ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, REIKI BABY

FIRST RACE

MOMENTS NOTIZ is a hard hitting nine-year-old that shows up and runs his race every time. He brings positional speed to the table and has had prior success at Los Al in the afternoons. JUANSAGAIN is likely to be a strong favorite off the Peter Miller claim, and deservedly so. The only real concern for this gelding is the distance; his best efforts have come at slightly longer distances, and he’s 0-for-4 at five furlongs. CHANGING KARMA gets needed class relief and has been one to find his way into the money in the past; he’s one to consider underneath the top two.

SECOND RACE

FLY AS A FALCON debuts for Peter Miller, and despite the gap in the work-tab from June 22 to July 5, she’s likely the filly to beat. Miller’s numbers with juvenile filly first-time starters at Los Al over the past five years are strong (4-for9, $4.44 ROI). DERBY TREASURE has an intriguing pedigree, but it’s geared more toward long distance races on turf than dirt sprints. Look for a late run here before switching to the turf at some point. SHE CAN TOO debuts for Mike Harrington, and he’s had success in the past with early two-year-olds; she could possibly get a piece.

THIRD RACE

It’s possible IRISH DAME simply didn’t care for the wet footing in her most recent start at Santa Anita. If a line is drawn through that effort on May 7, you’re left with a filly that’s won her prior two starts with competitive Beyer Speed Figures. At what should be a square price, she’s worth a look. SHE’SLUCKYTHATWAY attempted to stretch to a route of ground most recently, an experiment that didn’t work. At a more favorable distance today, she should be running on late. PASSION FOR PAPA broke her maiden in blowout fashion most recently and owns the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure in the field (72). If she can avoid getting hooked in a speed duel, she’s interesting.

FOURTH RACE

DYNAMIC SCORING has been racing this past year over surfaces he may not prefer; his lifetime record of 9-3-0-2 over fast dirt suggest that’s his preferred footing, and he gets back to that today. He’s recorded a victory over the Los Al surface in the past, and red-hot Evin Roman has the mount. ULTIMATE LUCK was hooked in a pace duel against tougher most recently and paid the price. Softer company and a softer pace scenario should work to his advantage. MY GOLDEN ONE broke his maiden nicely on April 30 at Santa Anita, but the first try against winners is never an easy task.

FIFTH RACE

Mike Puype generally doesn’t excel with first time starters, but over the past few years he’s done quite well debuting maiden claimers at Los Alamitos (3-for-11, $3.65 ROI). He debuts PRETTY EXPENSIVE here today, and it’s nice to see Roman take the call at first asking. Baffert debuts HEAVENLY MISCHIEF for a tag today, and his win percentage with firsters in maiden claimers the past three years is solid (4-for-15, 27%). GYPSY TREASURE has flashed early speed in all three of her starts to date, only to fade down the lane. Experience can go a long way, and perhaps there’s a chance she shakes loose and gets brave on the front end today.

SIXTH RACE

STRETCH looks like he could be loose on a lonely lead, and based on his recent form that could spell trouble for his competition. Today’s distance may be a slight concern, but the tactical advantage of a rated pace should allow him to succeed. VODKA TEXTED YOU exits a dead-heat victory against quarter horses on June 24, but it should be noted that he’s won in the afternoon at Los Al going six furlongs. FOOLISH TO DECEIVE has speed figures that make him a prime contender, but with a record of 12-1-0-2 he’s tough to take at a short price.

SEVENTH RACE

The owners of REIKI BABY may have gotten a bargain when purchasing this daughter of Curlin for $8,000; her career debut at Santa Anita on June 11 was visually strong, as she went and ran down a horse that was loose on a clear lead. The