ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, STONEYS MR CRUISER

FIRST RACE

TRICKORTREAT looks to be a need-the-lead type, so it’s good for him that this appears to be a relatively pace-less race; if he doesn’t hit the front for some reason, he may be unable to pass runners. The exact same can be said about SRIRACHA CAT, as he looks to be a need-the-lead type; the early pace scenario essentially boils down to these two. If someone wins this race from off the pace, perhaps it’s JOHNS JOURNEY, who has won at Los Al in the afternoon and is 3-for-8 lifetime at five furlongs.

SECOND RACE

DR. CRABBY stretches out for the first time, and while he’s had numerous opportunities at this level, he’s never routed in his life. There’s a possibility that he’s always wanted to go longer, and he makes the most sense from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint. REDNECK CRAZY goes out for John Brocklebank, and although he excels with runners making their second start off the layoff, it’s hard to trust a horse that owns a career record of 27-1-83. MOSTLY CLOUDY has the blinkers added again, and it’s heartening to know that his lone lifetime victory came here at Los Al.

THIRD RACE

HAVE SOME PRIDE showed a bit of ability in the career debut, and it helps that he appears to be facing a suspect group. The 59 Beyer he earned in his first start makes him strictly the horse to beat. Trainer Cliff Sise, Jr. has had some success recently with first time starters, however a gap in the work-tab between June 24 and July 8 for UNDETTERABLE leads to some concerns about this gelding’s readiness for his career debut. RICK’S DREAM has hit the board in all three of his lifetime starts, and it looks as though he’s one of the more likely runners to hit the board.

FOURTH RACE

MY PROJECT GIRL has the blinkers put back on in her second start for Angela Aquino. This filly ran evenly throughout in a start eight days ago, and the hope is the blinkers will sharpen her up a bit. PART OF MY HEART was recently beaten by less than a length in a quarter-horse affair, and a replica of that effort would make her a factor here. TIZ PLEASANT hasn’t been seen in more than a year, but she has a number of efforts that make her a contender to hit the board.

FIFTH RACE

SALSA KING debuts for an outfit that has historically been dreadful when it comes to first time starters (1-for-38, 1 ITM over the past five years), but he may be worth a look in what appears to be a less-than-stellar group. Two Step Salsa’s juvenile firsters win at roughly 15%, and this colt is related to a couple of horses that won as two-year-olds. FOR HIM gets needed class relief for his second lifetime start, and he could take the necessary step forward to prevail here. ISEE IT IN HISEYES debuts for Steven Miyadi, and it’s noteworthy that Evin Roman takes the mount at first asking; he’s another to consider in what looks to be an open affair.

SIXTH RACE

STONEYS MR CRUISER makes his first start for John Brocklebank, and Brocklebank has had tremendous success over the past six months with horses making their first starts after being claimed by him (4-for-14, $4.05 ROI). He should be able to stalk a reasonable pace and make his move rounding the far turn. GUY CODE gets back to his preferred footing and projects to be one of the horses involved in the early pace scenario. The concern with Guy Code is his lack of recent winning form; he hasn’t won a race since April 2016. MASTERFUL STRIDE tried the downhill turf course at Santa Anita off the layoff on June 9 and today returns to a preferred surface and distance; he’s one to give a look at a decent price.

SEVENTH RACE

TERZETTO plummets in class for John Sadler, and based on his recent form the class relief is needed. He projects to be forwardly placed throughout and could possibly wire this field. ALEX ROSSI has Beyer Speed Figures fast enough to win a race like this, but it’s hard to get excited about a runner that hasn’t won a race since February of 2015 in Peru.

A minor award is likely his ceiling. PRESIDENTSKY is consistent when it comes to speed figures; he’s very likely to register something near a 75 Beyer Speed Figure – whether that’s fast enough to win here is another story. It’s also worth noting the majority of his success has come on turf.