ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, PRIVY

FIRST RACE

Second-time starter ARMOUR PLATE is ready to stretch out and win. The 2yo colt trained well into his debut, finished an even-paced fourth, and now adds blinkers and stretches to a mile. The son of Into Mischief (15 percent wins on turf) is a sibling to a G3 winner, the race he exits has turned out productive; runner-up Serengeti returned with smashing maiden win last weekend. STAY GLAD finished with run in his third-place sprint debut, and then second time out he merely ran around the track. Seems like two turns will be up his alley. First-time starter KAZAN is by firstcrop sire Shanghai Bobby, with grass pedigree in his female family. First-time starter OLD SCHOOL IKE is hung on the far outside in this mile turf race, but these connections win too many races to toss.

SECOND RACE

Second-time starter PRIVY should be long gone as the most probable winner on the card. She did the dirty work in her runner-up debut, pressing a hot pace, opening up at the eighth pole, and then getting collared by a filly that rallied from dead last. PRIVY finished more than four lengths clear of third, she shortens from six furlongs to five and a half, and should be long gone. Big trainer stat in her favor, also. Since July 2015, John Sadler has started 11 maidenclaiming favorites: 7 wins, 4 seconds. LI’L GRAZEN was the beaten favorite two straight. However, she was claimed last out by Jack Carava, who has won four straight first start off the claim, and six of his last nine. Back to one turn, she will rally late. ANCHOR BABY is a first-time starter from another winning stable.

THIRD RACE

Big class drop for PIONEEROF THE WEST, who was only prepping when he finished eighth in a N1X sprint that was tougher than this starter allowance. The pace scenario does not exactly benefit the stretch-runner, but with a comeback prep under his belt expect a forward move. This class level (started for $40k claiming, N1X) is a relatively new wrinkle to the condition book. PAPA PAPA PAPA is the potential lone speed; he could be long gone. He set a blazing pace last time going six furlongs, and held second in a fine effort. As the controlling speed in this seven-furlong sprint, he could be loose and might be gone. Trainer Mark Glatt has been on a roll; he entered the week having won with 7 of his last 17 starters. SENSE OF GLORY goes route to sprint and will roll late.

FOURTH RACE

DANZING CANDY figures to win this G2 seven-furlong sprint at a short price. Both dirt starts this year were decisive victories with triple-digit Beyers including a romp last out in a G3 route (muddy track) at Lone Star. He is the clear speed of the field, working well, and a low-odds favorite to lead this field gate to wire. Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith do okay with graded stakes favorites. They have won six straight, 14 of 20 since the King’s Bishop with Drefong last summer at Saratoga. RANSOM THE MOON turned into a new horse since moving to California and switching to dirt. His G2 victory last out was his second straight; he will be rolling from behind. COASTLINE was a vet scratch June 2, but returned to work well. Graded-placed sprinter seems a cut below.

FIFTH RACE

Despite losing two of his last three as the favorite, including a similar $20k claiming turf mile last time out, BRONZINO gets the tepid call first start off the claim. His rivals are simply not very good. The in-form gelding is in light with the hot apprentice, could be the controlling speed again, and on traditional handicapping should lead gate to wire. Tough one to trust, however. He faded the final furlong all three recent starts. This race actually has a chaotic look to it. MISSION DRIVEN got knocked around on the first turn last time, and completely misfired in the same race the top choice exits. Long time since he won, but he will run late. AFRICAN FIGHTER drops and gives turf another chance.

SIXTH RACE

LITTLE JUANITO has not started since a bang-up second in a fast-pace maiden special-weight in December, but his comeback workouts are solid and he appears to be the speed of the field. The Del Mar maiden race he exits turned out super productive. The winner American Anthem is a two-time graded winner; four that finished behind LITTLE JUANITO returned to win, including two subsequent stakes winners. RED LIGHTNING hung the length of the lane and finished a disappointing second as the odds-on favorite. He ran faster than he in his troubled debut, but wasted an apparently good trip. NEW DANCER debuts with a flashy work tab. His sire Fastnet Rock has quite an international reputation, but his dirt runners are few and far between. ZAP AGAIN might be ranked too low. His runner-up debut was good, but the race turned out counterproductive so far.

SEVENTH RACE

CARAY adds blinkers, drops in class, shortens to one turn, and can win this maiden-30 sprint with a pressing trip outside his main rival. That is BRADDOCK, third by less than a length last out in a maiden-75, yet dropping drastically in class. Seems like a curious drop for the high-figure horse in the field. Win or lose, he will impact the pace. From the inside post, he has no option except to go. Nothing wrong with the rail lately on this track. WHATA GUESS makes his career debut as a potential “sneak” in a race that seems ripe for a new shooter. This is a high-return category for trainer David Hofmans. The past five years, he is 6-for30 with maiden-claiming firsters; $3.78 return per $2 win bet.

EIGHTH RACE

Notwithstanding an off-the-board finish as the favorite last out in a G2 turf sprint, ENOLA GRAY is the choice to lead this field on a merry chase. She is the speed of the field, she won her only previous route, and she seems to have trained well since the comeback dud. Win or lose, she is the one they have to catch. SHEEZA MILKY WAY is improving every start, and going right up the latter. N2X win two back, N3X win last out, she will be rolling from behind. If the top choice does not stay, ‘MILKY WAY could be along in time. PLACE DES VOSGES shortens up from a pair of longer races; she also will be running late. JUNO figures for a cozy trip racing alone in second position. If the top choice falters out front, JUNO would be the first to attack.

NINTH RACE

TANNERS PRIDE dusted slightly easier last out, and she did it the hard way. Hounded through a strong pace, she shook off her pace rival and rolled home by nearly two lengths. Now he figures for a more comfortable trip, because he is drawn outside his main pace rival rather than being stuck inside. He is the one to beat, with a pressing trip. WILL TELL is the late threat, with a legit chance if the top choice and his pace rival hook up in a duel. WILL TELL has pretty much held his form all season, and will be picking them up late. FIGHT THRU is the aforementioned pace rival for the top choice. FIGHT THRU finished a respectable third last out at this Cal-bred condition; his speed makes him a threat to wire the field. Seems like the top choice will be hounding him every step, however.

TENTH RACE

CAPTAIN RON and UPPERCLASSMAN finished twofour last time out in a similar maiden-50 turf sprint; they are the principals back at the same class level. CAPTAIN RON set as blazing pace and held second while improving over his debut. He undoubtedly is the one to catch. UPPERCLASSMAN pressed the pace and did not tire until deep stretch in a promising return from a short break. He actually could be the “trip horse” positioned right behind the frontrunner. Both maidens are in the “must-use” category. REMESSES chased and faded in his comeback. Down a notch in class, with a comeback race under his belt, and switching to turf, he could improve.