ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, LA SOLA RANGER FIRST RACE

GIANT BROWNIE making dirt and 3yo debut off a layoff, and doing it with a class drop and a positive trainer change to Rudy Rodriguez; didn’t run poorly on turf as a juveline and he has a chance to just be a better horse on this surface as a half to the multiple Grade2-winning dirt sprinter D’funnybone. BIG RAGU the other MSW dropper for an excellent trainer, and he had no chance in that NY return when getting blown out by an impressive winner in a fast race; best race came sprinting in his debut, but that race featured a fast pace and was a closers race. CASINO KING received needed class relief in his return from an extended layoff, and he has run fine both times to be second-best, without threatening to win either one; displayed some nice athleticism to avoid being totally eliminated by a hard-to-handle Mo Focused last time.

SECOND RACE

Return from the layoff for CHOW FUN an effort that is better than it may appear as she was forced to try to close from last into a race that was dominated up front by the two favorites, and she tried gamely all the way; frequently better second off the layoff, and she can get this far. FROSTY LADY dropped in class for her return to turf last time and did not run well, but she has better races to get to, and her speed makes her dangerous in this field; Servis among the very best off the claim with turf horses (past five years, 18-for-48, 38%, $2.80 ROI). PUSSY WILLOW can be closer to the lead than she has been in her last two starts, and may find herself in a more comfortable trip as she takes the drop back down in class; was in good turf form at the end of last year.

THIRD RACE

FUNTASTIC a half to top dirt router Saint Liam, as well as several other foals from this dam who had some ability, and he may have found the right field for his debut with the experienced runners having failed to approach par for the level to this point; Chad’s first time starters debuting in one-turn miles on dirt actually overachieve (past five years, 21%, $3.66 ROI). SPIETH was okay in some good races as a 2yo, and he appeared to take a step forward with blinkers and lasix makeover in his final start, where he was always contesting the pace before falling to a pair of closers; threat to improve as a new 3yo. PERFECT PARTNER has settled for second-best in all three starts so far, and he had no excuse as a heavy favorite last time, though that race was over 10 furlongs; cuts back looking to make the necessary improvement. STAN THE MAN was off slow and outrun by a fast pace in his debut, but he raced on pretty well after coming wide and can improve with that one behind him.

FOURTH RACE

QUEZON getting some class relief after trying graded stakes company in her first two starts of the year, and she may just be too good for these horses; good spot to get back on the beam before stepping back up. MOMAMEAMARIA went just 1-for-8 last year, and didn’t run particularly well in her final two starts, though they can be excused by circumstance (no chance to get her preferred position up front vs. Stonetastic in the Pumpkin Pie and synthetic in her seasonal finale); owns good speed from the outside if ready off the layoff. STORMY SKY has not run well in her first two starts of the year for a trainer who has struggled here, but she did catch sloppy tracks both times, and she is clearly quite a bit better than those performances would indicate; can rebound on a fast track, but will need her best.

FIFTH RACE

SNAP DECISION was dressed up a bit by a perfect trip and ride into a collapsing pace in his maiden win, and has lost three straight at short prices since, but one of those was a Grade 3, and he has faced good horses in his last two - though I thought he might have made things a bit closer at

the end; not a huge fan of his, but this does look like a nice spot. PERRO ROJO has not panned out as a stakes horse on dirt, something that he made abundantly clear pretty early on, but I did think he ran well when putting in a wide move to break his maiden, and he has chance to do better on this surface a half to Arlington Million winner Hardest Core. ESCAPE VELOCITY got it done, somehow, over HIEROGLYPHICS when they met back in February at Gulfstream, though that was hardly an impressive performance in a race that featured a bunched up finish; has the advantage of being lightly-raced.

SIXTH RACE

FASHION WEEK finished last in her debut, but that is a race she can build upon after getting off to a slow start, and then being forced to check with a rival dropping in front of her near the 5/16ths pole as she was moving forward; looking for well-bred filly to benefit from that race and take a step forward. HEAVENLY GRACE and TIZ SUPER debuted in the same race here last October, and both then went immediately to the sidelines; the former, who is the first foal from champion Harve de Grace, ran the better race that day after getting away slowly from the gate and then exchanging several bumps while racing between horses in the stetch, but the latter took a lot of money there and flashed good speed before giving way.

SEVENTH RACE

LA SOLA RANGER made a promising debut while encountering some trouble in both the early and late stages of that race, and she returned to flat overpower maidens last time after settling at the back of the field early and then coming with a wide run around the turn; has to get more distance here, but she looks pretty good, and getting last out maidens winners to come right back with another good performance is one of the things this trainer does very well (past five years, last out maiden win, turf route: 20-for-82, 24%, $2.84 ROI). CHURCH SOCIAL will also stretch it out here, and she has already had her chances, but she is probably better than her overall record indicates, and she ran deceptively well last time when finishing up from last after a good winner who was never giving her a chance. GRATEFUL just failed to hold a stretch lead when stretched out three furlongs last time, but she took another step forward in that spot, and she is the oinly one I want exiting that race, which also featured FLOWER VALLEY and TISBURY.

EIGHTH RACE

SEYMOURDINI stepping up a bit, and doing it at the right time after just dominating overmatched horses in his first two starts of the year; always appeared to be a talented horse, and had some high hopes for him after his strong allowance win last April on a solid pace, but things didn’t work out for him as a 3yo; chance to have a good second half if he can keep it going. TOUCHOFSTARQUALITY may be the horse to beat here, and he is clearly going to be tough with his good race, which he tends to run over this track; one thing to keep in mind is that he tends to really fire fresh, as he did last time when given a perfect trip and ride. VIRTUAL MACHINE dropping out of tough Met Mile where he was just completely overmatched, but he has improved since arriving in this barn, and his Westchester was a fine effort; has good speed.

NINTH RACE

DISCRETIONARY MARQ debuts for trainer who is solid with first time starters, and he is from a family of excellent turf performers, led by the Grade 1-millionaire Discreet Marq, who is a fullsister to this horse; experienced runners in this field are okay, but they have had their chances, for the most part. UNCLE TBONE the experienced runner I want most, as he went well while perhaps finding the seven furlongs too far in his turf debut, and he was part of a competitive pace that set the race up for subsequent stakes winner Crawdaddy last time. TOP HAT CITY was also up close in that race that was closed down by Crawdaddy last time, which was his NY debut; got in a bit tight in the late stages of that race, but thought he was getting out-finished at that point.