ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SORRY ERIK

FIRST RACE

LOOKS GOOD N A TUX did not earn a particularly high figure winning a low-level maiden-claiming sprint in his second career start at Golden Gate (55 Beyer), but he sure looked good doing it. The lightly raced gelding ships to Del Mar for highpercent trainer John Martin, meets a modest N2L field, and should get a good trip pressing the pace from the outside post. This is only the third career start for ‘TUX, whose maiden win was somewhat validated when runner-up Sheer Prince returned to finish second with a 63 Beyer. MIDNIGHT HARBOR is the late threat, possibly at a price. Claimed from a maiden-20 win four starts back, he was in tough his next three starts. He drops to the bottom level (for winners) for the first time; his closing style suits the pace. GOLDEN ATLANTIC is likely to make the lead, breaking from the rail. The speedster dueled through a kamikaze pace in his comeback, faded to fifth, and was claimed. He sports two sharp works since raced, and will take them as far as he can. With a race under his belt, he has a shot to steal it. TRUE RANGER will pick up the pieces.

SECOND RACE

PRAY HARD is an honest veteran claimed two months ago, freshened for the summer, and returning to the track on which he has won two of his last three starts. The speed figures he earned in spring at Santa Anita are fast enough for this $32k claiming level; trainer Doug O’Neill is 8-for32 in Del Mar sprints, first off the claim, past five years. All systems go from slightly off the pace. CHERUBIM could go favored based on his highly rated $25k claiming win early last month. He set a fast pace and kept running. He had plenty since then to recover, is drawn outside his main pace rival, and will be in the thick of it start to finish. KAABRAAJ is the aforementioned pace rival. A front-running minor stakes winner, he drops in class for his third start back from a layoff. From the inside post, he has only one apparent option. That is, speed to the lead and try to wire the field.

THIRD RACE

The fourth-place debut by GRAYCASTER was possibly better than it looks, and sets him up for an improved effort second time out. The gray had a bunch of sharp works into his special-weight debut, but factors worked against him in. The winner Serengeti crushed by 11 lengths. Also, GRAYCASTER hopped and bobbled soon after the start, then just raced evenly. He came back with three good works, drops to maiden-80, and should move up with a clean start and race under his belt. NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY flashed speed and tired in his special-weight debut, a race won by the flashy Zulfikhar. Wheeled back in two weeks, dropping in class, NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY will be among the early leaders, and is another that can move up second time out. BANK WALKER is a first-time starter by high-percent debut sire Tiz Wonderful, whose progeny have won first out at a 19-percent clip. AN OCALA TEN drops out of the Serengeti race. He had trouble negotiating the turn into the stretch in his debut. If he runs straight, he figures as a contender.

FOURTH RACE

ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR is a tough customer at the Grade 2 level, and the logical favorite to win the Eddie Read over an apparently modest field. He finished second in this race one year ago, won four stakes since, and is 10-for-22 in his career. That is the glass-half-full analysis. The glass-half-empty skepticism is his recent wins have been against suspect competition, and his odds are likely to be below fair value. He would be okay at 5-2, but doubt he will start that high. HUNT looms a potential upset candidate. He raced evenly and virtually split the field in his comeback. He adds blinkers

for his second start back, should be forwardly placed behind a tepid pace, and is likely to improve with a race under his belt. WANSTEAD GARDENS is unproven at the graded stakes level, but he has run relatively fast numbers and this stake did not come up all that deep. KENJISSTORM, a late supplement to this stakes race, might be the speed.

FIFTH RACE

Comeback gelding SUNDAY NAP showed ability last fall against better company; he flashed speed and finished third both starts against Cal-bred maiden special-weight company. He returns for a $50k claim tag, has a solid work pattern and should fire his best shot first start back. First-time starter TRAPALANDA has a long, steady work pattern for a trainer whose horses do not typically work fast in the morning. So the workouts are fine. Ron Ellis has won with four of his last nine first-time starters. The presence of apprentice Evin Roman suggests he is “live” first time out. Second-time starter DECARCHY DAWN broke poorly and finished nowhere in his debut. He drops in class for his second start; trainer Bob Hess and jockey Kent Desormeaux are 7-for-28 the past five years in Del Mar maiden-claiming races.

SIXTH RACE

SORRY ERIK took a shot against G3 company last out, and was not quite good enough finishing fourth. But his runner-up finish two back under similar N1X conditions at this nine-furlong turf distance might be good enough to defeat his stakes-winning main rival. SORRY ERIK unleashed a strong late move in that turf race, finished well, but fell short behind a winner that led start to finish. He returns to favorable conditions, and can mow them down late. However, MARCKIE’S WATER has something the top choice does not. That is, two wins at this nine-furlong distance including the $200k Snow Chief last out. Improving each start, proven at the distance, logical contender. BILLY BIG returns to the course on which he won his U.S. debut last summer followed by a third in a stakes. He did not have a particularly great trip last out while finishing fourth. This is his first try beyond a mile. KNIGHT’S DREAM has upset potential first start in two months for a stable that has been hitting with prices this season. FASHION BUSINESS might be ranked too low. He finished only three-quarters of a length behind the top choice two back, and was compromised by the race flow last out.

SEVENTH RACE

The 2yo first-time starter BAHAMIAN debuts with a series of fast works including a bullet half-mile on this track six days ago. First-crop sire Freedom Child has one winner from his first five starters; three others finished in the money. Those are promising early results for the Malibu Moon stallion. GRACIDA was purchased for $400k at a spring 2yo in training sale. He is a full brother to G1-winning filly Big World. WILD VERSE is a firsttimer starter by the excellent debut sire Wildcat Heir. SO LONG SAILOR is another San Luis Rey Downs-based first-timer from a stable that usually does well with this type. HE’S LIKE VIOLENCE is by first-crop sire Violence, who has had four winners already this year.

EIGHTH RACE

With a prep race under her belt and returning to the course on which she won a Cal-bred N1X last fall, LUCY DE can spring a mild upset over a modest cast of N1X filly-mare turf milers. She is trained by Richard Baltas, who also entered OK DOLL. The latter makes her first start since January; her abbreviated workout pattern suggests she might need one. On the other hand, her, figures are appropriate for this class level, and she is 3-for-6 under Rafael Bejarano. GIRL DOWNSTAIRS missed by less than a length last out in a $25k claiming starter, against a field comparable to this. ALL THAT HEAT will be rolling late first in two months.

NINTH RACE

The best horse in the world, ARROGATE figures to win this G2 at low odds. ACCELERATE completely misfired last out, without a visible alibi. He is a better colt than that. Several changes could wake him up. Blinkers on, new rider, and return to the track on which he won both starts last summer. DONWORTH set a fast pace and tired in his comeback. Not a bad effort actually, his first start in more than a year. Improvement is likely, although he faces a challenging pace scenario.

TENTH RACE

LUCKY SOUL only had a single sprint under his belt when he stretched to a mile and one-eighth last out. He ran well, rallying from the back to finish third by a head. Freshened two months, the lightly raced colt can mow them down late. READY AIM improved second time out, setting the pace and finishing third in a seven-furlong sprint. He is ready to run long, and probably the best speed horse in the lineup. Trainer Richard Mandella has a super recent record with maidens going turf to dirt, sprint to route. He is 4-for-8 the past two years. BORG stretches out from a highly rated sprint in which he finished fourth. ICY STREET ran well in his April debut on dirt. Sired by Street Boss, turf should be just fine.