ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, DOWNTOWN MAMA

FIRST RACE

CORREJON has looked like a new horse since adding blinkers 2 races back. After a couple so-so outings to start his career he added shades April 20 at AQU and was a sharp 2nd, then blasted $20K maiden claimers here June 3. Yes, it’s first time vs. winners but a sharp guy in Rodriguez doubles him in value and there are 2 nice works since. DEVINE DENTAL has been knocking heads vs. tougher and maybe today’s drop in class is what the Dr. ordered. MY FRIEND did well vs. tougher at GP earlier this spring. HIs last 2 in Jersey weren’t too hot but this may be a class drop so he could rebound. That said, all his best work has come at GP.

SECOND RACE

COOL AS YOU LIKE is easily best of the familiar faces. She ran 2nd here June 17 and while she was beaten by quite a ways (12 1/4 lengths) she finished well clear of 3rd and that was her first race in 9 months so she can surely move forward with that outing under her belt. FROST WISE has shown ability, finishing a good 2nd at this level on dry land here May 19 and then finishing 3rd almost 3 lengths behind the top pick here June 17. She’s shown speed and versatility. SHE’SAKITTYKAT chased the pace in her debut here May 19 before ending up a well-beaten 4th (14 1/4 lengths). Remember, though, that was just her debut. She’s been freshened since and trainer Servis is not only having a strong meet (12 for fist 37k, 32%) but is strong 2nd time out (31%).

THIRD RACE

SHADOW RIDER, an MTO, gets the call if this comes off as he’s proven on wet going and comes here in good form. He would love to get a shot at a bunch of turf horses playing on his footing. Should this stay on, however, KANTUNE rates the call. He’s 0 for 5 on turf, yes, but he comes off a super 3rd (beaten just a neck) routing on the Widener Course here vs. tougher June 17. The drop surely helps and his speed/versatility gives his rider options. KING OF SPADES figures as one of the ones. He was only 5th in a race just like this here May 18 but a sluggish start didn’t help. He’s been freshened since and Castellano sees fit to ride.

FOURTH RACE

BEAUX ARTS, on the AE list, dueled early before finishing 2nd to a runaway winner in her debut at MTH June 23. She’s worked strongly since and it doesn’t appear she faces the strongest bunch here, if she goes. MISS MYSTIQUE has prepped well for her debut for a trainer who can fire first time out. Her 3 sibs are winners including Brenda’s Way (9 wins, $350K, SW, 5-time SP) and Yo Berbs (8 wins, $112K). CODRINGTON brings a full, steady work tab into her debut so she appears to have a foundation and some speed. Two of her 3 sibs are winners.

FIFTH RACE

SET TO DANCE hasn’t run this year but the daughter of Distorted Humor hinted at bit ability last fall/winter and has worked strongly for this first run of 2017 for a trainer who does very well off the bench. CURSOR was only 5th last time out but that was a very strong race, as winner Unchained Melody came back to win the G1 Mother Goose and runner-up Jamyson ‘n Ginger is a GSW. She faces no one like that here. KNARSDALE came out firing to duel and draw off to win her debut here April 15. The filly she beat, Holy Helena, came back to break her maiden, win the WO Oaks and then win the Queen’s Plate over males last week. This daughter of Medaglia d’Oro cost $280K and has worked nicely since for first start vs. winners.

SIXTH RACE

TIZ A CHANCE has been freshened since a nice 2nd going shorter (6fs) on the inner here at this level

May 20 despite ample trouble. Not only has he worked well since but today’s added furlong helps (he’s 2 for 2 at 7fs) and he may be at his best on this, the Widener Course (2 for 2). He has some versatility, too. POWER NAP finished strongly to win a 6f sprint at this level on the inner course here April 29 and was claimed by Rice. Not only is she superb off the claim (36%) but that win was flattered as the guy who finished just behind him in 2nd came right back to win at this level. RAPSCALLION faced tougher in Florida this winter. He’s been freshened and drops, and note a win in a race just like this here a year ago and another win at this trip over $40K foes on this course last Oct. 7.

SEVENTH RACE

Not much to really hang your hat on in here but at least HOLLYWOOD CAT has shown some semblance of turf form with 3 4fs in 3 grass tries. That all came vs. tougher straight maidens, too, so today’s drop may get her over the hump. PANA ELIANNE comes off a couple solid outings in races just like this here in recent months so she may be the one to beat. A couple nice works since her solid 4th (when beaten just 2 lengths) here last time out bode well. HOPE’S ROAR has had lots of chances but it’s encouraging that after over 15 months off she’s come back with 4 solid outings. She fits with these.

EIGHTH RACE

DOWNTOWN MAMA is off to a promising start as the $440K daughter of champion sprinter Speightstown won her first 2 starts, the first at LRL April 23 and then an easy win over N1X foes here May 27. She’s been freshened and faces tougher but she’s obviously got talent and likes it here. LITTLE MISSBUSINESS comes here sharp having won 2 straight. She was claimed in her last 2 as well and Asmussen plunked down $40K to claim her last time, and it’s a great sign he gives her a multiple-level price hike off the claim. RIOT WORTHY continues her solid form and fits well with these. She has the tactical speed to be in a good spot from the start.

NINTH RACE

LADY DEVIL whipped maidens on GP turf Feb. 10 and since posted 3 good finishes (3rd, 2nd, 2nd) vs. winners there this spring. She ran well here back in Oct. 2015 and if anything today’s slightly shorter trip can help. FIRST APPEAL may have turned the corner. After flashing talent in a few starts on dirt and in slop, she moved to turf here June 16 and blasted maidens. She faces winners for the first time but they’re all maiden winnersonly so the class hike isn’t as big as it might otherwise be. PRINCESS LU LU comes off a strong 3rd going slightly farther at DEL last month. She has speed but note a couple good races from just off the pace, so she’s no need-the-lead type.