ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, INSPECTOR LYNLEY

FIRST RACE

PARTING SHOT switched back to dirt for first start off a long layoff and earned the top figure in this field en route to clear cut pace-pressing win; missed some time after that race, but is back on relatively short order here after facing tougher group of $16k claimers at Monmouth 13 days ago. VALIANT SPIRIT has some legit excuses for some of those ugly early lines, and is probably better than she looks on paper, though not by too much; game try last time after contesting the pace around the turn in a race that ultimately fell to closers. CAUSEWAY CUTIE has too many 2nds/3rds on her card to get seriously interested in for win wagering, but she continues to go well and can contend here.

SECOND RACE

INTO SUMMER looked comfortable sitting a nice pace-tracking trip on the switch to turf last time, and she opened a clear stretch lead after strongly taking that race over off the turn, before she stopped finding in the late stages and was nailed by a closing winner; slight cut back helps, and she looks tough here if able to just repeat that effort. EQUALITY FOR ALL had a good trip overall and raced on through the stretch without enough to contend in debut she can benefit from; big ticket 2yo in training purchase made a late debut, and Lina, while unbelievably good with second time starters, hasn’t had much success in that sample with turf routers (past five year, maiden, second career start in turf route: 3-for-23). FOREIGN AFFAIR making first start as a 3yo off a layoff, but she went well in her career debut on turf last summer when taking back off a pace that wasn’t fast, then coming wide and finishing well.

THIRD RACE

Would’ve thought that GRAND JETE had designs on some bigger races following pair of impressive wins since arriving stateside this year, including Grade 3 win last time where she came with a strong run to overpower a modest field; tough to stand strongly against in this kind of race. BAR OF GOLD continues to find graded stakes win elusive on the main track; back to turf following empty effort in the Grade 1 Phipps, and she actually went well in her lone start on this surface back in April, where she was taken back to last before trying to sweep the field in a four-wide run. ALL IN FUN isn’t quite up to graded stakes competition on turf, and she was no match for GRAND JETE last time, but she’s pretty good, and has won each of her last two starts vs. allowance rivals.

FOURTH RACE

LOVE THAT JAZZ hasn’t won a race in over a year, but that run covers only four starts, three of them vs. the fast and talented Breakin the Fever, and the other again Weekend Hideaway; drops with the best speed from the outside post. MANIPULATED didn’t run his best when shipped to Monmouth off the Rudy/Dubb claim, but he is capable of a race that would make LOVE THAT JAZZ work for it; benefits if someone can keep up with that rival early. SALTINE WARRIOR making 7yo debut off a layoff, but doing so with a proper drop in class after getting in too tough at the end of last year; caught a race without much pace when pulling a mild upset at Saratoga last summer, but he defeated a quality field that day.

FIFTH RACE

MAZMANIA making what is essentially her 3yo debut off the layoff, and doing so while dropping in class for the first time and switching back to turf; had a very good overall trip in career debut on grass, but that was not a poor effort at all vs. better horses. RAGAZZA DI PAPA second off the layoff after settling for second-best to a sharp

winner when dropped off the layoff last month; switches to leading rider for trainer having a strong meet here. SHRINK tried a tough distance when making her turf debut off a long layoff when last seen, and she tired late after making the pace all the way down to about mid-stretch; should be tighter for second start back, for which she will also be adding lasix, and gets to go shorter this time.

SIXTH RACE

WHATS TO TALK ABOUT received a great ride in a race with plenty of pace for him to run into, and he closed that field down last time under strong handling to post his second straight win for trainer who excels with turf sprinters; tough to go right back to him after having so much go right in that last one, but he appears to have come back an improved horse as a 4yo. THE CROCHERON KID looked good winning on the route-to-sprint turnback on May 27th, a distance change he had been waiting for, though the class drop likely had something to do with that performance as well; sat a good trip before altering course in the stretch and getting out-finished by a couple of these last time, but be may appreciate the added furlong of this race a bit more than those rivals. UNCLE SIGH right back in for the price off the claim following a dull performance in race dominated up front by Black Tide last time; better than that, and tough here with his good race, but he doesn’t mind settling.

SEVENTH RACE

HOWARD BEACH a half to seven winners from this dam, who was a five-time sprint winner herself during her career; can do worse than relying on Violette to have a firster ready to go, especially 2yos in dirt sprints (past five years: 18-for62, 29%, $3.27 ROI). RAGING FIRE a half to a talented runner in Mo Maverick, from a dam who was a stakes winner in her career; Kimmel underrated with first time starters, as he reminded up a couple of weeks ago when sending out the 2yo Pacific Gale to a debut win at 16/1 odds. ENGINEERS REPORT by a solid sire and out of a dam who could run a little (3 wins, all dirt sprints, and stakes-placed with a career top Beyer of 94); Rudy solid first time out. Pay attention to scratches, as there are a couple of contenders with experience on the AE list, and this race changes quite a bit should they get in.

EIGHTH RACE

LIDO didn’t do much with a good trip last time, but she may have simply been facing some better horses in that spot, and thought she went well in her first two starts when ridden more as a closer; lightly-raced in field where some upside may go a long way. TAMIT seems like the right favorite as she drops out of Grade 3 at Gulfstream where she did her best with a good trip to land a small piece; has a layoff to overcome, but figures tough here if she improved even a little. SIGNALPATH the kind of new face that can be interesting in this kind of field, and she may have run better than it looks in each of her two turf starts, especially that last one where she had to steady early, then got boxed up in traffic around the turn. INITIATE and WARRIOR HALL obvious contenders, but not sure how good either of them are, and they figure to be over-bet in this field; would rather have the latter out of the Christiana, as she mid-moved into that race before flattening out, though INITIATE could benefit from a more aggressive ride.

NINTH RACE

Looking for INSPECTOR LYNLEY to rebound out of Makers 46 contested over a Keeneland turf course he doesn’t appear to like all that much; not a fan of that 46 as a race overall, but willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and think he is an improved horse, one who could be okay in stakes races this year. Think it goes too far to say that BLACKTYPE could have won that Makers 46 with a better trip, but there is no denying that he was compromised in that race, and he went well in the Dixie last time, as well, in a race that didn’t set up all that well for him; looks like a difficult horse to ride, but he improved with the removal of blinkers last summer. 10yo hard-hitter LUBASH not in over his head vs. the top two, though he will need his very best race to go with them; just went evenly last time after a nice trip, but that was over yielding ground that he does not appear to like anymore, and he can do better if the turf is firm.

TENTH RACE

CATANIA ROSE will have to back that last one up, but she’s a contender of she does, and thought she took a step forward there while making a good run around the turn after getting out-run early; should have a fair pace in front of her. SONG FOR THE SOUL ensures some pace as she goes from the rail with good speed making her 3yo debut; tired in lone start for a tag last year, but she laid down a fast pace that day. ZENNA also has some speed, and she will try maiden claiming company for the first time on dirt after returning from a long layoff on turf last month; better suited to this surface.