ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, AIRBORNE RANGER

FIRST RACE

DESERT FOLLY scored under these exact same conditions two back and he did stylishly, moving clear easily in the lane and drawing off for a decisive victory; the 73 Beyer he posted there fits nicely with this field and he’ll be very tough to deny if he’s able to run back to that figure. STARSHIP HOSTILITY gets back on the turf and this certainly does seem to be his best distance; he didn’t run all that badly on the green at Gulfstream this winter against better than what he meets today. WILDLY GOOD LOOKIN was aided by a favorable trip in his win over this course two back but he should be respected off the figure he posted there.

SECOND RACE

TOLL GUARD failed to last in his two starts on the main track but race-long duels cost him each time; there is other speed in here but if he can shake off ARCTIC SCHILLER easily enough perhaps he can last, as his recent Beyers are matched only by EXCLUSIVE PACKAGE. The latter would be the main beneficiary if the top pair were to engage in a pace battle from the start; first time for a tag, and he does have back figures that make him formidable. UNITED OCALA is kin to three starters, all of them winners; sports a couple of decent works for a barn which has better long-term stats than short with firsters.

THIRD RACE

VENEZUELAN KING was well bet for his grass debut but had an absolutely awful trip, and that cost him any chance; he still managed to finish 4th, and he still posted a decent Beyer, and that makes him very tough right back against a lesser group than he faced in that run. THAYER WEEK debuts for George Weaver, who has decent stats with first time starters; kin to millionaire Connect, winner of the Grade 1 Cigar Mile last year, and though most of his siblings were best on turf he is related to one minor grass winner. GAME NIGHT doesn’t have much speed but given an honest pace he may be able to pick up some of the pieces late.

FOURTH RACE

EBONY BALL was a very game 2nd in his first and only career start to date back in early June, dueling for the early lead and continuing well to the wire to miss by less than a length; he faces Maiden Special Weighters today but he is the one to beat on the strength of that effort and Beyer. ALL EVEN was closing nicely when forced to check in traffic in the lane last time, and he galloped out nicely past the wire; looms the main stretch threat. BILLY’S JUMP START adds blinkers after running into some trouble in his debut; expecting him to show improved speed in his 2nd career start.

FIFTH RACE

BILLYS CRYSTAL BALL showed late interest in each of his two starts at the meet and he figures to be rolling late under Nik Juarez, who picks up the mount; needs pace help but he should get it, with a couple of confirmed speeds in this line-up. POOCHY is another who stands to benefit from the expected race flow; he got little help from the frontrunners last time and he had at trouble in his run two back. SUGAR CANDY ROSE was off the board at Delaware Park last time but didn’t have clear sailing in the lane; room to move way up given a clean trip today.

SIXTH RACE

New York ship-in WIZARDLY doesn’t have the best of win percentages but he does have some of the better figures in this field; latest win was early last year but he’s been in some tough spots in terms of pace and he figures to get a favorable set-up in his local debut. D’MARIN benefited greatly from the race flow two back but he was game to score after

facing race-long pressure on the lead in his most recent; there is some potential pace pressure in this field but the return to a flat mile should work to his advantage. UNTAMED has an inside post and the tactical speed to get position; could get first run at the leaders.

SEVENTH RACE

HOPEFAITHJOY was moving well in the late stages of her latest and she also closed well when on the dirt two back in a race which set up well for the speeds; she has also shown that she can stay close if need be and that could be an edge here if the pace is controlled, a solid possibility given the relative lack of speed in this race. TEUFLES AND ROSES makes her first start off the Scott Volk claim and she is another who likes to close but may need to stay closer in the early stages; she was in against some decent allowance fields prior to her latest. DARING BRIDE was in those two allowance races and now drops in class and figures to move up for trainer Greg Sacco; back Beyers give her strong credibility.

EIGHTH RACE

SEEING ’N’ BELIEVING has been turfing of late and now returns to what appears to be her best surface; well drawn inside, and her ability to lead or rate should mean she’s able to work out a trip from the rail regardless of how the race flow develops. BANANA ANNA was overmatched in her latest and against the race flow, which favored speedtypes (note “S” symbol in DRF PP’s), in each of her two prior tries; like the top pick, she has proven versatility and figures to be well spotted. GARDEN GAMES is a stone closer reliant on pace but if she gets it she should be able to make her presence felt late; penchant for running 2nd makes her easier to like on bottom of exactas as opposed to on top.

NINTH RACE

EVERYTHING LOVELY is a professional turf sprinter, consistent in her races under these conditions and also a horse who races strictly in short races on the grass; she also has high speed, and in a race which is oddly lacking in same she may have a pace edge in the My Frenchman, which she could certainly use as she tries to knock off the boys. SNOWDAY is quick enough to stay close in the early stages and that should be an edge for him, if the race flow develops as expected; best Beyers put him in the mix. TAKE COVER could be the one they all have to beat; he’s been facing some tough fields and holding his own, and he’s quick enough to get early position despite the wide post.

TENTH RACE

AIRBORNE RANGER was off the board in each of his first five career starts but this is a very weak group, and he could be the controlling speed with an alert break; could prove tough to reel in if he’s in fact able to shake loose easily enough in the opening stages. FORTUNATE NIGHT merits respect off that 43 Beyer he posted two back; ability to stay close a plus if the fractions are indeed mild. SASSY SILK was 2nd under these conditions three back, albeit with the aid of a favorable, forward trip.