ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, GIOIA STELLA

FIRST RACE

MARSHALL PLAN hasn’t prevailed either of his first two starts, but he ran well enough to win both of them in races that featured fast paces that he was a part of; back to six furlongs for this after putting away a host of challengers and only succumbing late to a last-to-first closer most recently. MR. CROW exits race that is a bit tough to evaluate with first time starters running 1-2 and the experienced horses showing little, but he was game while trying to close up the rail in that spot, and doing so after getting off to a poor start; expect him to break and show more speed this time. ADULATION put in a good run after a slow start in his debut here last year, which came over a mess of a track on a day when the races were cancelled shortly after he finished 2nd, and he went on to improve in his next two starts while offering more speed; can come forward as a 3yo, but trainer doesn’t have the numbers off longer layoffs like this (past five years, 180+ day layoff, 5-for-79, 6%, $1.44 ROI, 2-for-46 with dirt sprinters in that sample).

SECOND RACE

DADDY’S HOME was more game than anything else when taking his debut after a good trip, and he did his best to no avail last time in a very strong allowance field; kind of horse who affords his trainer an excellent chance to repeat as leading trainer, as he looks very tough in this kind of race, and Chad has too many other better ones to make this a hugely negative drop. VOODOO SONG also getting a class drop here, and like him getting back to turf off the trainer change, as he ran quite well to close down maidens once clear in the stretch in his lone start on this surface as a 2yo; be no surprise to see him improve quickly here. INDIAN SCHOOL a rare Arizona shipper to the Spa, but he showed fine tactical speed on turf out there, and finished gamely to drive down an odds-on favorite two back before catching enough trouble in the stretch last time to be considered unlucky; tough post for him over this course. TIPSY KITTEN dropped in class to take a field of maidens gate to wire for an excellent trainer, and he came back nine days later to win again, that one from off the pace; getting better.

THIRD RACE

UNTAMED DOMAIN a bit of a default position in first 2yo turf route of the meet, as he is one of the few with experience, and he actually went well in that sprint debut while racing greenly and catching a bit a trouble at the top of the stretch; well-bred colt adds lasix for the stretch out. ANOTHER debuting for Mott, who has reminded us that he can win with 2yo firsters on turf at each of the last two meets up here (twice in 2015 at odds of 11/1 and 21/1, and once last year at 9/1); this one is from the first crop of turf stakes winner Soldat. ROYAL HOLIDAY the first foal from graded stakesquality Holiday for Kitten, who was effective on both turf and synthetic, but was better sprinting; prefer him over mate LINBURGH’S KITTEN, who has experience but didn’t run particularly well in that Indiana debut; only one will start with Velazquez named on both. Winning with 2yo first time starters in turf routes isn’t exactly Pletcher’s thing, though he can certainly do it (17% over the past five years, for only $1.49 ROI, and 4-for-36 at Saratoga with an $0.87 ROI); his JOHNNY ACTION has more of a main track pedigree, but he appears to have found the right kind of field.

FOURTH RACE

Struggled with 4th race full of horses dropping out of poor performances, and finally settled for VOLUNTARIO, who has finished last in each of his two most recent starts, but is second off the layoff and turning back; hard to get too worked up over that General George two back where he tried one of the better sprinters in the country in Imperial Hint. BAYERD may