ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, R LIMO JOE

FIRST RACE

NANO’S CROWN seems the class of the opener, dropping from $10,000 claimers on turf into a $6,250 race on dirt; seems as effective, or almost so, on dirt as on grass. SOLFATARA owns good numbers and remains at the same claiming level after being claimed July 8; bit prone to runner-up finishes, particularly at GP - hence the second pick. SMOKE N THE BOTTLE has notched three victories this year, all at Tampa; fourth and third in two local starts this summer.

SECOND RACE

STAY IN CRUISE enters this race with capable recent form, having run second in his last two starts against similar; chilly barn likely explains why he is 9-2 on the line and not shorter. NO DENIAL is among the classiest in the group, but hasn’t started since a fifth in a starter May 29; two very slow published works since. JUST WATCH JUST WATCH returned from a lengthy hiatus to finish second here July 1 and logically figures to be fitter this second time off the bench.

THIRD RACE

SUM QUICK CASH won first off the claim for winning connections and is now dropped sharply in claiming price vs. winners for connections known for such aggressive placement. SHOT JAK is a speedy sort that returns from a short layoff after fading to fourth in the slop June 2; better efforts have come on fast surfaces. NEPHEW HOWARD D is another that has fared best on fast tracks, going 5-1-2-1 on dry dirt. That includes a recent third against similar opposition July 6.

FOURTH RACE

Taking a chance with 8-1 outsider BIG MAMA LADY, who is returned to turf after a non-threatening fourth on dirt July 4...has a third and a seventh in two starts on grass. LANCASTER - on the board in three of her last four starts, including three straight - is at risk of a wide trip from post 12 in this 7 1/2-furlong turf race with a short run to the first turn. STARLA woke up with clear second at Tampa last out after being away for over five months, but the summer Tampa meet wasn’t much and even against this so-so lot, she is likely matched against a bit better.

FIFTH RACE

Usually the best prospects in low-end maiden claimers or lightly-raced droppers, and FOREST GATOR fits that profile... outrun first out on dirt against straight maidens, he then improved a bit when fifth after a poor start in a turf sprint. DO IT FAST keeps running competitively without winning and will likely do the same once again. PAIR PAIR TIE has twice managed a couple thirds against similar stock after regaining fitness in a May 20 comeback; only beaten a length last out but in a race run in slow time.

SIXTH RACE

PARTICULARITY has the benefit of a start, finishing third first out - whereas eight of his nine rivals are first timers. UNCLE PEPE cost just $1,200 at auction as a young horse in Nov. 2015 but is training swiftly leading up to his debut and starts for

a winning jockey/trainer combo. LITHIUM Z was another bargain purchase that has fired some quick drills leading up to his first race, including a bullet on the grass at Palm Meadows July 5.

SEVENTH RACE

ESPRESSO CALIENTE is unveiled by trainer Ralph Nicks in this maiden claimer off a steady if unspectacular worktab leading up to his debut; not the greatest of maiden claiming lineups. SEMINOLE CHARLIE has an experience edge, having twice raced, and managing a second in a maiden $25,000 claimer June 23 that likely wasn’t any softer than this maiden $35,000 race. FOREVER TAKEN has recorded a few solid moves going three or four furlongs at Gulfstream Park West, though he is negatively debuted for a price below his purchase price of $40,000.

EIGHTH RACE

In a race in which little separates the leading contenders, the edge goes to VIGAS, who is drawn well in post 2 with a short run to the first of two turns; second or third in four straight races and a respectable 2 for 12 lifetime. WEEZA GONE GRAY has enough speed to somewhat offset his draw in post 9, but is a horse that usual gives ground in the lane to settle for pieces; 2 for 28. Speedster ARIDAIOS, away since Apr. 26, is 2 for 2 at this distance but is stepped up to test N3L runners for the first time and is likely to have to deal with other speed.

NINTH RACE

SASSY SLEW just finished a clear second against low-end maiden claimers, and has the tactical speed to perform well when on or near the lead. FLYING TO STAR is among the quickest of these early but tends to grow weary in the lane; on the board in her last two but in the slop. GET ER DONE ETHEL debuts for a dangerous first-out stable and is a filly that shows a couple lively three-furlong breezes.

TENTH RACE

10-time winner HAMMERS TERROR won at this class level two back before a third most recently in a slow-paced race that didn’t suit him; a rocksolid $25,000 claimer. ADIOS NARDO and GLOBAL ENTRY have competitive Beyers and fit off recent form, though they’re outside and at risk of wide trips. Of the two, ADIOS NARDO will likely be a little better price than GLOBAL ENTRY and rates ahead of him on value.

ELEVENTH RACE

R LIMO JOE, riding a two-race win streak for this barn, is proven fresh and should fire off a layoff going back to May 28; plenty of speed and 4 for 6 at Gulf. FRENCH QUARTER fits off form and has Gaffalione up, but is a horse that has settled for pieces winning two in a row earlier in the year. RICHARD THE GREAT doesn’t seem as good as the top two but has been keeping good company and is better than he showed last out when he was farther off the pace than usual.

TWELFTH RACE

In a maiden claimer in which most every horse has a drawback, trying 12-1 outsider DISTINCTLY BREWED in the last...he is at least lightly raced and his fifth at Tampa recently was decent; perhaps capable of improving as he gains experience. COMMANDER WISE adds blinkers and is dropped in class but is stuck in post 11 with a short run to the turn; might need some luck, as he doesn’t seem fast enough to be among the leaders early. DUDE’S SEPTOR, on the other hand, looks like one of the quickest early, which may allow him to cross over from post 12. Still, he is an unknown on turf and going a route.