ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, TIDAL DANCER

FIRST RACE

BAD NANA sticks out in this five-furlong maiden dash off a wide second from post 13 in a longer $20K sprint July 1. Her only poor showing came on the grass, during which she blew the break and then made a five-wide move on the turn before tiring. FLASHY KNICKERS is plunging to where she should be a serious speed threat in her second trip postward. FRIENDSHIP RING could also wake up on the drop from $40K.

SECOND RACE

COURT SAVVY cleared the two Ontario-sired allowance conditions going long and short in his last two outings. This open N1X came up light, and he could strike again after another front-running trip under Garcia. SYNTHESIZE stalked a slow pace before weakening to fifth when he was pounded down to odds-on in a recent Tapeta route. His turf form isn’t bad, and he’s a must-use underneath in vertical wagers. DEEP FREEZE is stepping up off a game victory over $20K claimers, and could be the sleeper with a hot Campbell replacing the suspended Hernandez.

THIRD RACE

YORK RANGER has improved with each subsequent outing at the meet, and seems ready to clear the NW3 condition in this $20K claimer. This familiar jockey/trainer combo won a race on Wednesday. TITANICO is back at the level at which he was claimed, while changing surfaces from turf to the Tapeta, and should be an off-the-place threat. His trainer is 4 for 6 second-time off the claim over the past five years ($5.60 ROI). BEAR SKINNED is halving in value for his debut for a hot trainer.

FOURTH RACE

DONNAS SWEET HEART raced wide throughout after getting away slowly when beaten three and a half lengths at this level on the Tapeta two weeks ago. She was a respectable third behind Little Christmas and the future winner Alice’s War in her last turf try against tougher May 28, and could hit the board as a longshot in this grass sprint. SANITY pressed a sleepy pace before drawing off to beat $20K maidens with a good Beyer in her latest. The sharp front-runner LOOKIN PERFECT is probably the one to fear most if she draws in off the alsos. DANCIN STREET is sent out by a successful layoff trainer.

FIFTH RACE

SWEET RHAPSODY lost a nail-biter last time in a similar event, which contained two next-out winners. Her tactical speed should be an asset after she breaks from an outside post under leading rider Da Silva. DANCE ON STAGE closed down the center of the track after going four-wide on the turn en route to breaking her maiden via disqualification following a long layoff June 17. BREWS TOONIE TOSS checked in third behind the top choice as a 28-1 outsider June 20. Use her on the bottom of the exotics, along with GET SAUCY.

SIXTH RACE

BILOXI BAY is a wild card in her initial venture around two turns and her first non-turf start. She’s worked quickly on the Tapeta since a disappointing run in an open maiden special, and the drop to $40K is a step in the right direction. MICK THE CONQUEROR has been knocking on the door on both local surfaces, and shouldn’t be worse than second if he runs his usual race for Moran. CROSS BORDER is reacquiring blinkers following a subpar performance. Boulanger takes over and is 4 for 8 at the meet for the live Tiller barn. CANMORE is a longshot possibility.

SEVENTH RACE

CHIC THRILL stopped abruptly in the lane after dueling up front when returning from an extended layoff June 4 in the G3 Hendrie on the Tapeta. She’s unbeaten in three starts over Woodbine’s turf course, and is a good fit in this N2X/optional claimer, which allows for non-winners in the past year to compete. GLIDING BY rallied for second in each of her three most recent excursions. Her last turf attempt at Gulfstream was a one-length loss to Conquest Babayaga, who came back to take an N3X at Keeneland, before narrowly losing a G3 stakes at Belmont. CHIRINGUITA didn’t show much in a recent key race that was taken off the grass. Consider her for the lower slots of the exotics, along with SPARKLES’ GIRL.

EIGHTH RACE

Canada’s top sprinter, PINK LLOYD, is hard to go past in this G3 stakes over seven furlongs. He earned an average Beyer of nearly 104 in his three stakes scores during the spring, and has worked nicely since taking the June 10 Achievement by five lengths with a 106 Beyer. WE DEER YOU won an N1X here May 27, and has worked a bullet halfmile on the Tapeta at Fair Hill since capturing an N2X turf sprint at Belmont June 25. His stablemate, TALE OF THE NILE, won his June 25 season opener going away, in a six-furlong optional claimer on the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs.

NINTH RACE

CATAMOUNT is plunging from $40K to where he could be taking an edge in this $16K maiden route. This owner/trainer combo captured the opener here Wednesday with a longshot. STARINTHEMAKING battled for the lead before fading to fifth last time in a key $25K sprint. He could make most or all of the running if ABOVE ALL ODDS doesn’t run him into the ground. FINE GRIT was out-finished for the win by the heavy favorite in a recent $12.5K route. This field is tougher, but he could have a say in the outcome.

TENTH RACE

TIDAL DANCER was competitive against the likes of the future champion 2yo King and His Court and Tiz a Slam in a pair of restricted 2yo stakes last fall. The Sam-Son Farm homebred has worked extensively for trainer Malcolm Pierce, who is 9 for 20 (45%) with +180 day comebackers in turf routes during the last five years ($4.02 ROI). WILLY’S CASTLE was bottled up in traffic before closing for third when favored last time in an OS maiden special/$40K combo route on the main track. He deserves another chance on the grass. HURRICANE BEAR earned a big 82 Beyer when third in a recent maiden special turf sprint, from which the runner-up exited to graduate at the same level by disqualification. Use THE OTHER BREEZE and COLEYVILLE underneath in the exotics.