ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, ZUZU’S PETALS

FIRST RACE

Front-runner STURDY ONE can upset likely favorite S Y SKY in this N1X turf sprint. STURDY ONE set or pressed fast fractions both recent starts under identical conditions, finishing second and third. Now she catches a field in which she appears to be the controlling speed. Early lead, long gone, unless two-time stakes winner S Y SKY wears her down. The latter won her career debut in a Calbred sprint stake, followed two starts later by a win in a Calbred route stake. This is her first against older fillies and mares, and first on grass. No problem. Her speed figures are comparable to her older rivals; full brother Grazen Sky won a route stake on turf. A win by S Y SKY probably would make her the favorite for the $150k Fleet Treat Stakes (Calbred 3yo fillies) July 30 at Del Mar. LONGSTOCKING will roll from behind. Her six turf sprints produced five in-the-money finishes. LITTLE VOICE runs well fresh; this is her first start since March.

SECOND RACE

CLIFTON BEACH and BLAME JOE both drop to the maiden-20 bottom for the first time. CLIFTON BEACH has more speed than his main rival, adds blinkers, and has the five-pound apprentice aboard. Come catch him. BLAME JOE was the not disgraced in his comeback, missing by only four and a half lengths in a maiden-75 on turf. He ran well both previous starts on “fast” dirt, and will roll from behind in his second start since being transferred to the meet’s leading trainer Peter Miller. RICK’S DREAM followed his better-thanlooked third-place debut with a solid runner-up finish pressing a fast pace. He could get the right trip positioned second behind the top choice, and in front of the second choice. LIBERATION lost his chance with a slow start last time, his first at this level. This maiden-20 is actually fairly deep.

THIRD RACE

FOREVER JUANITO and potential favorite CALCULATOR are the principals in this turf sprint allowance. Only six entered, but a good field. FOREVER JUANITO returns from a four- month layoff with a history of running well fresh, established ability on the downhill course, and tactical speed that should lead to a cozy trip positioned second behind the front-runner drawn on the inside. If and when that one falters, FOREVER JUANITO should get first run. He can win if he holds off the “class” of the field. That is G3 winner, G1-placed CALCULATOR. After winning a N2X on the hillside course in his comeback, he was in a couple tough spots. He was unplaced in a G1 turf mile, and G2 dirt sprint. He returns to the allowance ranks, is arguably the “best horse” in the field, and he will be finishing. TIZ A BILLY is the aforementioned front-runner breaking from the inside. He wired easier last time, loves the hill, should clear, and is a legit wire-to-wire threat. G3 winner HOME RUN KITTEN will rally late.

FOURTH RACE

SUMMERTIMEMISCHIEF and LOVE WINNING are the only starters that have not lost at this 12.5k claiming N2L condition. SUMMERTIMEMISCHIEF is faster based on figures, gets off the rail, and has run well repeatedly at this seven-furlong “specialty” distance. LOVE WINNING ran the best race of her career last out, posting a mild upset in a maiden-30 route. She is a better filly now than when she sprinted in fall 2016. She is not particularly quick, but should be picking them up in the lane. YAVRIG and ZANAB finished four-three in a similar race last out going five and a half. The stretch out to seven furlongs could benefit.

FIFTH RACE

ARGOSY FLEET defeated a good 2yo in his debut two months ago, winning by a head at a four