ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, HOLIDAY BONUS

FIRST RACE

Abbreviated 8-race Friday card on the Jersey Shore gets the usual 12:50 ET start with a filly named REALLY looking as if she really could be the one to beat after the Farros took Rudy up on his dare earlier this month; likely the fastest of the fast in a turf dash with a predictable abundance of speed. MISSCHIEF MAAS comes favorably drawn in her Navarro debut when hoping there’ll be a toofast pace to favor her stalking style; comes realistically spotted after knocking out her last condition for Plesa at 2-5. VERY HUMOROUS matches up with these on paper, although the time between races is reason to proceed cautiously; from one good barn (Kassen) to another (Hills).

SECOND RACE

Reverting to his Gulf form could be enough to make FIFTY EIGHT OG a winner in a $16k sprint that drew mostly 3yos exempted from the prevailing N2L condition; open-air outside box should afford Gallardo sufficient options; Cibelli barn started the meet with 10 1sts or 2nds from its first 17 starters, and how swell is that; there all the way. DON’T MAKE IT EASY goes turf-to-dirt when liable to lurk in the shadows with Juarez; can trip out nicely from just in behind the early goers. SALT IT HERE was 6-5 in winning a similar beaten race here 12 days ago; obviously a player here.

THIRD RACE

Difficult to say exactly how LIGHTNING FLASH will fare on this shift to the main track, but boy, he sure won’t have to be much to prevail in this weak $7.5k route when adding blinkers and taking a nominal class drop; one of a trio of 3yos in here rating a solid chance. The others are SOUL PRINCE, a 3-time winner who draws the favorable rail slot after surely needing his latest at Parx, and PRINTER, whose recent form isn’t pretty but who does boast a 6-figure bankroll that speaks to a measure of back-class.

FOURTH RACE

DON’T TELL VANESSA was 17-10 when running respectably in a pair of races already this meet for this same beaten-nickel condition, including just one Friday ago when earning the dreaded “broke through gate prior” from the chart crew. Figures a similarly low price once again when wheeling back very quickly for Navarro, who continues to ring up wins at a rapid pace (20 for his first 50); rates a slight edge. Farther outside, JACKIE’S DISCO and PROPER PRINCESS loom the main foes, both for winning stables; the former was 1-2 when a distant 2nd on the plunge to this level, and the latter goes turf-to-dirt on a slight stretchout while dropping to a competitive level.

FIFTH RACE

Close-up runner-up finish in his first try after being assimilated into the Hills stable makes PIAZZA DEL CAMPO the obvious one to beat in this $20k mdn.-claimer going long on the grass; 6 in-money finishes imply a bothersome reluctance to win, but it sure seems like he’s never been in so easy; very well could be Graduation Day. MOUNTAIN FIGHTER is the wild card after being regrouped since he was tried over the jumps last fall; reputable Maryland connections (Hendriks) make him a real threat here, regardless of the long layoff. DUE TIME has had 21 chances already, ugghh; share-shot, but that’s all.

SIXTH RACE

Benny Perkins and his dad made their names more than a quarter-century ago with young horses such as HELEN’S LAST DANCE, a first-timer who comes well-prepped with a series of local works that should have her ready to tackle what appears to be an ordinary group of Jay-bred filly-mare maidens; tote could yield the most revealing clue. Right alongside, EBONY BALL steps up after showing sustained speed when debuting for a tag; must show she’s worthy at this more difficult level, but she does have that valuable education under her now. BEACH TAG pushes the envelope; stands a chance to hold part as she’s done a few times before.

SEVENTH RACE

Rail-drawn HOLIDAY BONUS and Juarez can allow

the speed to his outside to roll away early, all the while saving ground for when those eager ones start to get limber. He came running home to be second in this same sort of 1x turf alw. when it was run Preakness Day, and that followed a decent effort vs. good ones at Keeneland; seems one more little forward move can get him over the top for Team Motion; call him the day’s best. Similarly,

SUNSET DISTRICT and MUGGSAMATIC can benefit from all the opposing signed on; the former has been known to flaunt an effective kick given the right circumstances, and the latter exits 3yo-only stakes events while facing elders for the first time. EIGHTH RACE Two-turn distance is the obvious question facing DANCIN DEBBIE, who surely has the ability to run these plodders off their feet as this beaten N2L route unfolds; DeMasi employs Juarez to dole out that superior speed in a reasonable measure; fans likely to respond by making this 3yo a big favorite to stay the course. DAME AMOUR surely needed the June 11 comeback in which she ran OK upon returning to the Pierce fold; can slog along for a piece of this. UNLIMITED RESOURCE drops in desperation after finishing ahead of just one rival in 3 starts since her late-March mdn.-breaker; perhaps best of the rest.