ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, FINAL FLURRY

FIRST RACE

FINAL FLURRY turf-to-dirt, turning back and dropping in class for second start out of this barn; prefer her dirt form to her turf form, including the lone try sprinting, during which she raced very greenly early before closing ground too late. MUSELET almost lost contact with that field on debut before making a run through the stretch to get closer, and she was okay second time out while only second-best to a front-running winner; bad stumble at the start last time. MUGU had some speed to race up close to the pace in her debut, but she lost whatever chance she had while trying to get out through the turn; can do better if she just needed that experience.

SECOND RACE

RESILIENT ONE has put aggressive tactics to good use in last two starts, taking no prisoners in the early stages before making her advantage stand up in the stretch; cut back to seven-eighths should be fine for her. PERU disappointed a bit last time, though that was a much tougher spot, but through she ran pretty well in each of her Gulfstream starts upon arrival, and her NY debut wasn’t bad at all in a race taken wire-to-wire by a big longshot; big class drop for this. MAGSAMELIA looked like a bit of a short horse first time back from the layoff, but she took a step forward last time to prevail in a race that was dominated up close; loves Belmont turf and can get this far.

THIRD RACE

RAREST QUALITY getting the benfit of the doubt for his last two starts - one on the rise in the slop abnd the other on turf; had speed in that debut run at Keeneland but bumped into a faster horse in Amigo’s Affair and could only chase him around the track, and he may be the best speed this time; has to get the mile. REFINANCE looks tough on this field with any one of his three starts to date, including his return from the long layoff where he had no chance with a runaway winner on the front-end; drops a bit more for second start back. KARMA DELIGHT back to dirt and taking the plunge after failing to factor in pair of recent turf starts; dirt races have come vs. much better horses, and he was bumped hard and then shut off at the start last time on this surface, before racing on to get 3rd.

FOURTH RACE

I STILL MISS YOU looking for third win of the meet after stepping up to take the open Astoria as a follow up to her debut win; back in with NY-breds showing a 74 Beyer that figures to make her tough. MISSBIGTIMES a stablemate of I STILL MISS YOU, and not a rival to take lightly based on debut, where she raced very greenly from the gate costing herself position, before making a nice wide run around the turn; threat to improve quickly. PURE SILVER had speed and wired that field in front of MISSBIGTIMES on debut; be no surprise to find her prevailing her for Pletcher, but she’ll have to deal with I STILL MISS YOU early.

FIFTH RACE

TALENTED ZEALOUS a guess in field of maiden claimers offering less-than-compelling form from the experienced rivals; dam posted all three career wins on grass, and while this trainer doesn’t start all that many on turf (just 2-for-14 over the past five years), he can be dangerous with a first time starter, and his newcomers generally will show some speed. PSYCHIC ENERGY and THE POOCH are the logical ones to take, but neither has done anything special on the track thus far. PSYCHIC

ENERGY chased wide and tired when dropped in class last time, and really had no excuse when controlling a modest pace in her turf debut, and whatwas the excuse for THE POOCH last time after an ideal trip in a weak field?