ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, UNREAL BABY

FIRST RACE

With four speed runners in here, IMINDYCATBIRDSEAT has a good chance to upset the apple cart. Let’s say two turns is not in his wheelhouse therefore dismissing efforts 1 and 3 back. As for that sprint try two back, he broke 9th and found himself too far back with Kevin Smith at the helm. Second time Mora is a plus and this gelding is going to be a good price. We spy a couple of sprint tries at the Fair Grounds that fit here. STEPPIN’ OUTONHER is the one to beat if looking for an in form closer. This gelding has done his best racing on this dirt. RESILIENCE OF LOVE will try and be the speed of the speed. He escapes stakes foes in his return here. You have to respect that recent bullet drill. Now, if this was the mid 80’s where speed reined supreme then this guy would have gotten a huge bet from this handicapper but alas the days of huge speed bias’s are long gone. Too bad.

SECOND RACE

A good to great trip for FOREST DANCER as there is some speed in here. First and foremost: everyone must stay in. This mare caught off tracks in both return tries and that had to hurt. She has won on this dirt before and this is a good post for a stalking trip. O MY GIGI lures Eramia fore this and picks up two pounds. Off the pace runner has some figs that figure. CLOUD’S GHOST just ran tons better and at 48-1. Maybe she just likes it here. Maybe the short rest is why she just ran better. Can she put good races together?

THIRD RACE

LOUISIANA WOMAN is bred not to like the grass but love it. After a dirt sprint in New Orleans, connections wasted zero time finding this filly a turf spot. She pushed a slow pace and just didn’t fire but all in all it was an OK try considering it was her first time turf and first time two turns. As for what happened last out .... you got us. Maybe this filly just threw in a bad one or maybe she didn’t like Kevin Smith at the helm. A new pilot today in Eramia and connections once again find a turf race. This race holds no world beaters. CALL THE GHOST beat half the field home two back and then was stuck in the 11 hole. A much better post today. ASAMI has some decent turf tries last summer. Current form is a bit better. HAY VIENE NAVIDAD is by a 1 for 9 debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Two turf sibs failed to win but one did hit the board. FRENCH ROAST is by a 0 for 23 debut sire and a 0 for 14 debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Of 6 sibs to race, 5 won. Four sibs won on the grass with another hitting the board.

FOURTH RACE

DREAM DREAM actually ran a better than it looks fifth on the weeds last out. She caught a muddy track two back but still finished second. The class drop should do the trick. OH NO PETRINO has more speed than our top pick and a lot of these. Eramia and the class drop will make her the one to beat. KYLIE’S CUTIE can fire fresh. She just won gate to wire but foe to her right is just as quick. A small chance the big chalk lets this one go early in the belief that she is just better and that no one wins a speed duel expect the stalkers/closers.

FIFTH RACE

UNREAL BABY tried a turf route in her debut and it was at Saratoga so someone thought the grass was in her future. It didn’t work out that day nor her follow up try at Churchill on the dirt. Can’t fault Albert Stall for the class drop but new connections picked her up and have been rewarded with back to back wins including allowance foes previously. We like how she won both local tries. Of U.S. sibs, one of three won on the grass with another hitting the board. Another sib is a multiple winner in Malaysia and we have no idea what surface those came on. Another sib went 0 for 3 in Japan. This 3YO filly is improving by the second and might like the grass. SAFARI CALAMARI has the best turf figs but has only tried this sod once (missed the board). She is still the one to beat and remember that EvD has closed their turf course for the meet so expect more of these types here. MY QUEEN OLIVIA has a 404 Tomlinson turf figure and you don’t see those very often around here. Oh, she is a multiple grass winner. She might have only gotten a 62 Beyer last out but she won easily.

SIXTH RACE

SMOKEALITTLESMOKE couldn’t handle Oaklawn foes but that is no surprise. OK tries on this dirt 2 and 3 back. Her recent turf effort was solid. A good time to return to the dirt. Race flow is average with

a chance for faster if a few of these gun. MS. D’S

LAST STORM won two in a row before trying the grass last out. This barn is 2 for 4 grass to dirt. Hey, this gelding is a new route horse. SALUTETHEPRINCE has won two in a row but you can see that, right? A good post for a stalking trip if rider can simply duplicate trips of late.

SEVENTH RACE

An ALL button alert has been issued on this race. HALF A JAG is by a 14% debut sire and a 13% debut turf sire. Her dam went 6-1-0-1 for 7K (3-1-0-1 on the grass for 6K). Lone sib is 8-1-2-0 for 39K (0 for 1 on the green). Works are longer. EUNICE is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam missed the board in lone grass start. Lone grass sib is 1-0-0-0. This barn is 17% with their turf runners and they show a flat bet profit. CLEVIUS ran evenly in a couple of turf sprints last summer. Hey, it’s something. RIVER SIDE RUN is by a 0 for 1 debut sire and a 0 for 1 debut turf sire. Her dam went 20-3-1-4 for 52K (0 for 1 on the weeds). This is her first turf sib.