ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, INCLINE VILLAGE

FIRST RACE

Quarter horse race

SECOND RACE

Mule race

THIRD RACE

JACK THE CLOSER makes his first start in just over two months and is getting a drop here. The attraction? He’s 2-for-2 when racing for this tag. Has only four works since his last start, but barn does quite well after similar layoffs and has given his solid works in his most recent five-furlong works. DIXIE PISTOL is another that likes this level. He has hit the board in all three starts for this tag and has earned checks in all eight starts since coming north. He’s capable of getting the lead and holding on, which is a positive here as is his outside draw. THE DANDY MAN CAN moves back to the main track today, but this is his first start on dirt. He’s run well enough to be considered a contender, but he has lost to both of the top two picks in the past.

FOURTH RACE

GOTHAM’S PRINCESS has a pair of bullet drills including a nice three-furlong gate drill in her final prep for this. Has been training steadily for this and like the fact she does have a six-furlong work. Barn doesn’t start many first-timer’s, but the outside post should help this one’s chances. We’re expecting a bit of price as well. VIA APPIA is another first-timer. Her works have been steady but not spectacular. All three of her siblings have been winners, each with earnings in six figures. The rest of the field combined has three siblings who have won and have a combined 4-for-105 win total. That’s something to consider in this nondescript field. CALLMEJESSIEJAMES ran well in her first two starts, and, if she matches the effort in her second start, she’s likely to win here for fun. After that race, which came for this tag, she was boosted into straight maiden company and has been found wanting. Good move by sharp barn.

FIFTH RACE

INCLINE VILLAGE was claimed from the leading GGF barn in his last start when he set the pace but stopped badly as the odds-on pick. Winning first off a claim is not a barn specialty, but he has a solid bullet work since his last start. We’re expecting him to get the lead here and also expecting him not to fade this time. If he does fade, NEXT SPEAKER is likely the one to pick up the pieces. He won by a head in that race against the top pick, sitting behind him and then holding on gamely as he top pick faded. It was his first win in two years but the 11th of his career. Should be nicely positioned when the real running begins given his stalking speed. CARTOONIST had been sprinting well before an ill-fated turf route try and even then, his fractions were decent. Was the runner-up in the Oak Tree Sprint here last year and must be respected.

SIXTH RACE

CALIFO CAT is making his third start of the year and did show improvement in his second start when dropped to this level. He was a solid allowance-type runner two years ago but raced only once last year before returning to competition this May 23 months after his final race of 2015. Past classer has handled this distance nicely and seems capable of more improvement today. ROYAL ALEXEI was claimed from a win in his last main-track start and then ran evenly in a strong turf sprint last time. He has a win here on his record. He’s run well against better this year and should be a legitimate contender at his favorite distance. NORTH PACIFIC is stepping up here. He needs to show improvement, but his two wins in three starts here catches our eye.

SEVENTH RACE

PAPACLEM’SMIDNIGHT hasn’t won in some time but is dropping back into the claiming ranks at the lowest level she’s ever run at. She doe have a win over dirt, although it did not come here. Based on her form, she looks like a contender in this field, and she may offer some value as well. Has only one easy maintenance drill in the month since she’s raced, but barn shows a positive ROI after similar fresheners. MOTUTAPU is sharp. She was the third head in a photo at this level last time when stepping up after three straight wins vs. easier.

This was the tag when she broke her maiden last winter down south. BELLANZA has been running well and is coming off the best race in her career. She’s taking a big step up, but she did run second at this level earlier in her career, and she was a solid second in her lone start here.

EIGHTH RACE

CALL MY BLUFF is far from a world beater, but she’s a solid trier who is always competitive at these lower levels. She was claimed two back when she faltered late. She battled gamely through the stretch before losing a photo when favored last time. Has a pair of easy works since that last start nearly five weeks ago. Stalker gets the edge here based on her consistency this year and the fact there may be a hot pace. DIZZY TIZZY was oddson and beat the top pick the day she was claimed. She has not run since and only shows a pair of easy in the six-plus weeks since that victory. She has speed and should get a good position early with her outside post. PROPHETINPARADISE ran second in her lone start here. She’s been freshened for nearly two months and is getting a significant drop here. She lost to Motutapu, who figures to be a contender in today’s 7th race so you may want to watch that race before making a play here. She’ll be part of the pace picture so condition could be a question.