ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, PAINTING CORNERS

FIRST RACE

One more chance for CONQUEST SMARTEE, maiden full brother to California sire Square Eddie with a second and a third in two California starts on the hill. Although he might prefer a distance that is longer than six and a half on the hill, there really isn’t much speed in this field and he should be forwardly placed near an easy pace. MILHAUD finished an okay second last out in a similar maiden turf sprint; the race was flattered when winner Allaboutmike returned to win a maiden40 starter. Like the top choice, MILHAUD should be close to the lead in a race likely to unfold at a soft tempo. PLACIDO cuts back to a sprint after a wide-trip midpack finish around two turns. Second-time starter AUSSIE FOX might have more speed than he showed in his debut. Looks like a modest field.

SECOND RACE

DIAMONDSANDPEARLS was purchased in March for $1.7 million; the 2yo Tapit filly has trained very well for her debut for Bob Baffert. She worked repeatedly in company, her final work early this week was solid. All systems go. MONDAYMORNINGBLUES was hammered to favoritism first out, but endured a horrible trip. She steadied repeatedly, did not have a clean run, and finished fourth. She moves to an outside post (5 of 6) for her second start, gets a rider switch to Tyler Baze, and should move up a ton with a race under her belt. She is trained by Peter Miller, who also entered first-timer FACTORIZE. The latter debuts with a series of sharp, short works and is likely to show gas. CALL BETSY appears to have trained okay for her debut.

THIRD RACE

The fifth-place debut by SHE BEGAN AGAIN was better than it looks. She broke dead last, lost ground fourwide through the turn, was not hard-ridden through the lane, and missed by only three and a half. She gets a rider switch to the hot apprentice, “stretches out” from five furlongs to seven, and may only need a clean takeoff to handle this maiden-20. SPECTER is a new face in what looks like a weak race. Sired by Ghostzapper, she was produced by an unraced dam that is a sibling to G1-winning sprinter Pomeroy. You don’t see many maiden-claiming first-time starters out of this stable. MY CARMELA drops from better Calbred maiden races to the rock-bottom class level and makes her first start since changing trainers.

FOURTH RACE

The first leg of the pick six includes the most probable winner on the card. PAINTING CORNERS, romping maiden-40 winner last out on the hill, figures to clear the field and lead gate to wire. Her maiden win was impressive; she set a fast pace and ran away. Two easy half-mile works since, a reliable stable, long gone at low odds. AURA ROSE has enough speed to be positioned second, and would get first run if the favorite misfires. AURA ROSES definitely has improved since switching to the downhill course, third and second with the best numbers of her career. YOU’RE LATE shows up for the first time for a claim tag, while returning to the surface (turf) on which she ran the fastest race of her career. She has no speed whatsoever, but will be rolling late.

FIFTH RACE

The debut romp two months ago by GORGEOUS GINNY remains the fastest of the meet by a 2yo maiden filly; her win by more than five lengths earned a 75 Beyer that was validated when runner-up Ismelucky returned to win. GORGEOUS GINNY, by the promising first-crop stallion Take Charge Indy and produced by G2 Hollywood Oaks winner Brookes Halo, posted a bullet workout two weeks ago in :59.40 and looms the one to catch. She will be hounded or chased from the outside by SURRENDER NOW, who scored a sharp maiden victory three weeks ago over the highly regarded Tyfosha. Two works since raced, including a sharp half-mile early this week, suggest SURRENDER NOW maintains form. BONNEVILLE FLATS won her debut nearly three months ago at Keeneland, and was purchased privately afterward. She won that four and a half-furlong race with a nice kick in deep stretch, suggesting this five and one-half furlong trip will be to her liking. All seven rivals rivals she beat first out ran back, one next-out winner in a maiden-claiming race.

SIXTH RACE

The fourth-place comeback by BLAME IT ON ALPHIE was promising, and sets her up for an allowance win second start back. The 3yo filly was making her first start since last fall, racing against older fillies and mares, and set a fast pace to deep stretch before weakening to miss by only a length. Good comeback. She drops to face her own age group, and with a race under her belt should move forward. However, she faces a pair of lightly raced and well-bred rivals whose best races also are still ahead. HEAVENLY THOUGHT, a War Front filly produced by a sibling to international multiple Group 1 winner Falbrav. ‘THOUGHT won her second start by a nose; the third- and eighth-place finishers from the race returned to win next time out. The point is, HEAVENLY THOUGHT defeated a betterthan-average maiden field. She will be rolling late. MEADOWSWEET won her career debut in a sprint; she is bred to run long. By Smart Strike, she is a sibling G1 turf route winners Courageous Cat and After Market. This turf route for 3yo fillies attracted three good contenders.

SEVENTH RACE

Freshened nearly two months after a good third in a productive race (three next-out winners), KRISTI’S COPILOT can win this $40k claiming sprint. Recently improved since being claimed by Ian Kruljac, the gelding has speed figures appropriate for this class level, and if he runs back to either of his February or March efforts, should get the job done. PRIME ISSUE is a nine-win veteran with more early speed than the top choice. In light, speed to establish position breaking from the rail, he probably is the one they all must catch. PAPA TURF has changed trainers since his okay comeback. He chased a fast pace and finished fourth. He moves into a top stable, and has enough gas to keep the second preference in his sights.

EIGHTH RACE

In a mishmash $8k claiming sprint, the call is megadropper ANXIOUS TIMES. A former allowance horse, dropping from $32k to rock bottom, freshened three months, whatever he can do these days he is likely to do first start back. His trainer has been on a roll. LONDON LEGACY does not win often, but he is in undeniable good form. Or at least he was when he was claimed two months ago from an okay third in a $6,250 claiming sprint. Up slightly in class, compared the steep drop the top choice is taking, LONDON LEGACY will be running late. PROHIBITION is a 7-for32 pro whose form tailed off in winter. Claimed in February by Bill Spawr, he returns from a layoff of nearly five months for a trainer that does super first off the claim.

NINTH RACE

ABBEY VALE is sharp, up another notch in class after sharp turf-route victories for $32k and $50k claim tags. The gelding moves up to N2X/optional $62.5k claiming, he has speed and also can finish, and in his current form can win his third straight. BLACKJACKCAT drops in class from a decent third in a G3 turf sprint. This is his third start back from a layoff, his stable is rolling, and he figures for a good trip forwardly placed. ARMS RUNNER won both starts against 3yos on the hill, then scratched from the G3 Affirmed last weekend, presumably to wait for the Oceanside Stakes on opening day at Del Mar. But here he is, stretching out in a N2X against older. He is quick enough to make the lead if he wants it, and possibly the one to catch assuming he stays in the field.