ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ROSIE P

FIRST RACE

FRANCESCO FLIER had his share of trouble in his Monmouth debut but he still earned a representative figure despite finishing off the board; draws inside here and he should be able to use his tactical speed to work out a favorable trip from just off the pace. REVIVE AND RESURGE ships in from New York and seems to fit well with the locals based on his best figures; figures to make his presence felt late. STADIUM is easy to like for exotics, though his four losses as the favorite make him a little tough to take as a win candidate if he is a short price in this opener.

SECOND RACE

SALT IT HERE was very game in defeat in that last one, pressing a quick pace and weakening only in the late stages; he’ll be tough to reel in today if he’s able to get away with an easier lead, as it seems he has to outrun only WINDCRIES early in order to establish a clear lead in the opening stages. TREE SHAKER is the main threat to the likely favorite, based on his recent Beyers and solid efforts while against the race flow; his overall win percentage does dampen the enthusiasm but he is a strong candidate for the exacta. RECAPITULATION is clearly in good form for trainer Kelly Breen and he may get first run at the top pick.

THIRD RACE

Love the works on John Servis-trained SHANE’S JEWEL, who is a half to two winners from as many starters, one a winner on the grass and the other who scored as a 2-year-old; rail draw is not ideal for an inexperienced runner but given an alert break he should be expected to show some early zip based on those breezes. GIO DUDE moves to the turf after a slow start cost him in his debut on the main track, and horses making this surface switch are always live for Jason Servis; kin to Souper Colossal, a stakes-winning turf sprinter. VINO makes his first career start for trainer Kelly Breen, who excels with 2-year-olds and grass sprinters; sports a couple of nice breezes and his dam won on the green.

FOURTH RACE

SHAKE D’ BONE seems to land in a very good spot for his first start of 2017, as he comes from off the pace and there does seem to be ample speed in this field to set up a rallier; barn scored with Huachacha, another who had been on the shelf since the fall, here last month, though this gelding won’t be 30-1 like that one was. PICKED is another absentee who apparently falls into a nice situation in his seasonal bow, as he also should benefit from the expected race flow; drop in class for his first start in almost a year hardly encouraging but he does fit very well. STRESS TEST is widest but he could be best of the speeds, he’s had trouble lasting at this distance but he’s been in much tougher spots, too.

FIFTH RACE

BELLA VINCENZA does like to run 2nd but a closer look at her grass tries since the maiden win reveals some difficult situations for her, including a run against sharp and speedy Dynatail and a couple of races where she was against the race flow; will likely have to overcome a controlled pace here but she does figure to move forward off her last try. ROYAL CASHMERE is intriguing at what should be a square price, as she could be the controlling speed against a short field that seems to be a little light on speed; she was no real threat in either of her turf route tries to date but she chased some quick splits in those races, and she figures to face a much friendlier pace scenario this afternoon. COLD HEARTED PEARL adds blinkers and figures to show more early foot today, and that could change the complexion of the race; chance for a part, at least, if she gets a forward trip on top of a mild tempo.

SIXTH RACE

ROSIE P is going to be tough to reel in today, as she not only has a big edge in terms of pace figures but she also has a pace advantage; she exits five straight races where she was against race flows which favored closers (note “C” symbols in DRF running lines) but this short field doesn’t boast a lot of early zip, and she should be able to shake loose. HANNA DUE could be the key to the race as the filly who could run with the favorite in

the opening stages as she makes her first start against winners; she will need a clean getaway from the rail in her first try breaking from this tricky post but given that she has the credentials.

DISCREETLY ROCKIN gets Bravo for her first start since she ran in the Sorority in September; main beneficiary if the top pair were to hook up in the early stages. SEVENTH RACE RUN FOR LOGISTICS has only one win in eight starts when in these abbreviated turf sprints but he faced much better on a couple of occasions, and ran into trouble in some of his other tries; versatile enough to lead or rate, and his positional speed should enable him to work out a trip despite the wide post. STARSHIP THOR failed at short prices in his last couple but he is a proven commodity as a turf sprinter and he boasts steady Beyers; easy to like. FLIGHT CREW was sharp in his first and only turf sprint try to date, and though he’s likely to again face pressure on the front end he has to be considered a threat if he can move forward even slightly off the figure he earned there.

EIGHTH RACE

HERE’S THE FUEGO didn’t get away cleanly in that last one and that cost her, as she lost any chance at getting position and she needs to be on or near the lead; this is a relatively weak field lacking a strong pace scenario and she should be dangerous with an alert getaway, as she could get first run at BANK ON THE LAKE. The latter will be prominent from the start and could well shake loose in the opening stages; she benefited from a lack of pace in the race in her maiden score but she seems to be in a similar situation today. KAREN’S CHIANTI has enough speed to stay close in the opening stages and that could be an edge if the race flow develops as expected.