven 2nds from 14 career starts, but she looks tough in this spot as she drops in class with her tactical speed projecting to play well; easy win while kept right up on a modest pace two back, and she was game last time while just failing to deny favored Red Parasol after making a stretch lead. TALKN TIL MIDNIGHT tends to find herself up against it with her closing style, but she has been competitive without fail since dropped in class, and that first start back may have served as a useful prep as she raced on gamely from last after being forced to sit inside through the turn. LITTLE MISS AMY couldn’t make the front at this level last time, and then couldn’t fight her way to the lead in the stretch before settling for a minor placing; should be able to clear the lead this time for trainer having a strong meet. WAR CANOE is bred for this surface, and she improved upon her turf debut last time to rally into 2nd, but only after receiving a perfect in/out ride from Rosario in a race where closers did well.

THIRD RACE

VASILIKA and LIGHTNING DOVE look like the right new faces to this group of $40k claimers, most of whom have little turf form to improve upon. VASILIKA was defeated at this level at Arlington last time, but by a horse who is 6-for-11 lifetime on turf, and she made her prior start vs. Queen Del Valle, who is 9-for-10 lifetime of grass, and won Woodbine’s Alywow stakes in her most recent start; safe to say she faces no one of that quality in this field. LIGHTNING DOVE has also been facing much better horses that the locals since switching over to turf, including that last one vs. Grade 1 winner Victory to Victory; big class drop for trainer having a solid meet here. WONDERFUL SAVVY has just the one turf start to go on, but she ran pretty well that day despite coming out on the short end of a stretch duel after a good trip.

FOURTH RACE

PLAY BIG will try to stretch out off the claim after getting on the improve for his prior connections, winning two of his last three starts, including new top figure score here just five days ago; his early speed figures to play well in this spot if he can get the mile, and while his new trainer is just 9-for-106 off the claim over the past five years, 6 of the 9 wins have come for sharp Epona group. GOING STRONG the horse to beat on the way in, but this is not exactly a comforting drop for trainer who doesn’t mind letting them go when they’re heading the wrong way, which may be the case here; looked good winning his NY debut in the mud way back in November, but it never got any better for him from there, and he was a complete nonfactor as the favorite last time. FIELDING GOLD, like his former stablemate PLAY BIG, has been on the improve this year while being kept in regular racing; defeated a weak field two back, but did it with little trouble, and he was chasing wide last time while the 1-2 finishers rode the inside.

FIFTH RACE

DOVECOTE was reined in and rated back from the start of that debut run here last month, but she started to run once she found room in the stretch,

and liked the way she lengthened her stride and finished up at the end of that race for 2nd, which suggests that she will handle the added distance of this race. HOMELAND SECURITY making first start back off the layoff over a tough distance, but won’t be surprised if she is ready to handle it for this trainer; debut effort better than it looks as she had to give away an awful lot of position in the stretch to get clear, though that race has not turned out to be a very strong one. DOUBLE CAST has always been better than she looks on paper, and she likely went a bit too soon in that last one before just getting nailed, though that was probably the time for her vs. a field that was weaker than this one; rider change a positive, but perhaps one race too late.

SIXTH RACE

PINCHBECK went well in both turf starts vs. open company at Tampa over the winter, the first when getting stuck in stretch traffic and never coming clear to run, and the second when getting caught up on a competitive pace all the way and just failing to hold at the end; faced a weak field when returned to NY last time, but she buried that field. MO PROMISE back to turf for 3yo debut, and prefer her on this surface despite her getting the lone 2yo win over a sloppy main track; career debut was a strong effort for 2nd behind recent stakes winner Lady Joan, and she really had little chance in open company PG Johnson in her next start. BELLE OF THE SPA was a big price when controlling the pace in her turf debut and denying first time starter Piquet on the wire at a big price, and she backed that race up quite well last time while past of a fast pace in a race that fell to closers; finds another field with no shortage of other speed, but she has outrun her odds both times on this surface.

SEVENTH RACE

DANCING ALL NIGHT made a promising debut when coming wide and finishing gamely for 2nd after a poor break over a wet Oaks Day track at Churchill, and she easily handled maidens over a route of ground up here last time; facing a couple of fillies with potential here, though she has as much of that as anyone, and she has already been the route of ground that they have not. STORMY’S SONG didn’t take much money for her career debut, but that mattered not as she always traveled strongly on the front end en route to an impressive blowout score; steps up and stretches out, but may be at least this good. NOCTURNAL MISSION was more game than anything else in her debut, but that was still a nice effort to close down some experienced runners, and she may have run the second-best race last time when coming with a three-wide run at a talented Downtown Mama on the lead, only to be turned away; better than she looks stretching out off two sprints.

EIGHTH RACE

TASIT endured a long layoff following his impressive win at Keeneland early on as a 3yo, and while his first two starts back don’t exactly suggest that he has returned every bit as good, he did make a run into a good setup after a wide trip in that first start back, and think he was compromised in that last one in a race that, while featuring a fast pace, was never coming back to him after he was taken back to last; one more try as he takes on some added distance, this time at a price. HELLO DON JULIO doesn’t have all that much to show for it, but he has run well in both starts since returning from a layoff; stretches nd out to a distance he is comfortable with, but there is, once again, other speed for him to deal with. MONTCLAIR not exactly a winning-type at 3-for-26, and a 1-for-13 mark since arriving on these shores, but he has no distance issues, and he has been badly compromised in each of his two starts up here, first in pace-less race dominated wire-to-wire by Roman Approval, and then that last one when staying in for the stretch run and getting completely buried behind horses. CALL PROVISION a NY-bred with some ability for leading trainer, and he showed that he can stretch it out before hitting the sidelines last year; can be a difficult ride, but may ultimately prove to be better going longer.

NINTH RACE

MIKO doesn’t look like much on paper, but her debut on turf at the end of last year is not as bad as it looks after finding some trouble getting a run going on the turn and then having her rider not do too much with her once she was too far away, and that was, obviously, vs. way better horses; drop for her first start back may not be a great sign but you can claim one from Clement, especially for turf (past two years, first after claimed from Clement on turf: 8-for-21, 38%, $4.70 ROI), and that dirt sprint is hard to hold against her. PINCHPENNY removed the Lasix and added blinkers for her turf debut earlier this year, but nothing really worked for her there as she caught some traffic and took a bump at the top of the stretch, and then got in tight once again in the late stages; can do better if ready off the layoff. LION IN WAIT has had a pair of very good trips on turf while settling for second-best both times; tries again at another short price. BRAINCHILD dropping for 3yo debut and adding blinkers after racing on okay vs. some good horses last year; has the kind of speed that can be dangerous at this level.