ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, MISS MO MENTUM

FIRST RACE

MISS MO MENTUM has more speed than it may appear based on lone running line, as she got forward in that short sprint before getting bounced around between horses into the turn and losing position; that speed could serve her well here as she stretches out on turf, and this is a good move for the Casse barn (maiden, second start, first time turf, stretching out, past five years: 8-for31, 26%, $3.55 ROI). ORBOLUTION has disappointed a bit while losing as the favorite in first two career starts, though she did get off to a poor start last time over that sloppy track; bred for this stretch out, and she’s all turf on the dam side. YOU PEOPLE debuts for Mott, who has sent out three 2yo first time starters to win turf routes over the past two meets, all of them at prices; this one is out of a dam who won multiple graded stakes on turf in her career. SUREIS out of a dam who was a stakes winner on grass, and she has another foal who is a 15-time winner over turf. Not a ton of pedigree for turf with ROAD OF HONOR, who did little running first time out, but McPeek is dangerous with these horses (pace five years, maidens, second start, first on turf: 9-for-41, 22%, $3.39 ROI, including a $30 winner at this meet last year who was also ridden by Dylan Davis.

SECOND RACE

CHUBBY MASTER likely to have to show up with his absolute best in three-life claimer that comes up much tougher at Saratoga than it does elsewhere, but he has improved in first two starts for this trainer, while finding trouble in the stretch both times; price with a chance, and enough tactical speed to pull a trip in a race without a ton of pace. AZTEC SENSE another showing recent improved form, including clear-cut win with new top figure last time after having to steady on the turn; needs a trip from the rail. TOP FORTITUDE taking the drop here looking for first win since taking a Grade 3 at Santa Anita back in 2014; has obviously been facing better, but he’s also more of a one run closer in a race without the speed to set him up. SCARF IT DOWN had little chance with a sharp rival at Keeneland two back, but he dropped and managed to grind out a win last time while earning another competitive figure; goes off the claim for trainer who put together a strong meet downstate, especially with his dirt sprinters (10-for-23 at Belmont, 43%, $2.97 ROI).

THIRD RACE

UNCLE MOJO got bet for GP debut before lacking speed and failing to fire after a wide trip, but he improved quite a bit second time out with some added distance; may not have won that race anyway, but he cost himself position while having to steady at the start of that race, and he then got stuck behind horses at a crucial point as the race was getting away from him; think he could be the best speed in this field. MR CLASSICAL was whispered to be a good thing on debut at Belmont, but he looked every bit the kind of horse who needed a race while running in spots and catching some traffic behind a fast pace; be no surprise to find him improving quickly here, but he faces a tough stretch out over this track. POWERFUL ALLY got held up a bit in his route debut last time, which came in the slop, but he was racing on well enough late to be a clear 2nd behind a runaway winner; good post for first twoturn try. WEATHER WIZ looks like a contender adding lasix following 81 Beyer debut for trainer who excels with dirt routers, especially at Saratoga (past five meets, 9-for-30, 30%, $4.49 ROI); don’t love that race he is exiting, but he is eligible to improve for it.

DRIVEN WEST proved to be too much for maiden claimers right on the front end in the slop last time, but he may have run an even better race two starts back when caught up in a hard duel, and only succumbing to a closer late; turns back for trainer who is strong route-to-sprint, and with last out maiden winners. RAPID RED an interesting shipper getting a trainer change and a turn back after showing speed on turf most recently; good post on the outside for gelding who has hit the board in each of his last eight starts over fast dirt. BOURNE COUNTRY has won three of his last five starts sprinting on dirt, and he is showing improved form off the claim for an excellent trainer; rail draw no bargain and he’s up in class here, but he has an adaptable running style. PHI BETA EXPRESS got to the front and wired maidens with a figure off the trainer change; don’t love that race, but he’s tough here if managing another 87. NORTHERN likely to face more pace pressure here after walking on the lead en route to a big figure win on the drop back in May; has disappointed overall, but it’s not like that race came out of nowhere considering what was a solid debut over this track as a 2yo behind subsequent Hopeful winner Practical Joke.

FIFTH RACE

ROYAL POSSE one of many in two-turn route looking to bounce back into form following some recent poor performances; class relief helps, as does the fact that he loves this track and, especially, this trip, over which he has posted all eight wins for Rudy since being claimed back in 2015. DO YOU KNOW SOMETHING will also appreciate dropping back down out of stakes competition for this; had no chance behind Seymourdini’s 113 Beyer blowout last time, but he has otherwise been holding pretty good form in those tougher races. SEEKING THE SOUL trying to stretch it back out after closing late ground into a race that was dominated up front last time; has run some races which suggest he has some potential, but not so sure that he won’t struggle with this distance over this track. THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL the upside contender for Pletcher, and he has speed from the rail as he tries two-turns for the first time; defeated a weak field last time, but he’s still improving.

