ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, UTANA

FIRST RACE

First-time gelding, first time maiden-claiming, PRINCIPAL BOB has a significant speed-figure advantage over most in this route. Trainer Paddy Gallagher is 4-for-8 with droppers from MSW at 3-1 odds or less. SAGITTARI ran okay last out, runner-up in a maiden75. He has more tactical speed than the top choice, and is racing at this lower maiden-40 level for the first time. KIONNTAL returns from a long layoff as a firsttime gelding, first time maiden-claiming. He has been off a year and a half, but trainer Dan Hendricks has won with 3 of his last 9 comebackers off six months or more. Two were big longshots ($33.60 China Girl Lover, $44.40 Songforjohnmichael). HARD ARCH returns to dirt and switches to hot apprentice rider Evin Roman, who enters the week second in the standings, just one win behind meet leader Flavien Prat.

SECOND RACE

Three-time runner-up UTANA is the most probable winner on the Friday card. Her most recent start was her best yet. Running two turns for the first time, she lost ground on the far turn, finished more than six lengths clear of third, and ran fast enough (81 Beyer) to win most special-weight races for maiden fillies and mares. This class level tends to run to form. Since the start of the winter meet, MSW F&M route favorites are 3-for-4. The only knock on UTANA is price. Her odds are likely to be short. DANUSKA’S MY GIRL finished behind the top choice twice this spring in sprints, this is the first time they have met around two turns. It also is the first route for DANUSKA’S MY GIRL, who adds blinkers and is quick enough to set the pace. Come and catch her. TIZ MY LOVE stretches out following a pair of creditable sprints at seven furlongs.

THIRD RACE

LITTLE BIT LOVELY returns to a sprint after running super last out in a mile turf race around two turns. She sped to the lead, set a blazing pace (45.31 and 1:09.15), and held third behind a pair that rallied from the second half of the field. LITTLE BIT LOVELY has won 3 of 7 on the hill, and could be long gone. MADAME MOUSSE was no match for the top choice when they met early last month, but ‘MOUSSE may have had an alibi. She bobbled at start, then uncharacteristically sped forward to contest the pace. Not surprisingly, she chucked it and finished sixth. Freshened since, drawn outside, a stalking/closing trip expected, she is a legitimate threat from off the pace. And, she is a horse for course. Four starts on the hill produced two wins and a second. She is trained by Mike Machowsky, who also entered SUMMMER LADY first start off the claim. Runner-up by a neck last out while finishing a neck in front of the top choice, SUMMER LADY figures as a secondary contender.

FOURTH RACE

The sharp N3L claiming win last out by BEST TWO MINUTES stamps the gelding as the most likely winner up in class to unrestricted $20k claiming. He dueled on a strong pace last out, and kicked away by open lengths. Big win by a sharp gelding from a hot stable. Jack Carava has fired at a 25 percent clip the past three months. WHERE Y’AT JOE JOE completely misfired last out, last of six while adding blinkers. Blinkers are off, and he is reunited with Tyler Baze. His in-the-money finishes in April and May put him in the thick of it. Seems like he promises more than he delivers, but might deserve one final shot on the drop. OUT OF PATIENCE is the late threat, going route to sprint. A 10-time winner, he is 5-for-12 in sprints. HACKLETON is curiously placed in this $20k claiming race, after finishing fourth last out for $6,250. But he has been competitive in the past vs. better, has run numbers that are fast enough, and might improve second start back from a long layoff. Upset candidate.

FIFTH RACE

Both starts by 2yo maiden filly SHOW IT N MOE IT were good, including a runner-up finish last out against open company in which she finished more than four lengths clear of third. Back with California-bred maidens, and “stretching out” to five furlongs, SHOW IT N MOE IT the one to beat. NATIVE JAYLO finished an okay third two weeks ago in her career debut. She is wheeling back rather quickly, but trainer Jeff Bonde did the same thing last month with Ismelucky. She finished a distant second in her debut, then wheeled back two weeks later and won clear (albeit with a lower figure). NATIVE JAYLO adds blinkers, and is eligible to improve. SAPPHIRE KID also adds blinkers for her second start. She was caught four-wide into and through the turn in her debut, and offered little in the lane. Maiden 2yos always are eligible to move up

second time out. GOT AN OBSESSION scratched from the June 16 race, worked an easy half-mile since. She is the first foal produced by multiple stakes winner Got an Itch.

SIXTH RACE

BIRD IS THE WORD shortens to what might be his preferred distance (mile turf), while he drops from stakes to allowance. All four starts at a mile on turf were solid including a runner-up finish in a stake, troubled fourth in a stake, and impressive maiden win. There is enough pace to flatter his closing rally. ELWOOD J found nine furlongs out of reach last out; he faded to seventh. Still not sure if he wants two turns, but his runner-up finish two starts back in a mile turf stake at Golden Gate puts him in the picture. MIDNIGHT PLEASURE is the knockout, first start since being gelded. He previously was a “studdish” colt with his mind on things other than racing, but since being gelded he has refocused his energy. Owner-trainer Mick Ruis quietly having a solid season; he and jockey Chantal Sutherland are 3-for-6. MIDNIGHT PLEASURE drops from a runner-up sprint vs. older, into an allowance for 3yos. KONA DREAMS is Bill Spawr first off the claim, and that is reason enough to give him a second look despite the outside post.

SEVENTH RACE

MUNNY SPUNT is sharp, having won three of her last four. She ran the race of her career last out, winning as the favorite at this same level. Low odds right back, and the one to beat. SOCIAL TABOO misfired last out at odds-on, in a tougher spot. She meets easier, her maiden win two back at five and one-half furlongs makes her a logical contender. YELLOW BONNET trounced maiden-30s last out by more than five lengths; she finished second behind SOCIAL TABOO two starts back. LADY CLOUD broke slowly from the rail, and finished last. She moves outside, and gets a key rider switch to the apprentice Roman.

EIGHTH RACE

Runner-up at this class (maiden-50 Calbred turf) last out while more than three lengths clear of third, GEE STREET is the obvious choice. Weird statistic department: trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Corey Nakatani have lost seven straight with turf favorites, before that they won 5 of 6. GEE STREET looks solid. LETHAL LEGACY missed by only a neck two weeks ago in an open maiden-50, her first with Flavien Prat and second for trainer Gary Stute. The filly drops back into the state-bred ranks and will be rolling late. CHRISTIANA’S SONG finished fourth both starts vs. specialweight Calbreds, and now drops in for a tag.