ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, DEUCES HIGH

FIRST RACE

LOVE AND CARE has been unlucky trying to get a turf race to go so far this year, but prefer him on this surface based on debut last March where he actually did some racing after a green start vs. a solid field of horses; found too tough of a spot in only other run on grass, for which he was stretched way out in distance. LONG NIGHT just missed in second career start at GP with the top figure in this field, then matched that Beyer while cutting the pace and getting out-finished in his NY debut; dropping with enough speed to keep close. CHAPIN raced greenly from the start and was along late for a piece in Tampa debut that came over a year ago; can do better if ready to go off the long layoff, which isn’t exactly a specialty for this trainer.

SECOND RACE

JEWEL CAN DISCO improved noticeably when switched to dirt last year, flashing big speed in both of his starts and only getting run down late; tough here if he can take a step forward off the layoff. GREAT BLAKE was up with a pace that wasn’t very competitive in sloppy track debut last month, but he has no chance with heavily-favored Giant Expectations anyway, and was left behind through the stretch; trainer only okay on debut, but he gets much better with his maidens making their second career start in dirt sprints (past five years, 23-for-82, 28%, $2.69 ROI). I MISS MY FATHER a half to 10-time winner Quick and Easy and 9-time winner Haya’s Boy debuting for trainer who can win with a firster. PRINCE REIGNER a half to the multiple stakes winning mare Go Unbridled, but that horse wanted to go long.

THIRD RACE

SHORT KAKES turning back to sprint for the first time since the end of last year, but think she may be better off trying a shorter trip after battling out some solid paces going longer on both turf and dirt; handles this surface, and it’s not like there is a ton of speed in this field. No idea what happened with CAN’ T CATCH TH ERA XX when stretched out last time, but she had run well sprinting on turf prior to that, including that race two back where she got little help from her 7lb. bug rider and was just out-finished at the end. MAY FLOWERS tough to take on top at 1-for-20, with seven runner-up finishes, but she continues to make her run when placed in this kind of spot; too late again in her return to NY last month. MAKEALITTLELOVE wired a weak field in her turf debut last time, and there was almost no running going on behind her after she denied the longshot up on the pace with her in the stretch; dangerous trainer, but she has to improve to win this.

FOURTH RACE

DEUCES HIGH sporting an on-off pattern on the way in, but his “off” races are excusable, including that last one when enduring a brutal wide trip over a track that featured a gold rail; didn’t run well over that sloppy track here last October, but he is otherwise two-for-two around one-turn on dirt, and his tactical speed allows leading rider plenty of options. JET BLACK tailed off form at the end of last year after getting a lot of racing in; freshening may have done him plenty of good, and he is capable of a race that would make him very tough in this spot. WEST HILLS GIANT off the claim for a going concern, but if Diodoro can get him into the winner’s circle, he can do just about anything; hasn’t won a dirt race since he was a 2yo back in 2012, and hasn’t finished first in any race since he was three (32 straight starts), though he was placed 1st once along the way.

FIFTH RACE

GOODBYE BROCKLEY made first two starts on

dirt and ran pretty well both times without really threatening to win either one; half to the good turf filly Lady Joan, who also races for these connections, switches over for the first time. DREAMS

ARE PAZIBLE debuted in dirt sprint won by I Still Miss you, who came right back to win the Astoria with a 74 Beyer, and she ran better than it looks there after a tough wide trip; all turf on the dam-side of her pedigree, and Pletcher aces with maidens making second career start in turf sprints on the NYRA circuit: 9 for last 21, 43%, $3.28 ROI. QUIETLY QUICK the first foal from her dam, who posted all three career wins sprinting on grass; Clement one of the better debut trainers on the grounds. As opposed to Pletcher’s strong numbers with second time starters in turf sprints, he has not been particularly strong debuting in these races, but his BLUE ATLAS is bred for turf, and has breezed over the grass upstate a couple of times already.

SIXTH RACE

MOJO’S QUEEN dropped in class to sprint on turf for the first time off the trainer change, and she was impressive in burying that field with a strong run through the stretch; stepped up off the layoff and found that field too tough, but is a much better fit back at this level. LAURA’S PATRIOT an unlikely win candidate at 1-for-27 on the way in, but she is getting back to a more appropriate level for this after returning from the layoff in good form; look for her late. DELTALINA dropping for the first time after showing her speed and finishing nowhere off the layoff; class relief helps, and her speed usually plays, but she hasn’t proven to be very good.

SEVENTH RACE

OFF LIMITS one of three for Chad in wide open Perfect Sting, and the only one requiring a rider change with Irad opting for ANCIENT SECRET, but she appears to be every bit as talented as her two stablemates, and she took a nice step forward to comfortably roll over a field off the layoff, after frequently getting unlucky last year; needs a trip, but may wind up being the right price. Will give ON LEAVE the benefit of the doubt for her first start back, where she couldn’t gain ground late in a race without much pace, but she is a 4yo with something to prove, and she is holding no edge right now as the likely favorite. CONQUEST BABAYAGA was kept quiet off the pace for a long way before finally being turned loose and finishing fast a little too late in Grade 3 company last time; clearly improved since the trainer change. Would love to go back to MY SWEET GIRL at a price one more time, and she is better than her overall record indicates, but admit to being a little tired of her; include her somewhere.

EIGHTH RACE

WICKED MACHO gamely held on to break his maiden at first asking on the Derby undercard, then scratched from this condition on Belmont Stakes weekend and opted for a much tougher race on Belmont Day where he made a fast pace before getting buried in the stretch; figures tough stepping way back in class. FORMAL START always a big price, but he is better than he gets credit for, and he can finish; up against it a bit in that last one over a track that was carrying speed on Wood Day, and he had a little early trouble before rallying gamely into 2nd two starts back. DUQUESNE WHISTLE had a tough trip and ran well two back behind Bobby on Fleek, then showed his speed but wound up contesting the pace before proving to be no match for favored Cause for Surprise and the late-running BENEVOLENCE last time; outside post helps his cause.

NINTH RACE

MY MISS TAPIT up in class and stretching out for the first time off a bit of a layoff, but wonder if she might not be one of Pletcher’s better fillies at this point following first two starts, where she was impressive both times; didn’t look like a 5-furlong horse at all on debut, but levelled off into a nice run to put that field away, and she took the race right to a good horse last time, before proving to be too much for her at the end. UNCHAINED MELODY sat an easy trip up on the pace when stretched out to this distance last time, but she was also much the best there while earning the top figure in this field; not much other pace for her to deal with in this spot, either. VEXATIOUS the preferred filly exiting the Oaks over the ML favorite LOCKDOWN, though neither one has to win this race; VEXATIOUS tried a wide run into that fast Oaks pace, while LOCKDOWN got a mostly nice run along the preferred inside, and VEXATIOUS also went well in that Fantasy two back after a bit of a trip.

TENTH RACE

CONQUEST SEE YA exiting odd race at Penn National that featured a runoff leader who never came back; dropping in class for this, and he is better off over these shorter distances, anyway.

LONE TRADER also prefers sprinting on turf, and he was just out-closed by a good winner late when turned back to six last time; positive rider change for this. MAN OF WIREGRASS finished 2nd in both NY turf starts last year without excuse, but he has since been claimed by Mike Maker, and his lone turf start for this barn came around two-turns upstate; class drop for his return.