SIXTH RACE

QUESTEQ posted lone win to date in blowout fashion over a sloppy track, but she has run well on grass while not always working out the best of trips; drops back down after getting in too tough last time, and she is nicely drawn inside. THRICE appears to have much going for her in this kind of race, as she has shown some ability while remaining relatively unexposed; figures to take her share on money in here, which is the only drawback, as she goes off the claim for Weaver. PRADO VISION the right kind of new face to crew we’ve been watching around here recently, and she is taking some class relief for this; doesn’t have much early speed, but pace shouldn’t be an excuse in bigger field like this. JENNIFER’S LEGACY has some hang in her, but do think she has improved a touch since landing in Serpe barn, and she may land a nice trip from the inside. CHA CHA HEELS a contender dropping in class, but she took the worst of the draw.

SEVENTH RACE

Took the easy way out with Pletcher drop down HONOR WAY in tough $25k claiming sprint for 3yo fillies which drew a full field of 12; like that she doesn’t need the lead in race full of speed, and she was never going to win that last one over a sloppy track behind Divine Miss Grey, who came right back to win again with an 86 Beyer while up in class. TAINTED ANGEL fits this race well with her closing style, and she was a clear-cut winner over several of these when they ran this race at Belmont back on June 3rd; can be inconsistent. GOBI turning back and switching over from turf for rematch with TAINTED ANGEL, who out-kicked her in that closers race two back; didn’t appear to travel comfortably in the early stages of that race, but she raced on late, and she closed down a legit pace to win that race on April 19 after having to steady a bit exiting the chute. Not sure how much I want NISHA trying six furlongs for the first time in race packed with other speed, but she aired over that field last time for trainer who wins at a high percentage.

EIGHTH RACE

ALABAMA BOUND got away with a soft trip on the lead to post lone win to date, but it came over this course, and liked the way she rebounded to a better effort last time when laying down a fast pace in a tough spot and only giving in late; like her speed over this inner course, and there isn’t much other pace signed on. LEM ME DANCE exits same race as ALABAMA BOUND, and thought she acquitted herself well there in first route attempt to be second-best to a nice horse; can keep close from her inside post. TABLE FOR SIX never wins, but she runes every time and is always around it at the end; benefits if someone pushes the early pace. ABOUT THAT BASE a contender who had a bit of trouble last time, though not sure how much horse she actually had in that spot, and it’s not like she’ll be some kind of interesting price here. SWEET AUGUST LADY will pull her support for top connections after taking turf debut last time; like that she has some upside in this field, but she likely has to improve again.

NINTH RACE

ANIMAL APPEAL cross-entered into Monday’s Caress, but she’s tough if she elects for this race, where he speed will play; tailor made for 5.5 furlongs over this course, and she ripped off a fast pace before surviving over yielding ground in that last one, which was a nice bounce-back effort. NITE DELITE had a tough trip on a wide chase vs. the sharp Blue Bahia at Monmouth off the short layoff, but she rebounded nicely to power down a fast horse in Everything Lovely two back with a competitive figure; doesn’t need the lead to be effective, but she’ll be close. MISS KATIE MAE a closer looking for ANIMAL APPEAL to go fast fractions, and then looking for a little luck in the running, which hasn’t always been there for her; tough go last time when caught in traffic past mid-stretch.

TENTH RACE

ABEL TASMAN looking for third straight Grade 1 after closing down fast-paced Kentucky Oaks, and then making sharp run through on the inside to take the Acorn from last-to-first; interested to see if the Baffert runners from that Belmont Day card can back up those performances, but she’s clearly very tough if she does. ELATE disappointed a bit after that sharp debut win in lone start as a 2yo, but she finally got back to that solid figure when dominating only three others at Delaware last time, and it’s not unreasonable to suggest that she will be able to go with these horses as time goes on; good post for the step up. SALTY caught a bit of traffic in the Kentucky Oaks while ABEL TASMAN was out in the clear, and she came widest in the Acorn while that one was getting a run through on the inside; talented, and may not be too far behind as the second choice.

ELEVENTH RACE

MAJOR FORCE had turf debut rained off last time, and he then had to steady pretty hard as he was making a run at it in the stretch, after which he was eased off by his rider; tries again off the claim, and while this post makes things difficult, he is bred to move up on turf as a half to a pair of stakes winners, including Grade 1 winner Avenge. CHAPIN was making first start back from an extended layoff when finishing gamely for second behind a clear cut winner last time; Weaver much better second time back, but this horse may not have to improve much at all. PROGNOSTICATION second-best in both starts at this level for Chad, and there are no excuses to be had; tries again.