ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, PARLOR

FIRST RACE

PARLOR is a graded placed turf horse with a 2 for 5 record on the lawn; three Beyers in the 80s in as many turf races this year. HEY MIKE showed potential early as a 2-year-old and after a quiet second half of his juvenile campaign and into the early part of his 3-year-old year, woke up with a victory last out at Indiana Grand, albeit against just first-level allowance horses. ROYAL BY NATURE appears to be coming around and now is in the third start of his current form cycle after a third in a N3L allowance May 29, which had followed a fifth in a stake in his seasonal bow; a stakes winner last year, though at Louisiana Downs.

SECOND RACE

EGYPTIAN rates a narrow edge in a competitive allowance on the basis of his consistency; he just missed to a quality foe in Money Flows, and has hit the board in 5 of his last 6 starts; regularly posts Beyers in the upper 80s. FAR RIGHT won the Grade 3 Southwest in 2015 and ran second to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the 2015 Arkansas Derby, and after those striking accomplishments, has largely underachieved since; perhaps ready to regain peak form after a quality comeback when third in the slop here; 5-1-1-2 at Churchill with his only unplaced effort here coming when 15th in the 2015 Kentucky Derby. FLASHY JEWEL is an honest former claimer that is graded placed this year and just recently third in an optional claimer; finished a length behind the top choice May 287 and 4 1/4 lengths behind FAIR FIGHT over a sloppy track May 6.

THIRD RACE

MISS COCO has won two straight and stands a strong chance to repeat if she can maintain her sharp current form for trainer Gary Gray, who claimed her last out from Phil Sims; has an affinity for this racetrack, going 3 for 6 here, compared to 0 for 4 on all other dirt tracks. SLAM CHOWDER is a tricky mare to evaluate, having raced mostly in restricted NY-bred company; yet to see a tag, though, in 11 starts since breaking her maiden at first asking. GINGERMORE just ran third against a notch easier company but starts for winning connections and merits respect based on a 4 for 14 overall mark on dirt.

FOURTH RACE

PAULINE REVERE has shown continued improvement in four starts, going from sixth, to fifth, to fourth to second; now ready to take the next step to first. DONA SPEY took a huge Beyer leap last out on the grass at Arlington by finishing second, beaten a head, and posting a 67 Beyer. Although there are no monsters in here, a maiden race at Churchill is stronger than one at Arlington due to having almost double the purse. BODIE’S VALENTINE debuts for winning grass connections and has worked quickly a few times, such as when he went five eighths in 1:00 4/5 June 4 at Trackside; mixed signals in terms of pedigree regarding her ability to handle turf - sire Bodemeister has much better numbers on dirt than turf, but dam did have a second on the grass.

FIFTH RACE

CANIFORM scored a good-looking maiden win in pretty quick time, though on a glib surface, and stands a good chance to repeat against N2L company. FAT DADDY, an uncoupled barnmate, also comes off a maiden claiming triumph, though for $10,000, not $20,000. The speedy BLABIMIR is the great unknown, a horse that won a maiden race over Aristocratic last year at Los Al but who has been eased in three of five starts; Lanerie does land on this one for Walsh, however - and they’re 6 for 15 together at CD in 2016-2016.

SIXTH RACE

COPPER BULLET and TEN CITY both impressed in winning maiden races, with the former doing so second out over the Churchill strip and the latter at Keeneland; giving the edge to ‘BULLET given the dominance of Asmussen over the years in spring/ summer baby stakes at Churchill. MO DIDDLEY took a right hand turn to the track kitchen in his debut, and somehow still managed to win, though he did so narrowly against a suspect field; seemingly capable of running a lot faster with a proper start.

SEVENTH RACE

SAKONNET made a premature move when lit up with blinkers in the Arlington Classic and faded to fifth after his ill-timed surge; blinkers come off and he is back to a maiden race, and shipped down from Arlington to run for the fatter maiden purse at Churchill. ICONIC was away poorly and a little dull when fourth here June 2 after a more promising second to next-out winner Fifth Title over this course earlier in the meet. MAKE AMERICA GREAT has two seconds, a third, and a fourth over his last four starts with one of those runner-up finishes coming last out on this course.

EIGHTH RACE

SHE’S A JULIE was an eye-catching debut winner for Asmussen, who as noted in the Bashford Manor analysis, has historically dominated these spring 2-year-old baby races at Churchill. AMBERS PATRIOT won first out and then just missed when second in a three-horse photo in the Kentucky Juvenile during Derby week; capable of coming from just off the pace, a key given the six-furlong distance and presence of abundant speed. SUNNY SKIES rolled by nine lengths first out at Keeneland, though against a weak field; now lands the rail, which can be an intimidating position for an inexperienced juvenile.

NINTH RACE

ANYTHING YOU CAN DO romped in a starter on a fast track here May 2, but then may have bounced or disliked a wet track when a non-threatening fourth here in an allowance May 21; loses Lanerie but lands Geroux, who rode her to a runner-up finish in a grass race at Keeneland last year. ANNATHELA has a history of minor awards but fits nicely against this group; did record her lone victory in 11 starts over this strip. TOASTED finished just ahead of ANYTHING YOU CAN DO when third in the aforementioned May 21 start; regularly runs Beyers in the 70-73 range. Of the others, the trickiest read is DROP DEAD RED, who romped last out in a claimer with an 86 Beyer with Lanerie (who returns), but is a filly that doesn’t regularly run that quickly.

TENTH RACE

LIMOUSINE LIBERAL took the long way around in winning the Grade 3 Aristides after defeating a better field in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs May 6; 825K earner is the class of the race. RECOUNT is an honest sprinter with an 11-for-28 record, has a versatile running style and is 3-2-1-0 over the Churchill strip with his only loss coming in a race in which he ran almost too well to lose with a 98 Beyer. THE TRUTH OR ELSE is a late-running sprinter that occasionally pulls off surprises at prices with victories at 28-1, 6-1 and 7-1 since July 2016; needs to make up a few lengths on LIMOUSINE LIBERAL, who finished in front of him in both the Churchill Downs and Aristides.

ELEVENTH RACE

The meet comes to a close in the 11th and final, a maiden $30,000 claimer in which OFF ROAD seems a class standout. Second in two of his last three starts, he is cut down from maiden $75,000 to maiden $30,000 claiming. CADILLAC RED is another in good form, having been the runner-up in his last two, but for maiden $20,000 and maiden $30,000; speedy enough to handle a cutback from two-turn routes to a oneturn sprint. MALIBU AT MIDNIGHT is a straight maiden dropper that adds blinkers after failing to keep pace vs. classier; perhaps the shades will improve him - he has often worked quickly in the mornings.