Quidura attractive Diana alternative to Lady Eli

At the risk of seeming like one of those gamblers who bet the “don’t pass” line at the craps table against all the more common “right way” shooters, I am playing against the popular Lady Eli in Saturday’s Diana Stakes at Saratoga.

Lady Eli is the most likely winner, but her odds are likely to be lower than her relative chances of winning, suggesting that going with an alternative at the betting windows is a sound strategy. And that alternative, who should be a square price, is Quidura.

Although beaten by fellow Diana starters Dickinson and Lady Eli in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley earlier this year, she ran competitively, finishing third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths, with a wide trip. That race also marked her first outing of 2017, as it did for Lady Eli. Now, in her third start of the year, Quidura could be poised for a peak effort.

Quidura’s start following the Jenny Wiley was a fine race, too – though again, she lost. She could not catch a loose-on-the-lead Hawksmoor, another top-class turf mare, but still finished clear of the others in the Grade 2 New York Stakes. That race earned her a career-best 100 Beyer Speed Figure.

With Dickinson coming off a somewhat disappointing third in the Just a Game, though after getting carried out in the stretch run, and with Antonoe exiting a perfect-trip victory in the same race, I view Quidura as the second-most-probable winner of the Diana behind Lady Eli. As the fourth choice in the wagering at her morningline odds of 8-1, that makes her worth playing.

Baffin in Sanford Stakes

Two-year-old colts compete one race earlier in the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes, and with all of the entrants having no more than two starts each, and with some invading from different circuits, this one is a challenging race to bet.

With fewer past performances to handicap, more emphasis obviously must be placed on trainers and their success with young horses. Partially for this reason, my choice is Baffin, a first-out winner at Churchill Downs for trainer Steve Asmussen.

A precocious son of Justin Phillip who sold for $170,000 at auction in April, Baffin went to the front in a fivefurlong race on June 22 at Churchill Downs and extended his lead at every call to win by 4 3/4 lengths.

His 68 Beyer is not flashy, but the form from the race has held up. As of this writing Thursday, two horses had returned from it to win maiden races at Ellis Park with much higher figures.

How Baffin reacts to considerable speed in the Sanford lineup is anyone’s guess, but, of course, the same concern applies to any other front-runner in the lineup. But I’m hopeful that all the schooling and preparation that Asmussen gives his 2-year-olds will leave this colt as ready as anyone. He offers value if he sticks to his 9-2 morning line.

Colonel Juan in Crowd Pleaser

Though not one of the higher-profile stakes across the country on Saturday, the Crowd Pleaser at Parx has drawn my attention. A turf race for Pennsylvania-bred 3-year-olds, it has a couple of horses who figure to draw most of the wagering dollars in the graded stakes winner Fast and Accurate and the unbeaten Presque Isle Downs invader Quick Learner.

I’m not convinced either has to win. Fast and Accurate has shown limited fight in three starts since winning the Spiral, admittedly against graded runners, and Quick Learner is stretching out to a turf route after pulling early in three races when sprinting at Presque Isle.

Those concerns leave me ready to try Colonel Juan, who ran a distant third first out with a troubled trip after getting bet down to 2-1 odds in an open maiden race at Parx that had horses with established form. Slow to get into gear that day, he made a nice middle move leaving the backstretch and into the second turn before running up on the heels of tired rivals. He then finished evenly while no match for the top two.

Now his connections are exhibiting confidence by running him in this stakes race rather than another maiden contest. Working swiftly at Parx leading into the Crowd Pleaser, he looms a major factor if he can handle the grass, something progeny of Colonel John often do. Add that all up, and Colonel Juan is interesting at his 6-1 morning line in a short field.