Direct Dial the call in Sanford Stakes

This is the first Saturday of Saratoga and Del Mar, meets that are obviously very good for the soul. But from a betting perspective, Saturday’s stakes offerings at these two tracks aren’t that special.

It will be very exciting to see the great Arrogate make his first start since his amazing victory in the Dubai World Cup in the Grade 2, $300,000 San Diego Handicap, but he will be a prohibitive favorite whom you can’t bet on and could never bet against. Meanwhile, the top-class Lady Eli goes in the Grade 1, $500,000 Diana at Saratoga, and even if you were inclined to tip her over, only five lined up against her, limiting betting value. And, unfortunately, there isn’t much else to choose from stakes-wise elsewhere. Not this weekend.

Sanford Stakes

There is little form to go on in this undercard stakes for 2-year-olds at Saratoga, and with no one in the field having raced more than twice, anyone is eligible to take an unexpectedly big step forward.

That said, Psychoanalyze earned this field’s best Beyer Speed Figure, a 76, in his debut win last month at Belmont. Although Psychoanalyze’s score was a 14-1 surprise, I have nothing against him. He was game in turning back a 3-5 Todd Pletcher-trained firster in Smash Williams, and the thirdplace finisher came back to win over straight maidens at Delaware Park, albeit with a Beyer two points lower than what he got when third to Psychoanalyze. I just prefer the two whom trainer Steve Asmussen has entered here – Baffin and Direct Dial.

Baffin was bet down to even-money in his recent debut at Churchill Downs and won impressively. He quickly outran eight opponents for the early lead while well in hand and drew off through the stretch while still barely being asked to score by almost five lengths. But as much as I think Baffin can win Saturday, I can only pick one horse, and I’m going with Direct Dial.

Direct Dial won his first start in a fashion similar to Baffin, only it was at Keeneland, he romped by almost eight lengths, and did so at 3-5. Direct Dial ran back in last month’s Tremont Stakes at Belmont, and after setting the pace, he finished second to the highly regarded He Hate Me, a Maryland shipper who won his prior outing at 2-5.

But what really distinguished Direct Dial’s effort for me was how game he was while running against a distinct track bias. The Tremont was run the day before the Belmont Stakes, a day when the rail on Belmont’s main track was decidedly dead. Direct Dial gravitated to that dead rail quickly and remained there for the rest of the trip.

It should be noted that Admiral Jimmy, another Sanford entrant, finished a nose behind Direct Dial when third in the Tremont after also running on the dead rail to upper stretch. But Admiral Jimmy eventually got off the inside, while Direct Dial, who did more real running anyway, never did yet still beat him.

Eddie Read Stakes

Ashleyluvssugar continues to roll along in graded stakes-winning form and will be tough to beat in this supporting feature at Del Mar. Ashleyluvssugar might be cutting back a furlong off his determined win in the 10-furlong Whittingham in his most recent appearance, but he was a narrowly beaten second in a much tougher edition of this race last year.

However, while I am concerned about Hunt’s possible loss of his positional speed, I do think he is a viable alternative to Ashleyluvssugar. Last year, Hunt was able to remain fairly close to blazing fractions in a stakes victory on the downhill course at Santa Anita. He gets blinkers Saturday, which should put him into the game earlier, and his deceptively good effort in the Seabiscuit two starts back in his 2016 finale puts Hunt right in the hunt, so to speak.

New York Derby

I know full well how Chad Brown-trained horses routinely go off as underlays, but I am still gobsmacked at how Twisted Tom went off at 9-1 in an 11-horse Belmont Stakes field. Twisted Tom isn’t even faster than the New York-breds he meets in this Finger Lakes feature.

I like Pat On the Back, who is 2 for 2 in Finger Lakes stakes and likely will route much better against statebreds than he has previously.